The Transfer Pattern (Updated Research)



  • Back in summer, I googled 'Top Transfers 2018', clicked a link and worked my way through the list of players to see how prices had been impacted by their transfers. After a day of trawling over the data, looking carefully at the graphs, I identified a fairly common pattern.

    • Players typically peaked just before their transfer, then crashed hard for months on end, before rising again slowly.

    The research led me to the surprise conclusion that I should ditch Harry Maguire and buy Fred, which at the time seemed like utter madness given that this was Fred's 1 year graph.

    0_1561334089393_Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 00.54.16.png

    Looking at their 6 month graphs now though, it appears to have been the right move.

    0_1578925675704_Screen Shot 2020-01-09 at 18.57.55.png

    0_1578925690705_Screen Shot 2020-01-09 at 18.58.24.png

    Anyhow, @AllyHibs 'Transfer Tips' thread, reminded me of the research, so I've updated it with current prices below. (*I wrote this few days back, prices might have changed.)

    The Transfer Pattern

    PLAYER > NEW CLUB > PEAK > CRASH > JUNE 2019 }} UPDATED PRICE

    N'Zonzi, moved to Roma: 45p > 28p > 30p }} 41p
    Mahrez, moved to Man City: £1.15 > 65p > 90p }} £2.18
    Lenglet, moved to Barcelona: 63p > 39p > 52p }} £0.98
    Jean Seri, moved to Fulham: 73p > 40 > 53p }} £0.38* (2nd move)
    Odriozola, moved to Madrid: 64p > 35p > 44p }} 56p
    Nainggolan, moved to Inter: 61p > 22p > 31p }} 65p
    Arthur, moved to Barcelona: £1.12 > 80p > 92p }} £1.44
    Emre Can, moved to Juventus: 55p > 34p > 48p }} 95p
    Fred, moved to Man Utd: £1.06 > 62p > 64p }} £1.38
    Thomas Lemar, moved to Atletico: 95p > 59p > 82p }} £1.44
    Higuain, moved to Chelsea: £1.47 > 58p > 72p }} 69p* (2nd move)
    Courtois, moved to Madrid: 62p > 28p > 40p }} 42p
    Jorginho, moved to Chelsea: £1.34 > 87p > £1.02 }} £2.31
    Alisson, moved to Liverpool: £1.01 > 54p > 75p }} £85p* (rose to £1.11 pre-injury)
    Fabinho, moved to Liverpool: 93p > 49p > 57p }} 83p* (Injured)
    Sokratis, moved to Arsenal: 45p > 29p }} 31p
    De Vrij, move to Inter: 65p > 30 > 41p }} 60p

    Most of these players followed the same pattern. A huge spike, then a massive crash for months on end with occasional short-lived bounces, then they stabilised at the bottom and have since started to rise again.

    Joining The Premiership
    One of the interesting take-aways from this, which I think flies in the face of typical forum-user-logic, is that joining the Premier League... doesn't appear to prevent players prices from falling after the transfer. (Worth considering when looking at Bruno)

    Alisson, Fabinho, Mahrez, Higuin, Jorginho, Fred, Sokratis all joined the Premiership's top clubs and then nose dived in price, even though some won the Champions League, the Europa League and the domestic treble. These players all have different positions, ages, team seniority, but the results seem to be the same across the board. The good news is, most of them rebounded 12-18 months later. Presumably after their adjustment period at the club.

    Summary
    Players who are about to transfer will most likely drop by a significant amount, for a long period of time and in all likelihood will not have recovered fully by this time next year BUT this time next year... a portion of them MIGHT start looking super attractive... and then this time in 18 months there's a good chance they will have have bounced back even higher than they are now.

    Experiment
    Harry Maguire has dropped in price significantly since his transfer. His graph, kind of looks like Freds did back in June.

    Given that the Euro's are approaching... and the pattern that the players from 2018's big transfers followed... I'd say Maguire looks like he's probably worth a punt. It will be interesting to see where his price is this time next year.

    (Full Disclosure... I haven't bought back in to Maguire but I would if I had spare cash floating about).



  • This has convinced me that Maguire is worth a punt at the moment. I remember reading a week or two ago that @Westy had suggested he is due a rise. Consistently good on scores but just missing that win to get his price moving, I've been meaning to free up some funds since then. Along similar lines I think that vvd is due a resurgence.



  • He will be full time club captain next season, I think at some point they're going to try put some value into CBs if they can think of a way.



  • I would think the league needs to be taken into account when looking at a transfer pattern. Although Fred came from a non pb league and that didn't seem to affect much



  • @Chickenman yeh seems he just hasn't scored a goal to give him a pb win, he's got goals in him, especially for England set pieces.



  • @Westy said in The Transfer Pattern (Updated Research):

    @Chickenman yeh seems he just hasn't scored a goal to give him a pb win, he's got goals in him, especially for England set pieces.

    According to Scout, since the season started Maguire has generated 9p worth of dividends. It's not massive. To put it into perspective, Neymar has picked up 65p. If you bought £1,000 of each player at todays price (£8.24 and £1.70) and they repeat their performance,
    Neymar would generate £78.65 in divs, compared with £52.92 from Maguire. It's not worlds apart... so then it becomes about growth.

