Where to start with Youth Prospects?



  • Afternoon traders,

    As I'm still fairly new (3 months in) to Football Index the idea of investing into youth prospects is very appealing.

    I'm happy to spend the time to research new and upcoming players as I find it very interesting and it can be very rewarding.

    What would you personally look at when defining great youth prospects? For instance if performance at Youth level international tournaments important? Is it all just about the HYPE? Is it extremely important they are under a certain age or price?

    Would love to hear everybody's thoughts and thank you for contributing.


  • Banned

    @FI-Stoxxy
    Personally (and I know I am not answering your question but I hope it helps give insight), I stay away from true youth players.
    There are big money to be made from them but they are also very risky, so many younger players fall by the wayside.

    I do go for younger players but insist on players that are already performing (such as Rashford).

    This gives me less risk and also a steadier port, with less fluctuation. I know I could earn more going for more risk, but it isn't something I am wanting to do.

    My aim is to beat 5% so I am beating the bank rate and over last 14 months I am making 89% a year, so very happy with that.

    Hope that helps when you start evaluating the risk v reward on youth.



  • @FI-Stoxxy all of the above but most importantly for me is trying to watch them play in a full match rather than skills videos as they only show the best bits. Preferably a senior match and i really just try to focus on the one player and get a feel for how they play off the ball and when not in possession



  • @MrWh1te thanks for your insight. I know there is an element of risk and your definition and explanation has helped so thank you. I'm only looking to deploy around 10% of my portfolio into young players. I'm looking to see if there's a strategy to find let's say the next Cherki, you know before everybody has jumped on the hype.


  • Banned

    @FI-Stoxxy Good luck, I will wait for your results with interest :)



  • @Black-wolf thanks mate that makes a lot of sense. Youtube videos can be exaggerated so you're 100% right. Can I ask where would you start? What resources do you use to find youth players?



  • @FI-Stoxxy said in Where to start with Youth Prospects?:

    Is it all just about the HYPE?

    Yes, ideally you need a player too young to have any prospect of playing first team games, except in pre season, or constantly injured so again shielded from playing any proper games. This allows a "hype myth" to build up about how unbelievably fantastic he's going to be, ideally if this can be backed up with some decent youth stats even better. Their only real gametime needs to be short cameo performances, ideally when the opposition are already beaten or tired. WHY all this shielding? Simply as soon as their true ability is on display, even if it's really good, the myth is exposed & rather like the Emperors new clothes everyone can see their true value, which is inevitably lower than the hyped value & so their bubble is burst.

    Examples include a couple of Monaco players that have been injured for the best part of 2 years, yet still pumped as wonder kids, 16 year old championship kids touted as the next Cantonaesque saviour, most young South Americans & the list goes on. The truth is possibly one in every ten will go on to have a decent PB league career & one in every hundred will become a star & possible one in a thousand might replicate Messi or CR7 but most will fail but by the time the hype train derails those who pumped them hardest will have long since departed, having pocketed fortunes & started pumping some other youth prospects.



  • @FI-Stoxxy i set team and player notifications through sofa score and if i see that they are in the starting line up or subbed on ill switch over to the game or find a stream.

    If you want to flip a player on hype alone then keeping on top of the forum helps, players with huge threads or multiple threads can be good indicators of building hype. I prefer to actually see a player in action though as i need that confidence behind my holds



  • Takes patience.

    With a known player... There are obvious times of the season or events that occur which will have a predictable impact on the share price.

    With youngsters it's far harder to time when they will make an impact.

    Also, as others have said, they are risky... And their share prices volatility reflects that. So don't over commit too soon... Leave yourself space to top up dips (if you still believe in their talent).



  • In my very limited experience in the bracket, game time is some times the worst thing that can happen for a youth player as once they start playing they need to produce. Until that time they can rise just based on hype as they are an unknown quantity, the more they play the more of a known quantity they are (good or bad). I think the club they've come through from is a big factor too, any United youth player is probably worth double their actual value purely cause they could make it at United, whereas you could have a youth player from a 'smaller club' who has done far more at youth level and in the first team but their price will be lower just because of they don't have the hype of one of the bigger clubs.



  • Here's one off the radar. Matt O'Riley at Fulham. He's hardly played any games. His price has been on the decline for a while. Now at 64p. 19 years old. Look at the reasons as to why he's not playing though. I don't think it's as cut and dried as he's not upto it. He made a good account of himself at Premier League Southampton in League Cup. The market not interested him at the minute but once he sorts his future out. Then the hype will start...



  • Definitely all about hype. Buy the dips and sit back and wait until they either get into the first team squad or even better score a first team goal.

    Usually pre-season or league cup matches are a good chance for spikes on youth players as this is when they are used most.



  • Thank you to everybody who has replied. Essentially what you're saying is HYPE plays a big role in future prospects!



  • @NewUser159387 said in Where to start with Youth Prospects?:

    @FI-Stoxxy said in Where to start with Youth Prospects?:

    Is it all just about the HYPE?

    Yes, ideally you need a player too young to have any prospect of playing first team games, except in pre season, or constantly injured so again shielded from playing any proper games. This allows a "hype myth" to build up about how unbelievably fantastic he's going to be, ideally if this can be backed up with some decent youth stats even better. Their only real gametime needs to be short cameo performances, ideally when the opposition are already beaten or tired. WHY all this shielding? Simply as soon as their true ability is on display, even if it's really good, the myth is exposed & rather like the Emperors new clothes everyone can see their true value, which is inevitably lower than the hyped value & so their bubble is burst.

    Examples include a couple of Monaco players that have been injured for the best part of 2 years, yet still pumped as wonder kids, 16 year old championship kids touted as the next Cantonaesque saviour, most young South Americans & the list goes on. The truth is possibly one in every ten will go on to have a decent PB league career & one in every hundred will become a star & possible one in a thousand might replicate Messi or CR7 but most will fail but by the time the hype train derails those who pumped them hardest will have long since departed, having pocketed fortunes & started pumping some other youth prospects.

    I enjoyed this. Seen it before many times.

    On the rare chance a pumper is called out after selling the player on, they simply dismiss it with something like 'hit a good profit margin, so locked the profit in'.



  • I'm relatively new to the Index myself but do have a good interest in U23 football, so feel I could offer some help.

    I think a sensible starting point is to research U21 international teams. A lot of the top nations now value age group football quite highly and have developed decent pathways to their senior teams, so it's a nice way of building a good knowledge of youth players and identifying players beyond the 'obvious ones' which have been fast-tracked (and prices have already rocketed on the Index).

    We are nearly midway through the current U21 international 'cycle', a 2-year period which would have finished with the U21 Euros in 2021 (now postponed). If you were to look back to the mid-point of the last cycle (in 2018), you'll see many of the names in the France/Spain/Germany/England etc. squads are doing pretty well now! Of course, some of the current cycle have already done well at club level which has increased their price on here (Fair few of the England U21 squad), but I think there's still plenty of good value in the other top nations.



  • @FI-Stoxxy always make sure their not under a certain age. 1st rule



  • @Voetbal I'm assuming you're Dutch?



  • You buy, you hype, you sell...



  • Troy Parrots price graph is typical of average youth players. Massive rise from IPOs at the start and then various ups and downs as said youth player alternates between bench and League cup.



  • @Voetbal very insightful and interesting! Thanks for sharing. I'll be sure to give this a lot of consideration.


Log in to reply