Three older Premier League players worth a go?
Jonesy FI WH last edited by
Again been trawling the sub £1 category but this time for Premier League players. I’m sure there are loads but 3 have caught my eye. The only thing holding me back is their age (though one isn’t that old).
Would like to know opinions on them. I appreciate they are not going to double in price but all 3 look capable of approx 25%-35% cap app rise once we get back to playing.
İlkay Gündoğan- Man City - 29 years old - currently 94p - Obviously not a regular starter but still made 39 appearances (5 goals, 4 assists) in all competitions this season. Been on the decline price wise but only a few months ago was hitting £1.28. Think he is one of Pep’s trusted allies. Cap app possible 35%
Ayoze Perez - Leicester City - 26 years old - currently 88p - Again doesn’t get into Leicester’s side week in week out and a little inconsistent but has 7 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances for a very attacking side. Always liable to have an exceptional game (the hat trick in the 9-0 demolition of Southampton springs to mind) so could win PB on any given day. Seems to have bottomed out now in price and another who was hitting highs of approx £1.11 not too long ago. Cap app possible 25%
Granit Xhaka - Arsenal - 28 years old - currently 77p - seems to be back in favour under Mikel Arteta and has started and completed the last dozen or so games (bar the Portsmouth cup game) and although he’s not going to chip in with a ton of goals and assists he hit a high of £1.01 recently and is another who seems to have hit his bottom price so hopefully only going one way - up. Also seems like a ticking time bomb after his war of words with the Arsenal fans so could get decent MB if it all goes sour again. Cap app possible 30%
As I said earlier you’re not going to get rich quick with these guys but I think all three offer you an almost guaranteed profit once the season starts again.
Personally I would not go for any of these, not right now anyway and not because of their ages.
Firstly i would not say that any of what you have stated as reasons for buy are wrong , they are each of them true facts however i think the situation is a bit more complicated when you look at the bigger picture.
Disclaimer:- this is my opinion I do not claim to have any higher knowledge, but you asked for thoughts and this is what i think.
So i can't remember exactly when it was, somewhere near the beginning of the season but it was all the rage to get into Gundogan as he was seen as a kind of poor mans KDP, he put in a couple of decent PB scores and he did ok and hit a peak of 1.77 from about 0.75 ish. Since then though it has been down hill from there, hence the decline in price. As you say he is in and out the team and he is not a bad player, but lack of KDB injury and the emergence of Rodri mid season seem to have put pay to any sort of comeback. Rather then being one of pep's allies in my opinion i see him as first on the chopping block should man city rebuild. I think the most he will be is cover now for either KDB or Rodri. Effectively what has happened is that all those people that got on on that rush early season have all but given up the ghost on him and have bailed (all be it with a little rise here and there but nothing major) So you have got the difference between 0.94 and 0.75 worth of people still hanging on in there. Like i say i don't think he is a bad player and he could work out to be a good investment, but i don't think the timing is right now (not for any quick gains anyway), if it was me i would want to have football back and see how the land lies then, He doesn't have the profile to be an automatic pic for most peoples portfolios so there is no FOMO factor there to generate any sort of rise right now, the guy is gonna need football to generate it, and to do that he needs to be in the team and that's is not a given right now. However if you are taking a long term view as in 6 months minimum then with the growth of the market and a few decent PB scores (he defo can hit them i am not denying that) to attract some soft money then you could get the 35 % you are looking for. If you are taking that view then this might not be a bad trade as you would be getting at more or less the bottom but be prepared to keep you money in for a while and be patient and don't be surprised if he slips back a bit more in the mean time.
Man, i just don't rate this guy, He has been around the Prem for years and has don't precisely nothing imo. He looked like he might be good when he first came through at Newcastle but since then, average at best. Honestly i think if Leicester could take him back for a refund they would. As you say in consistent, in and out the team, i think the only reason he played for Newcastle week in week out was because that team was poor. If you wait long enough any player will eventually score a hat-trick and get some PB but, i just cant see perez making a regular thing out it. Obviously he could come back and prove me wrong but i just think if he was gonna turn into a decent player he would have by now, unfortunately i think perez gets filed in the failed promising player pile, it happens, see Andreas Pereria for example.
I think that £1.01 peak was due to the media he got from that spat with the fans, before that he was a dead hold, so you got to ask yourself is that gonna happen again, probably not, and if not what else can happen to generate a price wise, again without football is that really realistic, with football he is more likely to score an own goal or get himself sent off rather then score of assist which again does not bode well for PB scores and does not sit to well with the IS crew who will ditch a player if it even looks like he might be subbed let alone sent off and then you find that any positive growth you might have a crewed gets wiped out in about a second. Just on relation to the media angle as well, If he did say get sent off swear at the fans and call Arteta a C**T, then no doubt he will get written about, but i would urge you to consider that there is a media review coming, what if they make it so that negative stories count negative points or something like that, again I have no prior/higher/inside/ericali hasn't told me its coming or anything like that, but currently any negative scores generated my the media word matrix get played about with to produce an over all positive result, which is why De Gea won MB for basically chucking it in his own net lol. If that situation changes (which is conceivable) then you could end up with a player that is a negative media magnet which no one will want and you cant shift. Again if you want to get involved in Xhakka i would wiat for the season to restart before i put money in.
