Have we bottomed out yet?............



  • Or is this the first dip?

    My port suffered a 1.1% drop on Monday but yesterday, whilst it dropped again, it seemed to stabilise from the early afternoon onwards.

    What is everyone else current gut feel at the moment after the last couple of days.?



  • I thought it had bottomed out a few days ago when I had a couple of days of nice rises. Last 2 days wiped those out though.

    It's difficult to judge I think. You're going to get real world situations where people are going to need some cash cos work ain't paying no more.

    Then others that have over extended and are are silently crapping themselves and waiting for some sort of rise to de risk a bit. Hopefully many of these have already sold up what they need.

    Against that there are others with a cash balance keeping their powder dry. Maybe a couple of stable days will convince them to jump in. Then other might remove from the sell queue and we get a bit of a positive snowball.

    Guess the short answer is I don't really know.



  • @Advinculas-Index no, I don't think we have yet.



  • I dont think we will know which players have bottomed out until the spreads shorten to be honest, at that point dome players will tumble and id imagine others will rocket



  • The markets been very stable due to the spreads once we get smaller spreads, more IS’s go through and also depending on real world news there will be more volatility. Patience and a strong gut still required.



  • In an economic sense I imagine there's still some way to go. From FIs perspective they can still try and counter this with other offers and incentives so they have the potential to reduce the impact.

    There are probably a lot of people on FI who don't need to IS to release funds yet but might if there becomes an enforced lock down or shutting of workplaces etc.



  • @Allams-Out

    I very much doubt it; there's likely to be no football until July/August at the earliest so the only players with any chance of earning any dividends will be MB ones whether through being newsworthy MB magnets (very small group) or sporadic transfer speculation etc. The vast majority of the index will have no MB attraction at all, so the only buyers will be those wishing to get ahead of the trend & stock up on bargains for the future but they could easily be outweighed by distressed sellers just looking for a rise to free up cash. Many were caught out holding IPD, PB or Euro players that they now want to release or unwind.

    I think many will hold a cash balance until after the next FI announcement, post Thursday, to see what promotion they will roll out, likely to be Media based so not much help to the other 95% of players. I don't expect massive falls, except maybe players leaving PB leagues for the last time, but gradual declines until pre season buyers come back in force. Once spreads are narrowed I think we will see the true nature of the current market but it's plausible they could remain wide until next season or the introduction of order books (which ever comes first).



  • I think there will be further drops by the time weve had 3 weeks to a mo th without footy but I think it will just be a steady decline now, the scared money must be just about gone now but frustration/boredom will still take its toll of were looking optimistically at June/July before a balls kicked. Money to be made in transfer spec tho



  • I don't think we are anywhere near the bottom. We'll be lucky if there's any football played in the next 6 months in my opinion. I'm sure we'll see some nice positive announcements about completing the season by the end of June after the PL meeting tomorrow but I also think it's highly unlikely to come true.
    The longer we go the tougher people's financial situations potentially become and the more boredom kicks in for many.



  • I think there will be further drops. The Economy is in a mess and there will be a % of people who will need some money.

    I'm probably a good example of this. I'm manager of a wine bar and we are already looking at salary cuts. If this goes on for as long as this is being talked about there is a real possibility of closure. I'm lucky that I have savings but if shit hits the fan work wise then I will take a lot of money off. I've got a 25k port.

    Plus in the back of my mind there might be opportunities outside of F.I. Not much fun having money stuck in a platform dwindling away when it can be used better elsewhere. I could see the Index falling for the next month or two and money now would be useful.

    I think if they reduced spreads to 10% i'd probably take the hit. Which is probably why they shouldn't!



  • @Advinculas-Index Nowhere near. Once the spreads are narrowed I see a bigger downturn than the one at the start. I think starting next season on time is extremely unlikely.



  • Some people will need to take money out and are waiting for the spreads to be more reasonable.
    But whatever comes out tomorrow... We will have a little more certainty for people to gamble on. Months of a great media promotion... For the savvy long termers...plenty of bargains.

    I don't think it's doom and gloom for the index by any stretch of the imagination... Player to player there is capacity for boom and bust. I recommend buying in small batches so if you do buy a player who crashes you have room to keep topping up... Or not too many shares losing value etc



  • Mainly to echo what others have said no, there will be plenty whom need money elsewhere and haven't pulled the trigger just yet due to the spreads. The drops people are seeing in ports is artificial, it's a result of people listing to market, the money is still in there.

