When the lockdown is over, what will happen to the Index?



  • Italy is thinking about lifting the lockdown restrictions. Shops & businesses can be reopened and people can start going out for work from May 04. If this is true, there is no reason that Serie A matches can resume in May. This is definitely good news for football and FI.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11358667/italy-advances-plans-to-lift-coronavirus-lockdown-5-days/



  • I imagine that any football played in May to July in the PB leagues will be behind closed doors.

    June may be a more realistic restart date, if that’s the case.



  • As far as I can tell, this just means Italy will still have restrictions but on a level with the current UK ones (just to enable more functions for businesses). And we don't have football.



  • Seems very soon in my opinion but we will see.



  • Normal life will not return for 12 months+ IMO but as a result of asking the population to make such huge sacrifices then some sort of normality will need to be slowly introduced ASAP. This is why I believe football & sport in general will be amongst the first line of resumptions; behind closed doors but televised to give hope & entertainment to an otherwise bored, restless, frustrated & often grieving populus.

    Young, fit & healthy sportsman are amongst the least at risk from serious consequences when exposed to CV, so perhaps initially on a voluntary basis, the decisions to resume something resembling normality will likely be sporting fixtures & I can see May/June being penciled in as timings.

    As for the index; PB players will maintain their current rises, MB only players will be listed so dip in price & on resumption the IPD players will finally get a boost but we may face a renewed lockdown should a further CV spike (which is inevitable IMO) look likely to become unmanageable. So a period of CV cat & mouse will be likely until a vaccine becomes widely available, probably in Spring next year.



  • @NewUser159387 Agree with this 100%

    Gonna be so good when it does come back tho. Missed the weekend footy binge



  • Little dip when spreads narrowed then fly



  • Seen the idea of a health passport around.
    If we get a test that shows someone has had the virus then you can go to a stadium.



  • @kristiang85 The Italy daily dead toll peak on Mar 27, then has been gradually decreased. It is sensible to release the lockdown in Italy at the end of this month or early May. The situation in England is about 3 weeks behind Italy (the UK peak may be the end of this week). So I do believe Italy football can resume sometime in May (behind closed doors) and in June for PL football.

    0_1586444059290_upload-33642323-bed3-4f85-b5c8-a887638445ce



  • As much as I’d like to believe this, sadly you have to realise that these are just ‘chin up’ stylised media stories..the truth is medical advisors and professionals are expecting a second wave of the Chinese flu. Even if it doesn’t have a re-emergence, there will be still delays to ‘normal’ life resuming. End of June is the earliest I can see any ‘baby steps’ happening. End of August/ early September more likely. 😔



  • @Victory said in When the lockdown is over, what will happen to the Index?:

    @kristiang85 The Italy daily dead toll peak on Mar 27, then has been gradually decreased. It is sensible to release the lockdown in Italy at the end of this month or early May. The situation in England is about 3 weeks behind Italy (the UK peak may be the end of this week). So I do believe Italy football can resume sometime in May (behind closed doors) and in June for PL football.

    Yes it is reducing, but the death and infection rates are still at very high levels - just because they are at less than before doesn't change that fact. And this is despite current diagnoses being in the 28 day period where the strict lockdowns would have had effects. The WHO advise them not to relax too soon, and many pandemics in the past have shown that a second wave happens.

    I think you're right on the football timelines, but I think it will be June for all the top 5 leagues, save maybe Germany.

    At the end of the day, no matter who wants it to go ahead, it will need both medical professionals to be present in the ground and players' insurers signing off on it. I think in the next 6-7 weeks is just too early for that, looking at the outbreaks right now.



  • How will the fixtures effect match day dividends when football returns? Obviously in the overall scheme of things this is unimportant but...
    Some leagues are discussing really packing the schedule and having matches every 3 days. To keep things fair with rest periods this could mean all the matches for each round on the same day. This might really limit the number of players receiving dividends, especially if a couple of leagues clash days.



  • @NewUser565183 prior to the lockdown, they introduced the number of matches per day for matchday divs. I think it 's bronze day for 4 or less, silver day for 5 to 10, and gold day for more than 10. Same rule can be applied, and if the matches are more frequent, we will just have more match days ( & divs) 👌



  • This is an update on possible football return:

    Bundesliga - early/mid May
    La Liga/Serie A: late May/early June
    League 1: mid June
    PL: ???

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52283194


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