Advice please

  • Morning all, been on FI approx 9 months, regularly look at the forum, so thought it about time I got involved. Firstly, thank you to lots of the guys on here for your constructive and useful posts, they’ve pointed me in the right direction on more than one occasion. My investment (until yesterday) was £2,750, and was sitting with a modest (compared to lots of you guys on here), 20% all time profit - IRR not calculated but using all time profit as a simple guide of success. With the net buy bonus it seemed a no brainer to match my initial deposits so dropped a further £2,750 yesterday - what other ‘investment’ will return me £226 by this time next week?! Still got £400 of this to spend. I’m naturally risk averse, so try to get a consistent dividend stream (clearly easier right now), with some injury returners etc, and tend to hold up to 100 shares - up to 300 if player cost less than a £1. Looking for advice on where to put this remaining £400?

  • @NewUser381268

    1. Give yourself a name - people tend to respond more readily - Click on your user profile/icon(top right) - Edit profile

    2.Personally if i had to invest now, i would look for players that haven't risen or only slightly over the last few weeks as these are less likely to suffer a drop after the 23rd. e.g Sterling/Maddison/Son im sure there are plenty of others that fall into this category.

  • Im still finding dips to buy that havent shown recovery rises as quicj as other players yet.

    Use index gains free data bit- filter by age (sub 26), filter pb avergae 90+, filter has scored 220+...this should give a decent starting point. Then look into any players you fancy, check their graph on FI- did they dip due to lack of fixtures? These are the ones that with fixtures, should grow.

  • Personally I would get yourself 50 Harry Kane's and top up your cheapies. For the time being he's the most reliable div returner, has good long term propsects, and is significantly cheaper than Sancho, Bruno, Neymar etc.

  • @Advinculas-Index
    Username sorted, good advice - cheers!
    Maddison is certainly one I had my eye on, considerably down from peak, young, English, and potential transfer spec, thank you

  • @Westy
    I’ll defo check that out - will take a look now. On a diff note, what are your thoughts on Adama (Wolves)? As a Wolves fan, Nuno has worked wonders on him, and I expect him to have more concrete transfer spec if his form continues when we get some sort of ‘normality’ back, whatever that now means! I kept thinking his price looked high at £3, but he kept going up with performances. He only missed last few games as he had a recurring issue with dislocated shoulder. I haven’t heard anything but they may have dealt with it during this break, but hopefully won’t be long term issue. Now Sancho etc appear to have stretched the market price wise, albeit enhanced slightly by current world events and media focus, do you see him with much growth potential from an FI perspective?

  • @wolves86 I looked at Adama a while ago and because I missed his rise I decided against. I have now turned my attention to Jimemez instead. Due a good rise and potential transfer spec. He's class.

  • @Hint
    Thanks for the reply mate, first thing I did when I put the extra cash in was £100 Kane’s - seems like a solid bet right now, enhanced further by media focus. Could do worse than get another 50 though I guess!

  • @Dan-w
    Jimenez is quality mate - agreed. It’s a physchological one but that one hurts me as bad him at less than £1 when I first joined so feels hard to go back at where he is now. It’s a train of thought I need to shift though, as clearly need to assess value in terms of today. Neto another great shout. Although the potential rotation between the three of Jota, Neto and Adama could be a stumbling block. Neto only 19 though (from memory), so great potential - even after recent large rise

  • You may have seen me mention that I bought 50-60 trackers the day after all the footy was cancelled. Virtually all went into the red but now almost 4 weeks on (I think) the vast majority are green. Varying degrees of green, but green. One that has dipped further still, even from that low point, is Todd Cantwell.

    I took this screen shot I took yesterday before loading up.


    Again, the buy price for that single share was from the day after things came tumbling down so his price today seems like it's very low, and hopefully the bottom.

    He made particular appeal because on top of him being in a dip and seemingly being missed by the bounce, he is a player who at some point is gonna get amongst the media as he will very likely get a transfer away from Norwich, with Liverpool, Spurs, City, Utd all apparently intetested

  • @MickTurbo is there a reason you buy trackers instead of using the watch list? I used to buy trackers on the old website where the watchlist was useless, but I've started using the watchlist now and it seems to work well.

  • @wolves86 never comes up when I data mine players so may not suit the pb system? Price has a big club move built in too maybe? Type that will have spikes and hype though. Will spike on a good pb score, will spike on big transfer news...may dip if its abroad.

