Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!



  • Having spent the majority of of my hours discussing the falling stock-markets with clients I have spent some time considering the impact to my FI holdings.

    Firstly we must consider the average investor in both, from all I can see and know is that most clients view there stockmarket holdings as medium to long term and generally have not invested all there spare cash in the markets.

    However it does seem that a high proportion of FI customers have short term money tied up in FI and as befits a gambling site have probably overstretched themselves due to deemed "easy money".

    Most stockmarket investors have also put aside a pot of cash for rainy days whilst over the last year there have been ample forum discussions on borrowing to invest in FI leading me to conclude that plenty of users have little in the way of an emergency fund.

    Therefore as seems it seems very likely that over the next few months incomes will be reduced or cease then the money in FI will be needed for everyday bills etc for many traders.

    My worry is that the moment FI were to reduce spreads all those gamblers with money in the platform will instant sell out of need and if spreads do not reduce they may still have to instant sell as there bills mount up.

    It leads me to conclude that large spreads are here for a long time as if they are reduced even when football restarts too many people will need to draw there balance. This is the reality of the situation and not FI's fault and if we are patient and stay invested we will be fine but it may take a lot longer than some are predicting.



  • @Fletch i see the theory but its a negative opinion. If we get some positive news regarding football matches and the 150000 newbs strt throwing down then it will prevent the big fish with 50kplus from wanting to take it out to pay bills, I understand people are going to lose ther jobs but this is a gambling product and not the same as the stock market. People use the stock market instead of banks which I very much doubt is the same for FI. Also the stock market is known for being built on loans.



  • I'm sure there will be some people with way more cash in here that they should have due to bad decisions or bad luck depending on how you view it but I don't think there is any way the spreads are reducing until football restarts whenever that may be.

    Wouldn't have thought those are the bigger players tho? People who were willing to invest £50k or £100k in the index I'd hope aren't in any immediate financial trouble and can afford to ride the dip until things get back to normal and the market goes back up.



  • @kaka8

    Unfortunately it is the truth and reality of the situation and the forum is for opinions. I understand it is a downbeat short term (up to 9 months) prediction it is a thought through honest opinion rather than a random negative thread which we often see.

    We often forget that us as users of the forum are more affiliated to the product but you just have to look at the daily price swings of players on match days to see that it has attracted a much more short term gambler type. Who bet cash in then bet again.

    Employees are already being asked to take unpaid holidays and the self employed are seeing jobs being cancelled/delayed this will happen more over the next 6 weeks before it gets better.

    With the average UK family having less than £1,000 in the bank for a rainy day it stands to reason that there will be plenty of traders using FI (not possibly on the forum) that will need there cash.

    Now due to the mechanics of FI if the company has enough free cash to work through this downturn they will eventually benefit from buying back shares at vastly reduced prices before selling them again at better prices but my point is simply that if you are a long term FI trader expect prices to reduce before they get better.



  • Banks and credit providers must be loving it



  • Likewise isn't ittrue that people turn to betting/gambling and so on when cash is short.. might actually benefict the index



  • In my view it is up to FI to attract 'customers' (meaning potential high dividend yealds) and should they do a good job the product should remain strong



  • Having said all that i agree with your assessment of the situation



  • @Paco said in Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!:

    Having said all that i agree with your assessment of the situation

    Anything else you'd like to add? 🤔🤣😘



  • @johnboywalker said in Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!:

    @Paco said in Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!:

    Having said all that i agree with your assessment of the situation

    Anything else you'd like to add? 🤔🤣😘

    You never know.. but i think thats it for now



  • This post is deleted!


  • @Holdenio said in Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!:

    Why is instant sell turned off for premier players like Werner and Grealish?! I’m willing to take the massive hit on the spread....

    Best change ur name then eh . . .



  • @nicky540 said in Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!:

    @Holdenio said in Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!:

    Why is instant sell turned off for premier players like Werner and Grealish?! I’m willing to take the massive hit on the spread....

    Best change ur name then eh . . .

    I've a few suggestions ...

    Daftinio
    Retardo
    Moronaldo
    🤣🤣



  • @Fletch

    I underestimated the impact of Corona on the football world, so please don't think I'm poo-pooing your thoughts here as you could indeed be right.

    That said... I believe what we have seen so far, is an exaggerated version of the 'Season End Sell Off', where PB players lose their value and MB players take over. Some folk were faster than others to act and the swing to MB coincided with Corona fear, as well as PB crashes for unexpected Champions League failures such as Liverpool. (Hence the likes of Trent dropping 60p.)

