Are goalkeepers under-priced?



  • All GKs in the Index are less than £1 (Alisson is at the top @ 90p). I am trying to compare a GK with players in different positions. I selected 4 players, born in 1999 (so age is not relevant). Here are some statistics:

    Name (position), PB (MB) wins, PB average (19/20), Sofascore rating (19/20), Price

    1. Donnaruma (GK), 4(0), 91, 7.14, 70p
    2. James (DF) , 1(0), 88, 7.12, £3.65
    3. Havertz (MF), 2(0), 97, 6.86, £3.84
    4. Felix (FW) , 1(1), 71, 6.75, £3.58

    We used to hear that GKs are not PB competitive. The numbers do not agree. Donnaruma won the most PB, other scores are reasonably good compared to James, Havertz and Felix. The price is a vast difference. Could somebody let me know if I 've missed something?



  • @Victory can this data be extrapolated? Or is donuramma a one off?



  • @Victory Interested in value of div wins as well. I didn't know Donnaruma had won 4 to be honest - his win this season and one last season were both single/bronze game days but don't know about the 2 before that?
    But, I think there is definitely some value in some goalkeepers - Donnarumma probably a very good example given he's young, highly rated, competitive for PB (even if only on bronze game days) and plenty of time in his career to benefit from any future changes that may benefit GKS.



  • Donnaruma tends to win PB on single match days, usually around once per season. So for every 70p you spend on him, you're looking at approximately 2p in PB dividends per year. That's a 2.9% annual dividend, which is not good at all.

    Your other stats just highlight that there are a lot of horrifically overpriced youngsters on the Index, that deliver diddly squat at the moment in terms of dividend yields. Of course holders may argue that they'll become PB/MB beasts as they develop (which may or may not be case) or that cap app is more important. But at the moment they won't be seeing anything noteworthy by way of dividends, that's for sure.



  • As for the specific examples...its a good reason why I prefer individual player discussion than generic

    Felix was massively overhyped and price rocket on potential move to better clubs. His pb is shit at atletico but due to his spread and probably the price paid by many they will hold optimistically, maintaining a superficial high value.

    James is young and English and its more about his potential to be like trent rather than historic data. Growing stature in the team etc.

    Havertz is another wonderkid with last seasons price built in, as well as future transfer and expansion etc.

    Donuramma has been exceptional lately but until more gks can produce peak pb scores regularly, the mindset of the traders won't change. They are seen low value and because of this have quite low liquidity. Means he probably is undervalued if he can maintain that hit rate... But you back yourself to be an early adopter... How long you going to wait for the market to come to you? Goalscorers, tricksters and wonderkids will always be bought so plenty of chance to sell to market... Will be a while before goalkeepers have that appeal. (I think)



  • I keep hearing talk/Chinese whispers about some sort of 'team of the week/month' that FI are possibly rolling out.
    Anyone know anymore on this as obviously if it's a weekly thing GK will potentially be up for GK/DEF Divs as well as whatever return you'd get for making team of the week.

    Disclaimer - I may or may not have dreamt this 😁



  • @Vespasian32 Not sure. No time to compare others.



  • PB average really isn’t that important. The ability to score over 200 would indicate a good chance of winning dividends. In the last two seasons: Donnarumma has no scores over 200 in 70 appearances. James has 1/19 this season resulting in an 8p PB win. Havertz has 4/66 with quite a few other scores in the 190’s.

    The ability of outfield players to hit higher peaks routinely is the biggest advantages over GK’s. Off the top of my head I think only Dragowski and Benitez scored over 200 and that was on the old matrix. I think Dragowski might have even done it twice.



  • In short, no I don't think they are



  • @ocs123 Age is a factor in youngsters' price. I just dont understand why there is cap appreciation in James/Havertz/Felix but not Donnaruma. They are now 5 times more expensive than Donnaruma's, which means that they need to rise £1 compared to 20p of Donnaruma for the same cap app?



  • @CJ0101 Dragowski is a good shout.



  • @Victory I think your hitting on a point I was having today on twitter... Some other user was saying 'if you're right youl make even better roi on your divs' bla bla bla...

    But the market isn't about right and wrong.

    You've found someone who may be really good value, but whether is price goes up or down will be largely based on sentiment. I don't see sentiment towards gks changing... But maybe towards donuramma... For sure, if he can hit another pb win or 200+ on a gold day etc... Or a link away from Milan.

    Is he Italy number 1 now?



  • @Vespasian32 Yes, he is Italy #1.



  • If/when Donnarumma moves to a better team he’ll have less to do and his PB will decrease. Milan are cat atm that’s why he gets decent PB



  • Average required PB score for a defender to win star this season is 252. 22 defenders have won star this season but no GKs.



  • @Carport said in Are goalkeepers under-priced?:

    Average required PB score for a defender to win star this season is 252. 22 defenders have won star this season but no GKs.

    That's much higher than I'd of expected.



  • I hold quite a few GK's for several reasons;

    1. Very cheap in general so any sort of win is usually a good ROI % (most of mine are 20-40p)
    2. Periodic price spikes, usually rumour based, allow selling for cap app or refreshing IPD status
    3. Form part of a balanced portfolio
    4. They allow spare cash to be invested in holding players with very little downside, for example to maximise a deposit bonus
    5. New matrix does allow them to compete for PB Dragowski, Sepe, Guaita, Gomis & Dubravka have all won this year off the top of my head
    6. Long term they will gain some sort of extra reward, team of the week, own category or another dividend

    I think they offer great value for money where you can pick up a first team PB regular for 20-30p with a realistic chance of winning dividends.



  • Mandanda at Marseille. - 0.25p

    Almost 50% clean sheet record. 6 games in the next 30 days. So working on the assumption that he keeps 3 clean sheets. That's potentially 3p I.P.D in this period. Over 10%. Then any bonus of future announcements for goalkeepers.

    I'll admit though, I don't watch much french football so not sure if he's any good or not, this thread just got me interested to see of there were any underpriced keepers out there. This seems the one for me.

    Compared to other keepers with a similar clean sheet rate he is about half the price

    Unai Simon- 46p for example



  • @Chickenman said in Are goalkeepers under-priced?:

    Mandanda at Marseille. - 0.25p

    Almost 50% clean sheet record. 6 games in the next 30 days. So working on the assumption that he keeps 3 clean sheets. That's potentially 3p I.P.D in this period. Over 10%. Then any bonus of future announcements for goalkeepers.

    I'll admit though, I don't watch much french football so not sure if he's any good or not, this thread just got me interested to see of there were any underpriced keepers out there. This seems the one for me.

    Compared to other keepers with a similar clean sheet rate he is about half the price

    Unai Simon- 46p for example

    First clean sheet in the bag already. Plus 12% capp app already. Perhaps I'll buy into a few more keepers.



  • @Chickenman I have a few listed more than happy for you to take them off my hands 😬


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