The PB Case For 92p Fabinho (Liverpool Midfield PB Season Data)



  • Fabinho (92p)... is a Hidden Bronze Day Machine!
    I say hidden because he hasn't won PB for 2 years but rather importantly... he's only played 90 minutes on 1 'Bronze Day', since the matrix updated... It was last week and he outscored his midfield team mates.

    Just imagine for a second that Liverpool get to the Champions League Semi-Final. On FI, those games are "Single Match, Gold Days"... If Liverpool win, it's highly likely that Fabinho, only needs to outscore his team mates in order to win 8p PB, which is something he did at beginning of the season, 50% of the time that he played 90 minutes.

    The table below is broken into 2 halves, with the top half focusing on the games before Fabinho's injury. Out of the 14 games where Fabinho played 90 minutes, he outscored the Liverpool midfielders, 7 times and he did so again last week.

    0_1582392644409_Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 17.28.59.png

    Why Is That Important Short Term?
    Liverpool have 3 bronze days in the next 30 days and with Henderson out injured, Fabinho is likely to play all 90 minutes.

    What more, Liverpool are playing against West Ham on Monday... in a Bronze Day fixture.

    West Ham is a fixture where CDM Henderson won PB, without scoring... on a day where Ox scored and took home man-of-the match. Henderson won PB that day because West Ham sat back and let Liverpool pass around their defence. It's what West Ham do. Last week, Man City beat West Ham 2:0, and dominated possession, this resulted in 2 midfielders with over 300 PB and yet another CDM picking up PB (Rodri). Even Brighton's CDM, Davey Propper, picked up his 3rd highest PB score to date (164) against West Ham, in a 3-3 draw and he didn't score.

    I think this table, shows why CDM's probably do well against West Ham.

    0_1582393768209_Screen Shot 2020-02-22 at 05.40.47.png

    As @ScouseSte noted in another thread, PB machine Kostic, plays on the same day as the West Ham game, so it's by no means an easy PB win for Fabinho even if he does beat the rest of the Liverpool locker... but it's just 1 of 3 Bronze Days in a month and 1 of the possible 10, nights between now and the end of the season, where Fabinho will have a significantly higher than normal chance of winning PB.

    Why This Could Be Really Important

    If Liverpool make it through to the Final of the Champions League, they'll have 5 UCL Gold Days, where Fabinho has an above average chance of winning PB. It's unlikely he'll win all 5 times but can he win 1 out of 5? If so, 8p for a 92p player is a big PB win and coupled with his already 8p MB wins this season... he'll start looking very under priced once the Euro's are over. Look at the table and you'll see just how cheap he is compared with the other Liverpool midfielders. Hell, he's a 26 year old who's almost the same price as 34 year old Milner.

    The Downsides

    • Brazil aren't in the Euro's so he might see a short term sell off once Liverpool are done with the UCL
    • He isn't typically a goal/assist machine
    • Henderson is only out for a few weeks
    • Probably won't win PB on a standard gold day.
    • Liverpool have a tough job to progress in the UCL

    The Upside

    • He starts next season at 26y/o (not reached his prime)
    • Proven that he can beat the Liverpool midfielders often
    • He's won 8p worth of MB so far this season
    • He's underpriced because of the Euro's/Injury
    • If Liverpool progress in the UCL... his price should increase

    The Long Game

    • He'll be in his prime, during the World Cup

    I have ยฃ1350's worth. All my fingers and toes are crossed but I think I'm on a winner here until the end of the season and I can see the case for a 3 year hold too. Please feel free to point out the flaws in my logic and add any thoughts.

    *All 'PB' data collected via FI Scout with 'Game Time' data from WhoScored.



  • @Dan-The-Man so that's where the Henderson money has gone ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‰ Largely agree (Disclaimer: I hold 900 shares and plan to add to that number) I don't think henderson coming back into the team will adversely impact on Fab, he will stay at 6 and henderson will play as one of the two 8s ahead of him. I think @ChazFI123 said on another thread something about Hendo's scores being much lower when Fab is in the team and Hendo is pushed further forward. My main concern is Naby Keita. I think if he comes in and I'd expect him to against West Ham he could easily outscore Fab if he plays 90. I think Keita has the potential to get big scores in this PB matrix but he's also struggled to stay fit so god knows!!



  • @9stevo said in The PB Case For 92p Fabinho (Liverpool Midfield PB Season Data):

    @Dan-The-Man so that's where the Henderson money has gone ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‰

    Yeah, when I cashed in, I picked 1500 Cuadrado, 1500 Fabinho and a trip to Dublin.

    Cuadrado, just bagged an assist and has the Champions League game this week, which I'm hopeful about, so that's IPD. He's out performed his midfield partners lately too, so I'm hedging my Champions League bets.

    My main concern is Naby Keita. I think if he comes in and I'd expect him to against West Ham he could easily outscore Fab if he plays 90.

    Naby has a brace or two in him and he's gonna win PB on those days but I think the West Ham fixture has as much to do with how West Ham play as it does with who their opponents are. They let teams have the ball and make tons of passes. It's just one fixture though and anything could happen, so my bet's mainly that over the course of say 6-10 "Bronze" style days, Fab gets PB and if it's on the right day it could be 8p. But more importantly than actually winning the PB... I think there'll be enough people who jump on board to cause him to rise as Liverpool progress.



