The Death of Big Money Moves?



  • Does anyone else think that the chances of big money’s moves such as Sancho to united or Neymar to Barca are well and truly dead this year at least due to the financial crisis that is likely to hit football even when the virus outbreak is under control?



  • I reckon so. Its inevitable. Every other business is facing huge cuts - Football is no different. I think the big boys can still pull it off because of Arab sugar daddies and huge commercial activity, but speculative mid table teams will certainly be tightening up.

    Great news if you are a promising youngster at those clubs. Bad news if you are a name wanting an exit from a club - Limited options other than stay or take a pay cut somewhere else.

    Plus TV companies are looking to claw back their spend on this season. Understandably so. But most clubs have already spent that cash. Oh oh....



  • @Leighton i’m not convinced even the sugar daddy clubs won’t suffer from this. their owners will likely be hurting from all areas of the economy, be it stocks and shares, commodities, property etc. Some will surely be hurting enough to not be investing in their football club and focusing on their core wealth. guarantee that will be Stan Kroenkes stance at arsenal! :-)
    Surely even the spanish government won’t be bailing madrid out this time around.



  • Hoping that we see a return of the lesser spotted swap deal.

    I think what we will see is slightly less money spent, but still significant amounts--the money from a champions league or europa league space is even more important now.

    Wouldn't be surprised to see the teams in lower end of the table drop off in quality when games restart. Could be a good time to receive those parachute payments, sell a few players on big wages and rebuild with cheaper squads.

    Also can't rule out players forcing a move



  • A possible short term solution will be increased number of loan deals, similar to how Alexis, Coutinho, Ceballos, Ighalo have all seen this season. Rather akin to "try before you buy" deals allowing clubs to reduce their wage bill & free squad places without permanent deals & are far less complicated than swap deals.

    Inevitably some fail to impress & might end up being sent back in Jan or next Summer but better than skulking around the dressing room like a bad smell, unsettling the rest of the squad. Whether players like Pogba could be shifted in this way I doubt somewhat but sometimes needs must & I still can't see him staying at MUFC into next season, whenever that happens. £100m+ permanent deals may well be seen as unacceptably obscene, given the state of the rest of the economy, especially if the clubs involved had furloughed employees or otherwise taken outside support during the crisis.

    Sancho & Kane will probably have to stay put for a further 12 months at least IMHO, which might actually be positive in terms of their MB output.



  • Here's a graph showing the spend throughout the period of the last financial crisis (2008), which shows it did not really affect it that year
    alt text

    However, back then the cause of the downturn did not stop football matches being played, whereas this one does (then affecting gate receipts and potentially TV rights).

    Also the dip does happen two years later, in 2010.

    So I predict it could well be 2-3 years of much more modest spending by many clubs, before coming back to normal around 2023.



  • This is all true, but the money is there remember. The top flight are drowning in cash.

    They might not spend £60m now, but to the man on the street how is that really any different to spending £30m instead? It's not.

    I think Spurs are first in line for a massive fan/public backlash here as well.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52120578


  • Banned

    @Leighton
    I think the opposite, I think there will be premier league clubs bang in trouble financially. There is big money but it relies on money coming into the game.

    Anyone with spare cash reserves could make a killing and really strengthen.

    But a lot of the value high rollers could spend, could be lost on the stocks crashing etc, and lots will not have cash reserves, its paper money being moved around.

    A lot of guesswork I think



  • @Leighton

    The actions of Spurs, Newcastle and Norwich is shameful!🤔

    Give it 6 months and Newcastle will be blowing £20 million on another foreign nobody.

    As a result of the pandemic, It is likely that big money transfers may not happen this summer as previously expected.

    Which makes the free transfer market look far more appealing to the big clubs ... Cavani and Ryan Fraser for example. 🤔



  • Embarrassing for Spurs maybe Levy could return his 3 million bonus for doing the stadium, man is a waste of space and tight as .....


  • Banned

    There is also the rules to consider, I am thinking specifically fair play rules.

    Clubs arent getting gate money, and presumably (but I dont know for sure) less tv money. Probably affects a lot of sponsorship too.

    Bringing in a lot less money = not being able to spend a lot of money, even if you have rich owners.



  • I don't honestly know why there aren't more swap deals of part exchange deals in football. The way football club's increase the number of their playing staff (sometimes around 30-40) is ridiculous in my book.



  • I think transfers still happen but at reduced value. So Sancho moves for 100 mil and not 150mil for example.

    Also clubs will be struggling financially so maybe those holding out for high fees will now accept lower fees.

    Clubs may have less to spend but clubs will be willing to sell for less. Even the big clubs may offload to deflate wage bills etc.



  • "English clubs continue to pay out wages that in several cases – according to the most recent accounts – equate to 75% of revenue, most of which has suddenly come to a halt."

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/apr/03/premier-league-clubs-may-be-forced-to-sell-players-says-analyst


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