Again these are my opinions on why i would not put money into these players, but if you disagree or think that the positives out weight the negative then go for it, my advise is that if you are looking down in the sub £ market then you just need to cover all angles and realize that some players are down there for a reason and is not always as simple as well he is a bit old.
Apologies if i have pissed on your parade
Jonesy FI WH last edited by
Not pissed on my parade at all mate. It’s an excellent reply.
Only just starting out on FI so it’s always good to hear other angles. I am still perplexed how it works sometimes. Players who look excellent on paper and have several caps for their international teams are £1, yet a 17 year old in France who’s made 2 ten minute appearances off the bench is worth £3 and then shoots up 30p based on a square ball pass.
I’ve read and researched a ton but clearly it will take a very very long time to FULLY grasp the concept.
For now I will leave the above 3 players, but rest assured I will hunt you down when they all hit £1.50 in 3 months time :)
I’m a huge fan of Perez. He spent half his time at Newcastle playing out of position and nearly all his time at Leicester doing the same. He gets subbed off every week between 60-70 mins. Basically he is having his work ethic used against him because he does the ugly stuff too. He then gets replaced by players (Namely Gray) who only do the attacking stuff. When Leicester got a few injuries including Vardy he stayed on... and guess what happened? He scored a couple! He’s got goals and assists in him and if Leicester get into CL and he can do anything of note against a Spanish team then his price will go up. If Vardy does continue to suffer the odd niggle playing extra games at 34 then Perez may get more opportunities further forward and in a more central role. His talent is greater than his achievement but he needs to be allowed to prosper.
No need if they hit £1.50 plus in 3 months i will take myself out the back and shoot myself lol
Its no problem mate, we have all been there, honestly it takes about 3 months before you head stops spinning after you join up, but you get there in the end!and its well worth it.
The weird thing for me that took a while to get my head around, was the realization that a players price has absolutely nothing to do with what they do on the pitch (as in say FPL) its all about peoples perceptions of a player and what they might do at some point in the future hence, its an educated guess. Also a lot of it is to do with profile as well, Take Sancho for example, he price has risen not because of anything he does on the pitch directly, its because if you asked random of the street to name 1 player who is doing well and under 19/20 years old, 9 out of 10 of them will say jaydon sancho, then all these people come on FI in the new user influx due to FI expanding their marketing etc and whats the first thing they do, they go buy sancho cause the world and his wife know about him and its a rush to get on before he gets any higher, which is why he has got up in price so much so quickly, things like transfers to big teams Utd in this case then go add to his profile so more people know about him, then more people buy and so on. That 17 year old french kid who is £3 is people guessing that he will be the next big thing to get on a the bottom of another massive sancho esc rise.
There are like like two main market drivers on here really, Performance on the pitch i.e. dividends and the other is Hype. The trick is to find players that can deliver either one of the other or preferable both, only trouble is its hard to find that in the sub £ market, hard but not impossible. But if you are playing the hype game then you just have to be a bit weary incase the sentiment changes. Just depends on what sort of trader you want to be.
Your port looks decent though you got some decent picks in there for sure.
I took a punt on Moutinho earlier in the year. Down 10p roughly and my last hope is EL divs. He did get me 1p in IPDs tho lol
Out the three id only touch perez if I had to pick one can’t see much growth for the other two neither can I see where any growth is gonna come from
I agree to some extent with your view on Xhaka. Although in the short term, he is likely to be a dead hold, he does have potential to grow in the long term in my opinion.
He is currently a central figure in the Swiss national team. At the age of 27, he is playing much more advanced role then in Arsenal, including scoring goals (2 in 8 in Euro qualifiers) and taking set pieces. Switzerland will play in the group with Italy, Wales and Turkey during Euro 2020, so it's relatively safe to say, they will play at least 4 games in the tournament. Given the Swiss are a solid side, they are likely to qualify for the WC in 2022, when Xhaka will be 29, so still more then capable.
On top of that he has played for Arsenal since 2016 and he hasn't exactly received much love from the British media and general public alike. I feel like he will be on the move in the next 1-2 years and his natural direction would be Germany (which is a very popular country FI-wise at the moment). He played for Gladbach before and he already had links with Hertha this January. If the second move materialised, he could become a leader of an average team, responsible for playmaking and taking set pieces (like he is for the national side), which would be fantastic for his PB. Something like Parejo in Valencia.
He is also not a quiet character, so another media outbreak similar to the one in November is not impossible....
Don't think the 3 are that bad tbh. I hold Gundogan. Just waiting for KDB to break his leg and then Gundogans on set pieces, happy days
Frodo Swaggins last edited by
Key question to ask and a lesson I've had to figure out over time is not 'why do you think they will rise', its 'why would the FI market buy into them'. Often I find they are not the same answer. The more intune you are with what drives the market, the greater chance of ROI you have.
For example I've learned players who look good don't always get the reward as they don't produce consistent PB. Equally youth who've done bugger all divs wise get heavily invested into largely on hype/promise/reputation. Learn the trends and follow them where you feel comfortable.