    Jota turned up in my last look, almost went for him but chose others... He's still on my list though.

  • @9stevo I only came over to the beta when my hand was forced. I realize now that I didnt need to. If I'd known how the beta watch list worked I wouldn't have bought trackers. I guess I've got maybe £150 worth of trackers

  • @MickTurbo
    Thanks for the reply mate. Listened to the podcast you did a few weeks ago and found it really useful, have always found you’ve given solid advice on here too. Cantwell seems like a good shout, the only thing that made me slightly wary was the the rise he had pre all this, which maybe why he hasn’t had a rise since the COVID dip. That said, I think this would be more than offset by transfer spec. I saw previously you were on Endo - you still thinking he’s a good hold?

  • @MickTurbo cheers for the response mate, was just wondering if I'd missed something, I was the opposite, I transferred across to the new site as soon as it was live as I knew I'd have to at some point and was hoping for better functionality so I just went for it straight away.

  • @Westy
    Considering the amount of crosses, drobbles and assists Adama makes his PB isn’t wonderful - possibly due to a shortfall in the number of actual passes he makes and he has a nack of giving the ball away (although this is improving). I held Jota since £1.50 then sold at £2.20 after his amazing run. The thing that concerns me with him is his PB appears to be relatively poor in terms of consistency, but he is very capable of banging in braces and hatricks, so likely to get a couple of wins - as he has. I think if football had continued and the spreads hadn’t widened, he would’ve dropped a bit more had he had a goalless run. He is however young, in the Portugal squad and tentative transfer spec with Utd. I do think an opportunity will present at nearer £2.25 than where he is now though. Disclaimer - my comments re the PB of these guys is from being a Wolves fan and therefore watching their games and scores relatively closely, not from review of specific data!

  • @wolves86 youbmay have seen me mention Endo yesterday (day before maybe) when asked about him in the Tier 2 thread I started. Think it was fried eggs who asked.

    I'll tell u what I told him. I'm at the front of the queue on Endo so make no mistakes, money you spend on him will be going directly into my cash balance which makes my advising you to buy him seem a bit under handed at face value. Theres a 'but' coming now.

    But, as I said to eggs, the reason I'm selling him is purely based on strategy. I do think hes very good value, but we do not know how the leagues are gonna be concluded. It seems that Germany has been more organized than the rest of Europe 😱😱😱 and it seems likely that their leagues will be completed. If that the case, you're looking at a midfield passer/interceptor (good matrix traits) with a massive chance of PB footy next season, for a mere 25p.

    The reason I'm selling is not because I dont rate him, but because I'm pretty much moving away from promotion candidates as a whole, having been something of a pioneer for them, because I, like everyone else, have been completely blindsided by the effects of COVID19. It's something I'll resume maybe next january when the 2nd tier tables are taking shape, and i will then resurrect that thread but for now my priorities are elsewhere.

    In answer to your question, yes i do think Endo is a good value player, but if you buy, you will be buying straight from me

  • @MickTurbo
    Fully appreciate the honesty of your reply mate. I already hold 300, purchased on the back of a thread from a while ago. I hadn’t seen the one you referred to tbh. I was more looking at whether worth holding than topping up. Think I’ll probs hold onto my 300, hopefully the £75 will make a decent return in time. Looks like your listing is the reason he’s gone to 24p then lol!

    Also, I’ve just received the due diligence request from FI, makes sense after my investment yesterday. Do you know if I can send pics of the docs they request?

  • @MickTurbo

    One thing to consider for next season when selecting tier 2, promotion candidates is that trends adapt and change.

    I first noticed this a few years back when I used to buy injured players post dip and wait for the inevitable bounce above their pre injury price. I made alot of cash doing this and saw it as a golden ticket.

    But as the trend became more established, the dips lessened and users realised that instant selling on a minor injury was a schoolboy error borne of frustration and fear. The market evolved and the trend became more recognised and therefore, less effective.

    I wouldn't be surprised if you find that the same happens with your current golden ticket mate. 🤷🏼‍♂️👍

  • @Westy maybe do a thread on dips... Solid players that are 10% down on their Jan prices, who don't need a transfer or promotion etc to get back to their value.

    Its similar to injury trading football lead to a short term drop in hundreds of good pb players... For doing nothing at all other than returning to football there is 10%+ to be made.

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