Flipping - Costs & Spreadsheet experts questions

  • Working through cost of selling and we know the 2% FI cut (well deserved).
    Question I have relates to the spreads. Be interesting to know:-

    1. FOOTIE (top 10) average spread between buy and sell price
      2)FOOTIE (top 11 to 200) average spread between buy and sell price
    2. FOOTIE (top 200 overall) average spread between buy and sell price

    Which would be a good rule of thumb to know on the instant sell spread when buying and selling...

    Saw - Dani Cellabos 1.10 buy this morning risen to 1.17 (transfer rumour), and now at 1.13 to sell - so an instant sell makes you 4p. If you bought 100 = £4 profit less FI comm £2.26. Would bring in £1.64 profit. Tight spread here though if 4p.

    Makes me think flipping is kind of hard..

  • First thing I would say is that indeed, flipping is kind of hard, so I don't get involved very often, but I can see a couple of things you might be missing.
    In your example, I think your maths is slightly confused, in that if your buy price was 1.10 and the instant sell price is 1.13, that's 3p profit, not 4p. As you point out, either way is going to be tricky to make much profit on.

    However, although your original question is about spreads, ideally when flipping you want to be cutting them out entirely and selling to market while your player is still on the up. If you're selling Danny Onions at 1.17 rather than 1.13 that immediately improves your position. But effectively, the rise you've noticed on Ceballos (7p) isn't a big enough one to ever be a hugely profitable flip.
    If you take a different example such as Luke Shaw the other day, who I think rose from 98p to 1.90 or so ... If you noticed the coming trend early and bought 100 at 1.00 and predicted the peak about right and sold them to market at 1.89, that's 89 pounds profit, with no loss to spread and 85.22 profit for you after FI take their 2% of 189 quid. Don't know what the spread was on Shaw about that time, but almost definitely well above the standard 3% because of the speed of his rise.

  • Yep, I agree short term flipping is hard. I've been burnt before. I think those that do this regularly do so on the off chance of a Shaw style rise, but more often than not see a Cellabos style rise, if any at all. Still, the odd rocket like Shaw could make it fairly profitable.

    On spreads, I wonder if people do this into consideration. If someone is thinking of buying into a sub £1 player for a short term flip (transfer rumour, in-play or a predicted prematch rise) maybe if that player already has a large spread that will put them off. There are a few £1 players with 6/7p spreads.

    My strategy mainly involves flipping but over a longer period, a few weeks of favourable fixtures and good performances can get 25-50p rises.

  • I've gotta agree with both these replies, a 3 or 4p rise int one you should be aiming for when flipping, you literally wanna get as much as possible. However, if u don't look at the price rise and instead look at the percentage rise. The reason the example of Shaw is positive is that it's over an 80% rise. So the 2% commission isn't a big hit. But your 4p in Ceballos isn't even 4% as he's already over £1. Think percentages and if you're only gonna get a 4p rise... Either leave it, or only take it in someone who's a low price... For example a 40p player gets a 4p rise that's 10% before commission. That's a decent return on anyone.
    A good example is Jonathan Bamba who I own. I bought him at 48p as his contract is up soon and he's told the club he'll move. He's linked with prem teams and other top 5 league teams. He's not spiked yet but is gradually going up and is 6p up at 54p. So far that's a 12.5% pre commission profit, again, that's a great return and probably more to come. So look at percentages and give yourself a target of how much you would like to make. You'll see healthier profits that way.

  • I look at what I call the 'cost to sell' quite a bit. It's basically

    (Sell price x 0.98) / Buy price

    If you deduct 1 and multiply by 100 you get a percentage, which tells you how much your portfolio value will decrease as the result of an IS. If you do a lot of IS you can expect a big fall in your portfolio, and I mean big.

    The very best 'cost to sell' on the market is generally around 4.8%. The top holds (Ronaldo, Neymar, Messi, Griezmann) are generally 5% on the nose. This seems to be the FI benchmark.

    I've seen 9% on a standard hold, not even during the fire sales we've seen with the likes of Fekir and Neymar! Just think of the players who trade at 45p with a 3p spread - the cost to sell is 8.5%!!! On a 2p spread the cost is 6.4%. Many traders overlook this, they see a 2p spread and IS their hundred, move on with their day thinking they're £2 down when in fact they are £2.86 down... Might not seem a lot but it's an extra 43% of cost that is ignored - this builds up very quickly when mass selling.

    Not sure if this answers the question but hopefully some will find a useful thought exercise.

  • @Pierrey2129 when I say that formula gives the fall in your portfolio as a result of IS I assumed that it went without saying that I mean the fall in your portfolio relating to that player only.

    For instance is cost to sell is 5% and you hold £100 work, your portfolio will fall £5.

    Reading my post back, this isn't clear and may have been confusing to some 👍

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