    If we look at how PB big hitters such as Messi, Neymar, Kimmich and Banega finished their 2018/19 season, we can see that they all dropped significantly in price as the season came to a close. Messi and Neymar both lost over £1 in a month, Kimmich dropped 12%, Benega fell 33%. Some of these were deeper drops than what have seen so far.

    0_1584414859591_Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 03.12.30.png

    Rightly or wrongly, I dare say many of us on here believe this is similar to when a player is injured, with growth all but guaranteed to follow. Usually there are two dips when a player is injured... one when the injury happens and another when we find out how long for... my guess is, we've had the first dip and the size of the second dip, will depend purely on how long football is out... but as we get closer to the season return we'll see fast growth in PB players, just as we did in July/August.

    Growth has unquestionably flattened but looking at the index, we're still seeing certain players increase over a 24 hour period, which shows that money is going in/moving as punters are adjusting to the new conditions. Would you be surprised to see the FOMO kick in for players like Trent once the next fixtures are announced?

    0_1584411297776_Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 02.14.18.png

    0_1584411305999_Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 02.14.30.png

    In the meantime, FI will no doubt keep stimulating the Index and I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of extra promotion over the coming months. Perhaps they'll move their media review forward... or start rumours of a share split... or come up with a ton of new dividends for us to get excited about. It's in their interest to keep this train moving... even if that means they take a short term loss to restore confidence. Can you imagine the marketing boost this will be for the platform, if they can get the index rebounding faster than the stock markets? It could encourage some big fishes to take the platform more seriously going forward.

    Perhaps it's just wishful thinking on my part but it's worth looking at the likes of Italy.... we here in the UK are 3-4 weeks behind them.... or put another way... they are 3-4 weeks ahead of us in the recovery process... Could it be that we see Serie A return before the Premiership? It could lead to cycles of spikes for each division as they all eventually return...



  • @Fletch

    I saw your other post and that you referenced this one in response to @Coriolanus ... so I went back to look. You were certainly on the right track but read my response... then look at the graph for Trent...

    I called it bang on, explaining that when the fixtures were announced we'd see cycle spikes in each league as football returned, that players would rocket as fomo kicked in when fixtures were announced and that FI would come up with new dividends for us to win, to excite the market.

    Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 23.51.04.png

    But the reason I've bumped this thread, is not to show you that I was right.... It's to show you that I aren't some overly negative guy who 'does down' the index for the sake of it or panics in a crisis. My response when football collapsed was measured, I didn't panic, I gave very specific time guides for when and how things would bounce back, even name checking Trent as the type of players who would rise. I was positively up beat about the Index, pointing out that FI had a major opportunity to shine.

    Sadly, FI made some incredibly shady decisions and they crashed the market. That's not me accusing them... that's an absolute fact that they have recently acknowledged and apologised for. My tune changed from up beat to frustrated the day FI announced the bid system and that's because I knew, without a shadow of a doubt, that it was going to crash the market costing many of us absolute fortunes with nothing that we could do about it.

    For all the criticism I get on here, I think most of you would or indeed have acknowledged my ability to make detailed predictions that come to fruition. Deep analysis is a skill I've honed over decades and I've achieved big things in my life because of that. The truth is, when times are good and I say they're good, people like what I have to say but, when times are about to be bad and I explain why... people accuse me of having an agenda... of making "checkered" posts.

    All that you get from me is my honest read of the market and my record stands for itself. When I'm passionate about something... I'm rarely proved wrong, especially about the big things.

    And yeah, I'm on here a lot. I was due to open a business when COVID put that on hold, so I've been twiddling my thumbs. I see a lot of people who frankly don't understand why things happened and I do my best to educate, so that the folk in our community are better prepared. I'm all for moving forward... since the crash, I've created threads showing tools that help people trade but you have know where you are and where you came from before you can know how to go forward.

    Now, as for those guys that are leaving... there's a few decent chaps like @MickTurbo, @ScouseSte and @Advinculas-Index who I'd be sorry to see leave, but it's not like they are giving up their FI credentials... I'm sure they'll be back in a few weeks and if not, well, best of luck fellas.



  • @Dan-The-Man

    I'm a busy boy these days Dan so my time on forums is much less.

    Probably good as I was on here way too much at one point! 😂



  • @Dan-The-Man Ok thanks for the input



  • @Dan-The-Man random comment but noticed you were one of the only ones that didn’t pick on Mr white either



  • @ScouseSte said in Potential Big Price Drops To Come or spreads to stay very high!:

    @Dan-The-Man

    I'm a busy boy these days Dan so my time on forums is much less.

    Probably good as I was on here way too much at one point! 😂

    Who down voted this? ??

    Christ this forum has taken a nosedive



  • Does anybody really give a monkeys about downvotes? Profit is King.


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