BUY price vs DIVS expectancy POLL (v2)





  • I worded the last one pretty poorly! This is what I meant πŸ˜‚πŸ‘



  • @ScouseSte didn't think you worded it poorly, what did you answer to my question?πŸ˜‚



  • @Notanyoldnewuser said in BUY price vs DIVS expectancy POLL (v2):

    @ScouseSte didn't think you worded it poorly, what did you answer to my question?πŸ˜‚

    Haha I replied something like "can you ask this question again on the new thread cos I'm deleting this one mate" πŸ˜‚



  • @ScouseSte i would reinstate your old one as there was a lot of valuable information and the wording didnt break the results.



  • @Black-wolf I don't want to spam the forum mate.

    Plus I pressed a button that ended the poll so it won't reflect a true consensus after just an hour

    Still getting the hang of this poll palarva πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚



  • @ScouseSte no. πŸ˜‚



  • @ScouseSte i think this poll makes less sense though. You can only hold for 3 years and at some point you need to sell and rebuy meaning entry point vs career dividends is irrelevant as you entry point will change over the space of a career.

    Additionally the dividends over an entire career should nearly always amount to over 100%. At sanchos current price id fully expect him to return Β£1.40 per year for the next 10 years but thats not within my reach, if im looking for 100% dividend return i would need Β£4.50 per year



  • @ScouseSte you've asked the same question lol. You don't mean their career you mean from entry point to exit point don't you? Reinstate the other thread πŸ˜‚



  • @ScouseSte

    I’m still new so can’t judge really but based on what I’ve seen (Though things are different now-extreme MB but no PB) I expect some of the big guns to get towards 100% but still think that there are players who will probably get next to nothing but gain cap app via potential etc.

    So I’d imagine the answer varies for different purchases or is answered as an average.



  • @Vespasian32 he means what he said, he's just talking about the fundamental way if valuing a player through lifetime earnings



  • @Notanyoldnewuser then everything in the other thread is valid... He said he was expecting to earn 50% divs then sell... That's not career divs that's 3 year divs. If he expects a player to earn 50% of their price in their whole career... I don't see how he would expect to be able to sell after 3 years for cap ap.



  • Open the other thread so we can just copy n paste it all in here and avoid the same conversation... Ste your last comment you mentioned earning 50% then selling... Not that the player would only earn 50% over career.. That's the game changer in valuation



  • Polls are so frustrating if you realise you've made an error or want to reword something. You cannot change them once they are out there. I get why this is so but so annoying.



  • @Black-wolf said in BUY price vs DIVS expectancy POLL (v2):

    @ScouseSte i think this poll makes less sense though. You can only hold for 3 years and at some point you need to sell and rebuy meaning entry point vs career dividends is irrelevant as you entry point will change over the space of a career.

    Additionally the dividends over an entire career should nearly always amount to over 100%. At sanchos current price id fully expect him to return Β£1.40 per year for the next 10 years but thats not within my reach, if im looking for 100% dividend return i would need Β£4.50 per year

    No it makes sense, it does. Trust me. πŸ˜† Let me explain...

    I am looking at buying Sancho (for example) as a long-term hold. For it to be a worthwhile trade to me, I have to expect that Sancho will earn 50% of his value over the next 10yrs or so.
    Now, that's not to say I will hold for that long. But it's a good target to set. It allows me to make a decision on when I want to sell or whether I rebuy to keep it going -

    Let's say I buy now at Β£13.50. On that basis, I'm anticipating at least Β£6.75 in divs over his remaining playing career (likely more because of div increases but I'm just going on today's payouts for simplicity).
    So, after 3 years from today Sancho has earned me say Β£1.50 in divs. Sure, circumstances change along the way so we of course factor this into our decisions, but if I'm sticking to initial projections then I should just rebuy (with Β£5.25 still expected over the next 7+ years).
    Or, I sell at what will likely be a great profit (he'd easily be over Β£16 if he had earned 50p per season in divs).

    My view is, if you have an ideal percentage that you'd want back in divs, you can make better decisions on when to sell. I think that's the aim here, in a roundabout way πŸ€·πŸ»β€β™‚οΈπŸ˜‚



  • @Dalian-Smith said in BUY price vs DIVS expectancy POLL (v2):

    Polls are so frustrating if you realise you've made an error or want to reword something. You cannot change them once they are out there. I get why this is so but so annoying.

    Maybe he should just leave the polls to the expert eh?? πŸ€£πŸ˜‰



  • @ScouseSte in that method you should look at players with 100%+ cos who buys sancho when his price is Β£6.75 and he will win no divs?



  • You buy 13.50 and in 3 years make Β£1.75 divs

    He has Β£5 divs in the tank... What price is the next guy gona buy him off you for? I'd suggest... Β£5 which puts you are a horrendous loss πŸ˜‚

    He then earns Β£1.75 and sancho has Β£3.25 in the tank.. What price is he selling for?



  • @Vespasian32 said in BUY price vs DIVS expectancy POLL (v2):

    @ScouseSte in that method you should look at players with 100%+ cos who buys sancho when his price is Β£6.75 and he will win no divs?

    That's a whole new set of circumstances - if Sancho is Β£6.75 in price, he has either clearly flopped and not earned anywhere near 50% divs (from when purchased at Β£13.50 today), been severely injured, or is in his 30s.

    But let's say I've never owned Sancho and he is Β£6.75 at some point in the future. My same model still applies - do I expect 50% of his value back in divs? If so, I'll buy. Bear in mind, if he's 29 at this point and divs are probably 4 times the value they are now, making Β£3.38 in divs shouldn't be impossible.



  • @ScouseSte but he maybe expected to return what your aiming for in 10 years but return nothing in the next 3, which is your term of the hold. Your expected return has to be based on a period within 3 years of buying otherwise you could hold a player for 3 years and make nothing at all which is a wasted investment and the money would have been safer and more rewarding in the bank


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