Oyarzabal vs Barrenetxea
Having interesting debate on twitter which I think needs more meat on the bone that can only be provided by the good people of the Official Forum.
My preferred pick: Barrenetxea
The opposition: Oyarzabal
Background: a lot of hype around kids this week with cup games and big rises. Myself among others buying/topping up wonderkids. My choice was Barrenetxea... Just turned 18, already shown some decent pb ability... Was highly touted on here months before his ipo. Getting regular minutes (not starts tho) for a pb friendly team.
However, some of the wiser heads among the community have a decent argument... Why buy Barrenetxea when for just 20-30p more you can have Oyarzabal... Who is established, good pb, 7 caps 2 goals for Spain... Potential transfer (links to city in last two windows).
My case: on the face of it, seems simple... Really good logic, oyarzabal is the better buy right? But let's look at how the index actually works and which events are more likely to cause a spike.
Barrenetxea rises from 1.90 to 2.06 on the mere prospect of starting a cup game. I made a couple comments on twitter and forum thread pre kikc off... Could some rise be attributed to pumping? Maybe... I have barely any followers tho.
For the same game... Oyarzabal did start... And scored the winning goal... And moved 1p...then one of the biggest twitter accounts pumped him (and depumped barrenetxea) and oyarzabal is another 4p up. Regardless... Total rise (before the fall cos he didn't play) 16p for Barrenetxea vs 5p for Oyarzabal.
My case part 2: oyarzabal has been a first team choice for 2 seasons, he's won pb, he's had transfer spec, he's played for Spain. His price is based on facts and therefore unlikely to rocket... I don't think he's a bad buy... Might have some spikes on Euro call up, Sociedad qualify for CL, transfer spec again (tho only a prem move likely to boost his price).
Barrenetxea however, surely there is a 50p rise or more if/when he bags a goal in La Liga? If he can go up 10-20p just for getting in team? And he has future Spain call up and transfer in the tank.
I think the best way to think about this sort of debate is playing the market how it is (me, speculating) vs playing the market how it should be (the opposition, playing safe and sensible)
I'd point to similar situations like brewster/greenwood playing a few friendliea made them more expensive than settled first team players. Greenwood overtook Rashford for example... Very similar case.
Two good buys, I am not saying not to buy Oyarzabal or talk down his price.
@Vespasian32 My view is simple. Hold both.
Oyarzabal is 22, going to the Euros with Spain and going to move to a big club this summer - Man City have been heavily linked previously.
Baranetxea is the next big thing to replace him at Sociedad and fits the current youth trend. He'll do well to be as good as Oyarzabal at 22 but that's not what you're buying. Youth equals hype for the potential of the unknown.
I cant chose between them so I haven't. For me, they are both great holds.
@janner73 yeh, the angle from me was defensive cos the tweet was about 'don't buy barrenetxea'... I don't have anything against oyarzabal, he's a good buy and i would buy him.
Some of these guys have been on for years and were able to buy the previous batch of wonderkids for 20p at ipo. They need to remember these newer batches cost £1-2 but the same mechanics apply... Hype about getting into the team and the unknown is more volatile, more exciting than established players.
One person will look at likes of odoi, brewster et al as risks cos they had a big rise and then stagnant or fall. I look at them like the best trades I ever made... The risk is once they have the big rise, not before!!
@Vespasian32 It's too logical to say don't buy Barranetxea, the market isn't logical and until he's established and we know his level it will be speculation and hype driving the price. Compared to some others in that category he's extremely cheap!
AJH1982 last edited by
@Vespasian32 I have Oyarzabal and not Barrenetxea as he feels a safer hold but still has lots going for him in the next 3-6 months. This suits my trading style. Have been tempted a few times on Barrenetxea but, i guess, i'm waiting to see if there is more to the hype. I'll undoubtedly miss some of the rise
Good thread. I looked at the two of them last month when I was wanting to add some La Liga players. I couldn’t decide so I just bought into both as I thought they both looked value to me.
MickTurbo last edited by
@Vespasian32 I was on about Oyarzabal recently. Hes only topped 200 for PB twice in nearly 100 games. A 202 with a GWG and a 261 with 2 goals, an assist and a GWG. He seems to have just been granted 'good hold' status but if the other kid is half the player ppl think then its reasonable to expect at least a comparable output in PB. Add to that Oyarzabals most likely next club, city. There he will be rotated and will have the spectre of a european ban looming. I hold neither but would favour the other one
Barrentexea is 1 to 2 years away from transfers and spain in all reality.
Oyazerbal has all that now.
It’s pretty simple to me.
Oyazerbal is a trade for 6 months.
Barrentexea could be a good one next season.
Doug s last edited by
Is Barrenetxea 's dad/uncle the manager???
Or is it just same name.
I held Barrenetxea but bought at his peak and lost my nerve when he was -23p a share and dived onto the Bruno train which was good.
@Doug-s yes his dad is the manager 😂
I also bought at peak and was down, topped up and topped up... Now in profit and was looking very healthy until the teamsheet came out last night.
Another 2 games in quick succession... Another chance of a start... Especially Tuesday night vs Eibar, after a grueller vs Barca on Saturday
@MickTurbo savage, you're right... Even I just consider oyarzabal a pb player or sorts. Still maintain he'll spike on events... Euros call up, cl (if stays at sociedad) etc... Sentiment is obvs strong with him. But more and more data guys will pull up stuff like this as his price rises. 👍 I've posted this on twitter as its a very good point.
Martyn B last edited by
Good informative thread. With a cash balance of £5 I have added Barracuda (or whatever) onto my recently restored watchlist. Seeing how well my watchlist is performing compared to my portfolio I am sure his short term future is good.
Coriolanus last edited by Coriolanus
@MickTurbo pb per 90 min last 6 months (this season) ... Barracuda 190, oyarzabal.. 105.
Small sample size for barren, but that's pretty good considering he hasn't scored in a pb game this season (I believe?)... 1 senior goal was vs Madrid at the back end of last season.
MickTurbo last edited by
@Vespasian32 yeh despite what ive said I do think theres cap app there in the relatively shorter term. Hes got a bit going for him in terms of being a forward who plays off the front at a decent club but his yield hasnt been great
Barrentexea has an average pb of 27 over 10 games with a max of 166 according to footyindex scout.
This is league games. The 166 correlates with is spike in Jan along with a goal in a copa del Rey game.
Where the hell is 190 from?
@Tom77 per 90 mins, not per game. Obvs per game is gona be low as he only comes on for 10-20 mins
@Vespasian32 said in Oyarzabal vs Barrenetxea:
Yeah thats totally misleading.
@Tom77 Look at Billy Gilmour's performance score average per 90 mins on FI for the past 6 months. That would've been misleading.
@Tom77 how is it misleading... any more than giving his pb average? per minute is more meaningful than per game of the two methods. Not that averages matter... peaks do. But as he hasn't played 90 mins yet theres not a lot we can tell about his pb, other than that it could be far worse... he looks pb friendly.