Are PB / MB overrated?
Newbie here. I note that PB / MB are major factors influencing the purchase of a player, but are they overrated?
The dividends are 5p to 8p per futures. So unless you are holding >100s of futures for those players, you are not going to earn a lot of real monies.
Compared to PB / MB, should more weight be placed on the transfer speculation or prospects of a player which could see one move up 10-30% in one day?
Grateful to hear from you all!
Lastly, may I throw in a couple of names that I like for your evaluation?
Jonny Evans @ 1.19
Eric Dier @ 1.01
Doucoure @ 1.14
@JamesY if West Brom go down Evans has a 3million release clause so should see a price rise. Dier, I personally feel unless he plays well in this international break then he won't go much higher. And doucoure I think will have transfer links to bigger teams so should rise. Don't think those transfer rumours for those two will happen too nearer the end of the season tho
Also I feel the MB/PB system is good. What sort of returns are you looking for? I've made close to 20% returns on Mo Salah in less than 3 months just on dividends. And that's not including the 80ish % his price has went up for I was to sell. So I'm very happy with the platform as it is
@JamesY But why is it that transfer speculation makes a player rise rapidly? It's because it increases their chances of winning dividends for MB (and sometimes PB, depending on who is going to/from where). If you think you've spotted a player about to have a big rise then absolutely go for it, but the underlying reason for that rise is still almost guaranteed to be PB/MB.
@JamesY simple answer NO. They are literally the only thing that gives a player value and make FI a real investment platform and not another Bitcoin which is underwritten by absolutely nothing (save the black market for bitcoin). All player value is driven by their current or future potential to achieve dividends.
On a treble day pb dividend is up to 12p per cat. and 6p for star man. Also factor in that during a game day if a player looks like winning a PB then their price usually will increase as well. Ronaldo on Sunday was a good example, returned 18p in divs plus his price jumped 30p or so I think
I also on Salah got 23p (I think) per share on a treble PB day. Good money if you hold a few futures in a player. But either way a good return on your investment in them per share regardless of how many you have. Much better than you'll get for sitting you money in an ISA
Thanks, much appreciated the helpful replies!
MB and especially PB offer great ROI, certainly at levels you won’t be able to get anywhere else in such a short period of time, even let’s say a Neymar priced at £11.50 winning a 5p media day would return more than 0.4% in a day or a Pogba at £5 would return 1%, putting it into prospective a cash ISA usually returns that in one year...
Buying the players you suggested above could generate good returns IF they rise but if they have little to no check
Hanes of dividends could just result in being stagnating money not generating anything
Then again everyone is free to choose the route they see fit and invest their money where they like
My focus has always been the MB to me it's a good source of regular income, be it that I only hold 50 of each in the main players i.e Neymar, salah etc...
To me the PB since the introduction of 1000+ players over the past 6 months has diluted the chances of winning, where as the MB seems to be the same old players. I have only missed one MB day in the last 50 and have picked up a few PB's on the way. This is just my opinion and its appears to work for me and when i was chatting to one of the guys at the London meet, he said it was all about the media and to be honest i tend to agree with him.
@Gary2907 tell that to otamendi and parejo over 10 pb wins between them since november ;)
When you buy a future , all you are buying is a bet that they will PB or MB. That is it - if you are selling a player, you are selling that bet to someone else. The entire value of a player is purely based on PB and MB.
So ... what you are actually asking is are players over-rated/over-valued full stop.
When you are say "transfer speculation or prospects of a player which could see one move up 10-30% in one day?" the only reason that a player rises in value due to transfer speculation is because of the implied increased chance of PB and MB.
The question - is should players rise 10% in one day due to transfer speculation. In most cases, the answer is no.
Looking at my profits - roughly 75% of them are due to capital gains and 25% from dividends. But ... the reason for most of the capital gains is because the player was winning dividends - which is the only rational reason for a player to rise.
Speculation is over-rated. Pope went up about 40p due to the possibility of him playing for England. That doesn't make any rational sense because he is unlikely to make 40p in dividends over his career let alone from this week. Of course buying a player who is worth about 20p (Pope) for 60p is a good idea if you can sell it for 80p.
Looking at your examples - will the three of them combined return a third of the dividends that Naymar will ? Probably not so they are all over-priced. But it doesn't mean you can't make money from them if people make illogical decisions and buy them for transfer speculation.
I was lucky enough to invest in Mo Salah 11 days ago when he was £6.37 per future. Since then he has returned 49p in dividends, equivalent to a 7.7% return on investment already.
This does not include the very significant (31.4%) increase in his share price over the last 11 days.
His share price may drop a bit when the media focus turns towards someone else, but the way I look at, I have another 2 years 353 days to earn dividends before I need to sell up (because of the three-year rule), so why sell until then?
I've tried flipping players for a quick profit and I've discovered that I'm rubbish at it. In my opinion, MB and PB is vital to those (like me) who want to buy shares and hold them for a steady long term profit.
@Noirx4 I think Ronaldo, Messi, Neymar and Salah have a few PB between them plus a ton of MB😉. Each to their own otemendi doesn't interest me and neither does Pajero. Low media attention and not likely to ever move on.
@Gary2907 oh yeah i know I just specifically called out the big pb players who don't do mb too
@ocs123 Good post. I'm exactly the same as yourself. My Strategy has always been long term, I tried quick flips and I was rubbish at it. Back at the end of January I sat down and picked Players on the following,
Potential transfers in the summer
It has far surpassed my expectations, my portfolio has grown by 40%.
Dividends are what move the market so i would not say they are overrated. I would say they seem to be preferred over a price rise by a lot of traders but that comes down to each individual preference
Just started out and new to all of this. Only invested £10 on a few players as I learn more about the platform and the opportunities this creates. Personally so far I've purchased players based on potential transfers and summer performances, thinking more long term. Reading more into it I've understood more about dividends etc. Just to clarify, what is MB and PB? I'm guessing MB is Media Buzz?
Also, I read somewhere only the top players can gain media buzz but then somewhere else said players in the top 200 can gain media buzz also? So can all players gain media buzz or not?
@NewUser130585 Welcome! Yes, MB is Media Buzz and PB is Performance Buzz. That isn't happening at the moment due to the international break. The top 200 are considered the "top players" - players outside the top 200 cannot win media buzz.
To cut a long story short I'd strongly recommend you (and any other newbies reading) take 20 mins and watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozhi6ZUYmYo
Just got uploaded the other day and is way better than anything made available by the official Football Index channels!