    What I will say is I expect there to be quite a sharp dip at some point as those that need to sell have a race to the bottom to exit holds. I expect that sharp dip however to be short lived by those that have cash balances waiting to take advantage of the market bottoming out.

    The platform and dividends structure is sound in my opinion, most will be exiting out of necessity rather than choice.

    Lastly just want to spare a thought for people finding themselves in a tuff spot right now, do what you need to navigate the current world events and stay afloat, hopefully in the near future we can all be enjoying football again.



  • Previous downturns in FI have clearly shown that some people have overstretched themselves, but this is unprecedented compared to that as we're looking at significant real world problems, not simply player prices outgrowing dividends.

    I don't want to be a doom monger, but realistically we must be on course for a recession. People have got families to care for and bills to pay, and money in here may soon look like a luxury they can't afford. People are always happy to post rocket emojis and shout 'get on the train' when things are going well, but the silence when things are not often speaks volumes too.

    I don't think we're near the bottom yet and I would encourage all users to evaluate their current position. FI should be fun. It will not be fun if you're sweating over the money you have in here.

    That said, I do think FI have an ace up their sleeve. People will still want a 'flutter' regardless of the wider economic situation and there are loads of bookmakers that are going to feel the pinch for as long as sport is cancelled. The unique aspect of FI is that they don't need football to be played, just spoken and written about and if they play things correctly they will be able to offset at least some of the inevitable loss with strong marketing around the media aspect of FI, which will hopefully take some custom off bookies.



  • I'm a Director in a Recruitment Agency and we had to let 9 people go yesterday. We're only a small company with 20/25 employees so it's been a tough few days. Over the course of the next 2 or 3 weeks I would imagine many others will face the same issues.

    Whilst I am in a fortunate position where I can ride it out and wait for football to return, many others will need cash now if they are being made redundant or are being asked to reduce salaries/working days. Although it is likely to see further drops to my port, I do feel like the size of the spreads should be decreased. Imagine being made redundant and desperately needing to cash in your portfolio to survive, and having to IS out of desperation? You'd be lucky to get what, half of your port value back after ISing and commission?

    So, in answer to your question, I'd be surprised if this was the bottom.



  • Anyone else quite happy for the Index to remain in its current state for the foreseeable future?

    While uncertainty levels are at their peak, portfolio stability is the most important thing right now and we are very lucky to have that.

    Yes the Index may be frustrating, boring, flat and some may feel 'trapped' but reacting too soon and attempting to artificially stimulate it could be disastrous.



  • @Chris-J said in Have we bottomed out yet?............:

    Anyone else quite happy for the Index to remain in its current state for the foreseeable future?

    While uncertainty levels are at their peak, portfolio stability is the most important thing right now and we are very lucky to have that.

    Yes the Index may be frustrating, boring, flat and some may feel 'trapped' but reacting too soon and attempting to artificially stimulate it could be disastrous.

    Yep not bothered at all about profit just want the index to be okay and ready for when footy starts again.



  • @Tom77 said in Have we bottomed out yet?............:

    @Chris-J said in Have we bottomed out yet?............:

    Anyone else quite happy for the Index to remain in its current state for the foreseeable future?

    While uncertainty levels are at their peak, portfolio stability is the most important thing right now and we are very lucky to have that.

    Yes the Index may be frustrating, boring, flat and some may feel 'trapped' but reacting too soon and attempting to artificially stimulate it could be disastrous.

    Yep not bothered at all about profit just want the index to be okay and ready for when footy starts again.

    I'd echo that. There's been talk of shortening spreads. It would be absolute madness to do that right now until we can see at least a clear timeline to the resumption of football. Some might see potential in investing in something that might bring riches maybe 12 months down the line but id wager the vast majority would look to put their money elsewhere.



  • I feel my money is "safer" in here than 90% of stocks at the minute and for the next few months, don't get me wrong, I'm assessing the markets and going to have a dabble in a few stocks in the next few weeks, half of what would normally be coming straight into here,the other half will come into here as usual. I just see alot opportunities coming up. May be wrong and lose some but it's keeping my little bit of gambling/trading alive, where as in FI it's a little stagnant until we get an announcement. Or maybe it's diversifying a bit.. one thing is for certain, if it wasn't for this global pain in the arse the full quota of dosh would be straight in here and topping up ready for next season.
    Hold firm and keep whatever you can in here!



  • I think FI have got something up their sleeves which could ignite the market tomorrow. Could be a good day to top up Bruno and Pogba, assuming MB gets a further boost.


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