Will COVID Scupper The Mega Summer Deals This Summer

  • I was half way through replying to @Dronny-Gaz in the Gotze thread with his thoughts based on a comment he made there but thought I may as well throw it to the floor as a whole.

    Lots of people suggesting that the crisis will prevent the mega summer deals we all expected this summer. I'm not sure where I stand on this as I just see the European behemoth clubs as bottomless pits who wont even feel the pinch at a time like this. Cant say I'm certain on this view though.

    Off the top of my head, these are the massive transfers for gigantic fees and eye watering contracts that were in all probability, going to happen this summer

    Sancho to Utd/Liverpool
    Neymar to Barca
    Pog to Real/PSG
    Griezmann to Utd/PSG
    Kane to Utd/Real/Juve
    Coutinho to any number of clubs
    Same again Kai Havertz
    Sane to Bayern
    Salah to Real
    Maybe EBH somewhere
    Others no doubt

    Any of the above would be huge news and involve outrageous sums of money.

    I'd be really interested to see what thoughts/insights people may have about whether 'the event' has put the block on some or all of these deals and if in actual fact the highlights of the summer transfer window may in fact be any good quality free agents like Gotze and others.

    Equally, if these deals dont happen what does if mean for Pog/Ney? Surely positive for holders?

    And what does if mean for Sancho, Griezy, Kane etc? In fact I'd say its negative to varying degrees for holders of all barring Pog and Ney, but will it happen?

    This isnt some abstract attempt at a pump btw, I do hold Neymar, am looking to re-buy pog, and also hold Kane, Griezy, Havertz. Just looking to start a discussion

  • Someone asked this last week...will swap deals be the way forward,

    I think the big names will still go through......Neymar, Pogba, Coutinho........still big deals to be done. And payments are usually over the whole term of the deal, so one tight season cash-wise won't affect the big boys.

    Some, like my Hammers, will use it as another excuse to not sign a marquee player.

    I likened it to the housing market. If Sancho's price drops 5mill Dortmund won't actually lose out as the players they buy to replace him will have dropped too.

    I do think we will see the lowest net spend for some years, BUT.........share prices are driven on rumours and the papers will want something to put on the back pages, so FI wise its business as usual.

  • @Munchie63 I agree with your housing market comparison to some extent, I think in principal it seems right but not at all sure things would play out that way.

    On the point about business as usual in FI terms, it wholly depends on the answer to the original question. If none of the deals I mention were to happen I could see Pog and Neymar back at the summit of the index, and Sancho taking a short but severe dip before bouncing back towards next january/next summer

  • I think it is going to have a massive effect personally
    Most of the big owners of clubs are individual / families and the virus will have a huge impact on the companies they own
    For example the Foxes owners business is related to tourism in Thailand which is currently not only not bringing in any money they are forking it out . These guys didn't get to be billionaires by luck they are astute business people and won't be spunking £30M away on some young left back from Nigeria / Austria / Peru or wherever until they know the full impact on their own businesses never mind the football club's. Not saying low value / swaps won't take place I just think the mega big bucks transfers will be the first to be put on hold.
    As ever just my humble opinion
    To back my theory I have listed all of my potential transfer players and intend concentrating on under valued PB players. Wether I can shift the potential transfer players is another matter !!

  • @bernardb yeh this is what I'm getting at. I still hold some transfer spec players, in fact I have big money in Kane, Griezy, and Bellingham as well as Neymar. Not particularly worried about any of them though. As I say, I'd expect Neymar to benefit in terms of yield and cap app but I would be really hoping that Griezy could still get his move. Also, every chance of some kind of rent to buy deal on Bellingham.

    All the dividends will come from transfer spec regardless, just interested in ppls thoughts. I suppose Wober to Lyon for £5m wont win any media, but in the current climate, it may be more of a go'er than Sancho to Utd for £200m

  • I think the biggest transfers will probably go ahead. It might take awhile and the market may get constipated, needing one mega deal to go through to clear the logjam. Last summer Dortmund and Real Madrid did their business very early, everyone else played a waiting game.

    Things might get more interesting lower down the leagues. Some clubs are going to be forced to sell and it will be a buyer's market. I can also see the transfer window being extended until the end of January (could this scupper a potential FI summer transfer dividend?). This would give these lower ranked clubs more time to sell and find a buyer, without being held hostage at the end of a summer transfer window deadline. Also more loan deals and speculation on swap deals, which rarely happen.

  • I understand the notion and agree with a lot of points made but I come from it from a slightly different point of view. We are now in an economy where cash is king and we have the haves and the have nots. The interesting point here is that some clubs under the most severe pressure will have to sell key assets to raise funds . Take Leicester I think chillwell among others is gone now as they are in the latter camp .. in some ways I can see additional transfer activities where some clubs can pick up key players at potentially sub prime prices whilst others will be forced to sell to raise revenues.

  • Banned

    Am I right in thinking that the authorities haven't decided on the fair play rules adjustments yet?

    If they remove them, then the stinking rich will splash out everything they can to get ahead, this will in turn give the smaller clubs more money to spend more and this could keep the prices artificially high.