    The transfer pattern shows that players tend to drop between 40%-60% of their peak, then rise. Maguire peaked at £2.79, he's currently £1.70, he might even have a little bit further to drop before he rebounds but can he regrow to £2.25 between now and the Euro's?

    If so, a £1,000 bet on him now would generate £294 in C/A. A £1,000 bet on Neymar would need to grow £2.43 to match that.

    Is Neymar likely to reach a massive £10.67, before Maguire hits £2.25 (a price he was just 6 months ago)?



  • @Dan-The-Man Great research. I remember seeing this back when you posted originally and was very skeptical that Fred would ever be worth anything !!! But now look at him (and i just bought in at his peak annoyingly - £1.48!)

    Would also add Ismaila Sarr (own) and De Ligt i imagine too (non-owner).

    Am definitely tempted by Maguire.... does have a goal in him!
    Any other players who have had the transfer dump and due for a rise?



  • @ChazFI123 said in The Transfer Pattern (Updated Research):

    He will be full time club captain next season, I think at some point they're going to try put some value into CBs if they can think of a way.

    Taking away the ludicrous points for unsuccessful crosses should at least largely redress the balance between CB’s and FB’s.



  • @Abaalan said in The Transfer Pattern (Updated Research):

    @Dan-The-Man Great research. I remember seeing this back when you posted originally and was very skeptical that Fred would ever be worth anything !!! But now look at him (and i just bought in at his peak annoyingly - £1.48!)

    Would also add Ismaila Sarr (own) and De Ligt i imagine too (non-owner).

    Am definitely tempted by Maguire.... does have a goal in him!
    Any other players who have had the transfer dump and due for a rise?

    Yeah, De Ligt's an interesting one.

    His graph is pretty much identical to Fred's old graph and with Demiral out of action for the rest of the season, he has less competition from his own team, so the timing could be good.

    0_1578957702283_Screen Shot 2020-01-13 at 23.18.12.png

    My worry, is that many people thought he was moving to the Premiership or Barca... so the initial peak may have been much higher than it should be and Seria A, feels somewhat short of the mark. Can't see Juventus losing to Lyon though, not with Depay out of action. So yeah, could be a good shout.

    Ismaila Sarr has already fully recovered, so might have missed out on that one but I'm sure there'll be a list of top transfers from Summer 2019, that's full of transfer pattern potential.



  • @Dan-The-Man Yes de Ligt could be one to monitor. Is he still first choice for Netherlands alongside VVD do you know?

    I should have said that Sarr could be included as one of your 'recoveries' as I've been down on hiim for ages in my own port and now finally up!
    Whereas De Ligt indeed seems to be near to the bottom.

    Guess that some drops/recoveries happen over a different time period.

    Does this also mean that i should be selling Lemar and Fernandes now before there possible transfers happen?!



  • @Abaalan said in The Transfer Pattern (Updated Research):

    @Dan-The-Man Yes de Ligt could be one to monitor. Is he still first choice for Netherlands alongside VVD do you know?

    I should have said that Sarr could be included as one of your 'recoveries' as I've been down on hiim for ages in my own port and now finally up!
    Whereas De Ligt indeed seems to be near to the bottom.

    Yep, he bottomed out at that price, and 20 days later, he's on a spike plus a star man for day if nothing changes.

    Did you get on?

    Harry's up 8p since too. Looks like both were at their true bottom.

    0_1580668679648_Screen Shot 2020-02-02 at 18.37.38.png

    0_1580669029629_Screen Shot 2020-02-02 at 18.42.18.png



  • both should steadily rise over coming months. de ligt starting again and scoring today obviously helps.

    also @Dan-The-Man get on the Beta site - the old one won't be there in a couple of weeks time!



  • @Keegans-Bluff

    I use both mate.

    The search on the Beta site is vastly better than the old site but I'm more comfortable with the older site for things like looking at Match Ratings, etc. Also, I hate that for some reason, they switched the Buy and Sell buttons around... which often blags my head.



  • @Dan-The-Man sure. i just know they're going to kill the old one soon, so trying to just use Beta now so totally familiar.



  • @Keegans-Bluff

    Yeah, wise move. I didn't know there was plans to kill it any time soon, so thanks for the heads up.

    Always a risky move, making big design changes with stuff like this. They'd be wise to keep them both going as long as possible. A lot of people really struggle with change.



  • @Dan-The-Man yes, but got to do it some time. think he's done a really good job with the Beta site now.



  • @Keegans-Bluff

    I hear ya buddy.

    I find myself using it more and more often, which has felt like a smoother transition than if they had just updated it one day and forced the move.



  • @Dan-The-Man i got on Maguire but never got around to de ligt unfortunately.



  • @Abaalan

    Well, at least you're on the way with Maguire. Decent rise to come by the Euro's I reckon.



  • Do we feel that Fernandez is going to follow the same pattern ?
    How low do you think that he can go?


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