Depay



  • Just brought some more shares, brings my average price down which always looks nice.



  • @Sill7 said in Depay:

    Sane is a great example, I actually looked at Sane last week and thought jesus he is worth more now than he was when he is injured how can that be but when you think about it, it makes perfect sense.

    New joiners to the platform "Depay is injured now, if I buy now he will surely be worth more when he comes back fit?" it is pretty straight forward but newbies will see it as them being clever and finding an opportunity. There will be plenty of new users in the next 6 months and I honestly believe before Depay next plays a game of football he will be worth £4.50+.

    I can't see many new users buying Depay.

    They won't understand the platform, and will more than likely see Depay as an overpriced, injured player in a shit league. They won't understand why his price is so high. You only learn/accept his true value after spending a considerable amount of time on the platform.

    Over the past year, I have heard many new users question why Neymar is the most expensive player on the index. The reason they questioned it, was because Neymar was not playing, and they could not see for themselves how much of a PB monster he is when he actually plays.

    The majority of new gamblers to the platform will want big wins and instant gratification, not 6 months of slow, steady growth.



  • @Tom7471 said in Depay:

    I have only had one experience with an injury and it wasn't a good one. I bought Ruben loftus cheek two and a half months ago and his price has gone from £2.86 and now he is trading at 2.67 and he won't sell. He was meant to be back November 10th but 5 weeks on and still nothing. I don't know if this is rare but I just thought I would mention that it's not always plain sailing with injuries.

    This is massively important to understand.

    When a tactic actually becomes an identifiable trend, it no longer works as it once did. Sorry if that sounds cryptic. I'll try to explain.

    I have always bought injured players and the tactic has always worked out nicely for me.

    Now that everybody buys injured players and it has become a trend, it means that anytime a player gets injured, folk pile money in. The trend no longer works like it used to.

    The price of an injured player now recovers far quicker than it used to, due to confidence in the 'injured player' trend. Once holders realise this, they will be less likely to panic and instant sell an injured player and will be more likely to hold through the injury. The trend then becomes less effective.

    I hope that makes sense. If anyone can explain that better than me, I'd be most appreciative! 🤣



  • I understand your point. But RLC saw a rise almost every week since his injury until November. The fact he still isn't back saw another drop but the point is if you brought RLC when he got injured you would have been sat on a nice profit come November.



  • @Sill7 said in Depay:

    I understand your point. But RLC saw a rise almost every week since his injury until November. The fact he still isn't back saw another drop but the point is if you brought RLC when he got injured you would have been sat on a nice profit come November.

    I think the point I'm trying to make is, now that the 'buying injured player' tactic has become a trend, it won't be as effective as it once was.

    Having used the tactic on several holds over the past 12 months, I am now less likely to use the tactic as it has become a common and identifiable trend.

    The trick to making money on here, is to spot the trends before they become common knowledge.



  • Just on the Loftus Cheek point, here's a little update.
    The news being, there is still no return date set despite some encouraging photos from training sessions.

    https://distinctathlete.com/2019/12/17/chelseas-ruben-loftus-cheek-trains-with-the-ball-at-his-feet-as-he-steps-up-recovery/



  • Depays price has obviously took a hit short term but we all know that when he returns he will be a higher price than when he got injured and within time will be back in line as if the injury never happened. (In line with index growth)

    The way I am looking at buying depay right now is that many people saw him as one of the best holds on the index a week ago when he was £4.80. You can now buy at £3.76 which is over £1 discount.

    Does anyone believe depay would have returned close to £1 in divs between now and the time he returns from this injury? Think worst case he misses the euros and is back for for the first game of next season. I don’t think he would. Therefore the expected cap app between now and his return outweigh the expected divs between now and the his return date (if he were not to get injured).

    I get the oppertunity cost argument but I genuinely believe he may be a better investment now than he was this time last week... please give your opinion on this way of thinking.

    Thanks



  • @Dj I held big and was one of my best roi and div holds, he was defo on track to return enough divs to cover my investment over the 3 years, possibly well before 3years.

    I managed to market sell at 3.95 during the melee...

    I'm very tempted to buy back in now. The only thing is that it is acl and I'm a gooner so have seen them be the end of players... Fi wise though I think that won't matter as he will go up til he plays again.



  • @Ralph-Wiggum thanks for that



  • Reports in France this morning saying him and Lyon negotiating a new contract. Great news


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