    If they leave them in place, clubs are having a lot less income so will have to spend way less. Big players may be moved on cheaper to get wages off the books and players wages will drop, or players will refuse to move and it will all get very messy.

    I think they will probably change the fair play rules to ensure money keeps flooding in, because keeping them in place could well bankrupt a lot of clubs.

  • Most clubs even in the top leagues now live hand to mouth, often spending 80%+ of any revenue on player wages & this current CV uncertainty has exposed the folly of that business model. TV money was seen as the golden goose but clubs failed to factor in that if football stopped for whatever reason there would be nothing to televise & those revenues would dry up almost overnight, so huge ongoing wage bills built up on the back of it now look unsustainable. I think the entire football business model will likely have to be rethought for many if not most clubs, which will have a serious knock on effect to transfer budgets both short & longer term.

    The public disgust for EPL clubs like Spurs & Liverpool furloughing the non playing staff onto the taxpayer (who collectively account for <5% of their wage bill) whilst still paying 100% of top salaries to players has illustrated how detached the owners of such clubs have become from both reality & the society on which they depend (both for matchday revenues but also TV subscriptions). A few of the really big boys may still be able to afford Mega deals but even they often rely on selling fringe players to clubs lower down the food chain, where prices may no longer be so sustainable.

    So I can see loan deals & free agents being used as short term fixes but longer term prices will probably need to fall across the board. An extended transfer window may well be necessary to allow enough deals to complete as selling clubs (who are at great risk of going bust unless they generate some transfer revenue) will need to find buyers & with the current uncertainty regarding dates for both this season & next I doubt any deals will happen until that is decided. Not even sure that the possible negative PR from such mega deals might even scupper some of them, take Liverpool will they risk lavishing £100m+ on anyone after this latest PR debacle?

  • Suspect it will have a huge impact.

    Some teams will be desperate to sell as they need money so there will be huge discounts on their players. It makes sense for clubs to go for bargains this year to strip the poor and go for the blockbusters next year.

    Transfer budgets are essentially disposable income. If a club sees say 75m of its revenue lost where does it recoup it, transfer budget. Teams will have smaller budgets and hit the sides that need to sell and will accept much reduced price.

    Teams that don't need to sell aren't going to offer those discounts, it makes sense for them to wait till next year.

  • As others have said I think all values go down according to budgets going down.

    So yes less money being exchanged but deals will still happen. Mainly due to player power these days. No one can get the best from a player that wants to move, we've seen it time and again.

  • @NewUser159387 liverpool announced a few days ago that theh have reversed their decision to furlough non playing staff

  • A big name reporter on European football has said that a lot of clubs including big name clubs are going to be financial hit hard during these times and clubs will have to sell assets to get back on track, Covid could if anything increase the big transfers this window/summer

  • Clubs will still want to freshen up their squads and there'll be others moving on at the end of their contracts, so bound to still be lots of movement, but I suspect we might see more at the cheaper end. Could even see a few more this year being snapped up by PL clubs from the Championship, as those teams may be less able to resist as they'll need the cash. Also, whilst I'm sure they'll be one or big transfers, I don't see all those in the OP happening, as every year the speculation normally far outweighs the reality anyway, let alone when we consider what is happening to the global economy.

  • @Ddr said in Will COVID Scupper The Mega Summer Deals This Summer:

    liverpool announced a few days ago that theh have reversed their decision to furlough non playing staff

    Exactly, due entirely to the negative public backlash, couldn't have looked less caring & out of touch if they tried, just hope they fired their PR firm!

  • @NewUser159387 said in Will COVID Scupper The Mega Summer Deals This Summer:

    @Ddr said in Will COVID Scupper The Mega Summer Deals This Summer:

    liverpool announced a few days ago that theh have reversed their decision to furlough non playing staff

    Exactly, due entirely to the negative public backlash, couldn't have looked less caring & out of touch if they tried, just hope they fired their PR firm!

    So let me get this right, you're slagging them off for making the wrong decision, and then youre slagging them off for reversing their decision and being in the right moral position?

    You remind me of a few girls who I've dated in the past who were absolutely impossible to please

  • I think transfers will still go ahead, but at a reduced price from those quoted now.

    Additionally transfer fees are normally paid over several years, a £50m transfer fee would be paid in stages allowing clubs a steady stream of income. Depending on how you structure it you could see some large transfers still going through.

  • I'm really not sure. The amount of transfer money and wages in football is obscene currently. How will it look in the depths of a deep recession?
    It will be the old big clubs getting richer and small clubs getting poorer if not going bust.
    From an FI point of view, it shouldn't really matter. Media are going to talk about transfers and there'll be transfer speculation whether it's for £100 million or £1 million.
    Nobody truly knows as this is all unprecedented.
    The Bundesliga is being proactive in getting the season finished partly due to the amount of TV money that would be lost if it was scrapped.
    I imagine other countries will follow suit.
    All games behind closed doors until a vaccine is found I guess.

  • Dunno but it's definitely scuppering my enjoyment.
    Seeing this every time I go to the FI site doesn't help either:
    0_1586552295447_Screenshot (7).png
    It should have a box to tick to acknowledge it rather than popping up every time.
    A minor thing in the grand scheme of things, I'm fully aware, but it annoys me just the same.

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