  • @Dan-The-Man Fair play, he must be under priced at under a pound, especially given that he's an automatic starter when fit, I have some nice Messi divs due in at midnight and I think you've just spent them for me!! Thanks buddy ๐Ÿ‘



  • @9stevo said in The PB Case For 92p Fabinho (Liverpool Midfield PB Season Data):

    @Dan-The-Man Fair play, he must be under priced at under a pound, especially given that he's an automatic starter when fit, I have some nice Messi divs due in at midnight and I think you've just spent them for me!! Thanks buddy ๐Ÿ‘

    Cool.

    To be fair, I think players like Fab have been neglected a fair amount because tons of traders were setting their port up for the Euro's so skipping out on him, hence his price being so cheap. Those players could be set for a nice rise once the Euro's is over.



  • @Dan-The-Man

    10 minutes left... Wijnaldum has a goal.... and has been climbing....

    Nervous times ha. Fabinhio is younger.

    0_1582580572609_Screen Shot 2020-02-24 at 21.41.41.png



  • @9stevo

    PB in the bag with no goal or assist.



  • @Dan-The-Man Even with Gini's goal, Fab-Man looks like he's staying ahead of him.
    Scores haven't changed, almost 10min after the game has finished.

    156 Fabinho
    154 Wijnaldum

    Nicely done.



  • @dean73

    When he does that it in the Champions League Quarters, Semi's or Final, that's when the money will fly in.

    He's a Bronze Night Machine!



  • @Dan-The-Man all three for me tonight with 1000 TAA, 1000Fab and 800 Mane, happy days, up the reds!!!



  • @9stevo said in The PB Case For 92p Fabinho (Liverpool Midfield PB Season Data):

    @Dan-The-Man all three for me tonight with 1000 TAA, 1000Fab and 800 Mane, happy days, up the reds!!!

    Milky bars are on you then ha. 1500 Fabinho for me. Never have I been so excited about winning ยฃ30 ha.

    Onwards and upwards my man. A couple more "bronze days" coming up for Fabinho in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully he can do this again and generate some buzz.

    0_1582583279952_Screen Shot 2020-02-24 at 22.27.31.png



  • @Dan-The-Man I know mate PB is like a drug, I was so fucked off when Gini overtook him with 5 mins or so to go!! Itโ€™s not even always about the money (I mean it obviously is a bit!!) I just love the feeling of winning!! ๐Ÿ˜‚ dunno why but it feels so much more satisfying than CA!!



  • @Dan-The-Man Oh yeah, that's one thing I don't like about the new site.
    You can't filter by position only, on the website at least.
    0_1582584034444_Screenshot.png
    I do occasionally have to return to the old site for some stuff, it's annoying.



  • @dean73 can you still access the old site then? You can filter by position on the iPhone app that what I use when I need that function but itโ€™s really annoying that you canโ€™t on the site



  • @9stevo said in The PB Case For 92p Fabinho (Liverpool Midfield PB Season Data):

    Itโ€™s not even always about the money (I mean it obviously is a bit!!) I just love the feeling of winning!! ๐Ÿ˜‚ dunno why but it feels so much more satisfying than CA!!

    I hear ya.

    The ยฃ30 is a nice little win but for me, it's knowing that I was able to pick a man who hasn't won PB for 2 years and highlight why specifically he would win it tonight... even though his midfield team mate scored... and why specifically him being a CDM was going to work against West Ham.

    Don't get me wrong, there's an element of luck... Wijnaldum's goal might have been the only one, Kostic might have run riot, etc... still can't help feeling a little more confident in my ability to analyse the market though. Just need him to do it in the Champions League is all ha.



  • @9stevo yup, the old site still works...
    https://app.footballindex.co.uk/
    And I can filter by position easily.
    0_1582584665283_Screenshot.png
    However, on the new site, what's the point in this...?
    0_1582584732770_Screenshot (1).png
    None of it makes any sense, why it's chosen that order specifically. It's just decided to give me all the defenders randomly, expect it's not random because if I choose to sort by position again, it gives me the same order.
    And you know why? That's right, the brilliantly thought out reason of sorting them by age, oldest first!
    WTF?!



  • @Dan-The-Man amen buddy and thanks for posting your research, I wouldnโ€™t have bought another 100 without your post so cheers, every ยฃ2 counts ๐Ÿ˜‚



  • @dean73 thanks bud, I generally do prefer the new site but thereโ€™s bits on it that are not right yet!!



  • @Dan-The-Man thanks dude I seen your post the other day and jumped on, I liked your Analysis and didn't hesitate.



  • I don't generally jump on recommendations on the forum, but bought 600 Fabinho the other day and glad I did. Out pointing Wijnaldum when he scored and Fabinho had no goals or assists is pretty impressive and he's going to be a big danger if Liverpool progress to the later rounds of the champions league.

    He's 40p cheaper than Wijnaldum and 3 years younger and more likely to be a mainstay in this Liverpool team over the next few years


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