Options elsewhere this/next week...



  • I’ve noticed the price of some well regarded players have dropped (some significantly) over the course of the last week as they clearly have no chance of media buzz dividends over the triple media days.

    Examples:
    Parejo - £2.61 down to £2.18 (43p down)
    Under - £1.51 down to £1.30 (21p down)
    SMS - £3.21 down to £3.08 (13p down)
    Bailey - £2.79 down to £2.61 (18p down)

    Are the price drops of these players big enough to warrant investment/to confidently predict them being back on the rise when the PB dividends comes back around? And also, are these players with good PB records over the past 3 months or so?

    Thanks



  • I've been wondering this too, as always the situation is slightly different depending on the player though.

    Parejo - PB scores have been consistently excellent, which is why he's steadily risen throughout the season I guess. Should rise again but not sure how much as only I don't think he'll play much of a role at WC, Valencia aren't in Europe and I don't think there's any transfer speculation. So only the 9 remaining league fixtures are relevant for him. Perhaps some long term holders thought this was a good time to get out.

    Under - Price flew when he got into the team and scored a fair few goals, although I don't think his PB scores where actually that good. No WC and Roma have Barca in CL. Probably no transfer speculation either. I'm gonna keep an eye on him but not sure he'll rise that much unless Roma spring a surprise against Barca.

    SMS - I think probably the strongest of the examples. Lazio have Red Bull in the Europa, Serbia could be the dark horses of the WC and there's a lot of hype around a possible big move to the PL with Man Utd mentioned. Solid investment I would say.

    Bailey - Again solid investment. Although there's no WC or CL/EL for him, I think there will be intense transfer speculation in the summer. Have a gut feeling he will sign for Liverpool and he would tear it up in a Klopp team I think.

    Overall could be a good time to buy into SMS and Bailey but that's just my take.



  • @Jazzman I like your reasoning on them all - specifically the long term holders thinking it's a good place to bow out on Parejo (I'm inclined to agree).

    As we all do, I'm constantly trying to find value in the market and thought this was a subtlety of the market that might be being overlooked...

    One last question...rather than getting on SMS and possibly Bailey now, you reckon they'll continue to steadily drop over the MB treble week...as in rather than buy at the prices I mentioned above, could they still lose maybe another 5-10p each? I ask this as this is my first treble MB week on the Index so am wondering how far others who aren't involved tend to plummet?



  • If people wanted to sell these players I guess they would have done already. Saying that there are always people who panic sell so hard to judge how low someone will go. If you wanted to buy these players then I guess you are planning to hold until the summer at least so even if they do go down 10-15p it shouldn't matter too much in the long run as both have good reasons to rise again.



  • @Ozzlebert said in Options elsewhere this/next week...:

    If people wanted to sell these players I guess they would have done already. Saying that there are always people who panic sell so hard to judge how low someone will go. If you wanted to buy these players then I guess you are planning to hold until the summer at least so even if they do go down 10-15p it shouldn't matter too much in the long run as both have good reasons to rise again.

    I guess I'll know more by Monday (once there's been a full week of MB winners and see how many traders get bored waiting for PB to come back into play). I guess 10/15p doesn't make too big a difference, but it's always nice to have that in your favour rather than against you.

    Hoping I can get what would be classed as a 20-25p discount on both of these players compared to if I had got them a couple of weeks back. Over the course of 100-200 in each, that does add up to a fair amount.



  • @Golfing-Grandad they could equally go up 5 -10p and then you'd miss out on that discount!

    Seriously it's hard to get it right but overall you will probably balance out the wins and losses. The closer you get the resumption of normality the higher the prices should go in my opinion.



  • @Ozzlebert I guess this is the conundrum we love to try and solve :)



  • Yes great analysis, I'd expect CL/EL games to see another big shift with treble PB for quarter finals, so players like SMS to get a rise in advance of that. Bailey looks good for transfer spec I agree.



  • I've already jumped on Parejo as I think his PB scores will see him rise in the last 2 months of the season. Plus his team are pushing hard to finish in as good a European spot as possible. I had to take a punt.



  • @John-Renwick
    Yes parejo is an absolute PB beast. Think he's got me more PB than anyone else since I joined, and I'd never heard of him before !



  • How about Nick Pope, if he gets picked on Friday, the papers love a good rag to riches story, same with when Jamie Vardy got picked for England the first time, the press proper milked it.



  • @SMacFI I looked at him last night aswell to be fair!



  • @Golfing-Grandad SMS up 3p today. Parejo up 8p. Probably people moving some money back in after the drop, did you buy in yesterday?



  • @Ozzlebert Will be keeping an eye on Parejo, if he gets some game time in Spain's friendlies will probably re-buy but with just 9 games left and no MB prospects I think his price will head down as the season winds up?

    I've been slowly selling pure PB players and buying for WC and transfer prospects, will re-stock PB players again in July / Aug - which is when I'd expect to see money going back into the likes of Parejo, Verratti, Insigne etc. etc.

    I'm not saying it's bad to buy Parejo but just think you'll need to wait a long time to see him back at the £2.60 mark let alone £2.90 where he was just a few weeks ago.



  • @Ozzlebert parejo was my secret bonus money player I wanted to get. Obviously not that secret but he wins the buzz so much I didn't want to tip everyone off that he'd dropped and then people started posting on here about him haha.

    Got him now anyway and happy with the price I've paid for next season.



  • @Stevo He was one of a few I was going to guess at yesterday but had assumed you wouldn't tell me, plus I didn't want to give away all the players I plan to buy myself ;-D



  • @Stevo I have him and am seeing a nice rise today and he is nearly out the red for me.



  • @MrYaio same for me Mr Yaio



  • Was surprised he fell so much but obviously everyone wants the buzz players at the moment and CL, EL and world cup eligible. He could possibly make the Spain world cup squad but doubt he'll play much.



  • Decent bargain basement PB option - Josip Ilicic of Atalanta

    Check out his stats, he's been in amazing form this season

    And Atalanta have a nice run of home fixtures coming up (5 of the next 7)

    Plus transfer spec Prem clubs in for him in the summer


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