Goalkeepers. Stay away?
Just wondering if it’s a general rule of thumb to stay away from goalkeepers? Pretty much none in the top 200 enabling MB. I bought two cheap keepers when I started up, made a good percentage and sold on.
Initially I planned on some players - De Gea, always in the media and always a top performer but he’s still around 20p away from top 200 so no MB. And Butland - almost certain he’ll be going to Russia and possibly new England number 1. Also probably move on to another club in the summer. Bound to be lots of reports on him but again, not close enough for MB.
So in the long run is it best to stay away?
What are other people’s experience with this?
General rule of thumb I would agree, I do however feel there may be some value in the England keepers in the run up to the world cup
Yeah for sure, that was my thinking. It’s just wondering at what point is stops rising I suppose. Even if they don’t get MB on FI, I reckon the rumours will still push people into buying them, pushing shares up further, especially Butland. All good learning experience though. I think with a lot of this it’s about finding your own methods that work for you and learning from doing it to honest. But good to see people’s opinions and POV.
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Goalies are pretty much pointless UNLESS they get their category which isn't due in the near future. Now the problem lies in the "near" future as that's obviously subjective.
Yes there's an outside chance of Keepers winning a pb on a day with minimal games if they keep a cs and save a pen but realistically that's just down to luck.
I firmly believe they'll get their own cat 1 day ... but it might not be for a long time and its not guaranteed.
Every time FI say they're going to announce something some jump on the chance that out might be just that (I've speculated a couple of times myself - only lost a few quid on each punt but that could soon be made back if you're first to get on the train!)
So in a nutshell - only buy them if you're playing the long game (others would argue you're missing out on profit elsewhere of course)
I'm not one of these who believes that goal keepers should have their own category as given that there's only 2 keepers (barring injuries) who can win PB in each match it would make it far too predictable and keeper prices would be disproportionate to the rest of the index. Imagine how much much DDG would be, he'd be right up the top, which personally I don't think would be right, Neymar, Messi etc are rightly at the top of the index because they are the best players in the world.
What I would like to see however, is a change to the scoring so that it gives goalkeepers more of a chance to win, although I guess that then makes it a bit more difficult for traders to predict PB
I disagree. I think it would still be an open field as to who wins it. It depends on the scoring system.presumably a clean sheet would be worth a good amount. Individual saves would be worth a certain amount and letting a goal in would take points away etc. This season Nick Pope has made the most individual saves so he could be a good scorer. And there's more than just one game on each match days so there's gonna be a group of goalies who could all win depending on how their team do that day. It's the same as when PB started everyone may well have been saying the best players in the world would always win it. And Ronaldo, Messi and Neymar do very well, but Definitely Bruyne, Pogba and other world class players do alot worse than 'smaller' names like Parejo and Otanendi who do excellently. So it would all depend on the scoring system. I feel another category could help, but it may mean more money put out by FI so might be a bit away until more countries are brought into the fold.
It's a tough one as I can see both sides of the argument, my other concern would be the impact that it would have on our current portfolios if people are moving money from their current holds and into goalkeepers
I'm on Jack Butland and have seen a very small increase from 91p to 96p. I'm hoping with the World Cup and plenty of transfer rumours over the summer (linked with Liverpool and Arsenal recently) his price will rise some more and I can sell for a nice little profit.
I've recently bought into Tom Heaton at 43p aswell, seems like a good price for someone who would be involved in the England setup if it wasn't for injury. I see he's back playing for the Burnley reserves so hopefully he'll be back in the Burnley squad soon, and his price rises. He is 31 years old so could be a bit of a risk...I'm fairly new to this so will learn from my own mistakes if it goes wrong :)
Butland is definitely a great shout, I made 9p profit per share before I sold them yesterday. He has had quite a big increase the last week but I think after tonight, his last 5 weeks of fixtures with Stoke I see his price dropping temporarily.
Like you said, it's a learning experience and for people new to the platform, myself included, it'll help give us more insight and a better idea of what to do another time :).
Just a thought, but would penalty shoots count towards PB scores? Could be a few in CL or EL but more likely in the World Cup, keepers could win a few dividends then, but otherwise I have to agree they are not worth investing
Personally i think if you're going to invest in a keeper you may as well just pick a defender from the same team, for instance I still believe there's some profit to be had from the England keepers but you'd be better off going for Maguire or Tarkowski there's just as much if not more potential growth plus far more likely to pick up a pb than a keeper if they do make the squad even if they don't they've still got a better pb chance through the prem even if it's not high
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Just giving them a 50% dividend.
If I was FI, I would be looking to make more players trade-able. Therefore in future, instead of increasing dividends, I would be looking at adding new ones. Few that spring to mind that are all priced at 50% (so 2p, 4p, 6p) would be:
-Best Runner-Up (just overall not per position)
-Best Youth Player
So this would make keepers tradeable. I think everyone would like the second of these. The third would really catch people's imagination given the interest in finding young players already. So there's a lot of benefits there for a relatively small increase in dividends (can't be bothered doing the maths properly but it would be less than a 50% increase.
@mike778 love these ideas 👍🏼
@Matt369 it’s already been confirmed that although extra time will count for pb penalty shoot outs won’t.