Christian Gunter opinions?
What are the thoughts on him ? Surely is worth more than £0.63 ?!
Vaughany last edited by
I have held him for a number of months and still waiting for him to take off. He's got the potential to deliver PB divs as he's on set pieces and contributes a decent goal/assist return from left back/left wing back but has yet to do so.
If you buy him you'll probably need to be patient but you might get a few IPDs as a bonus in the short term.
@Vaughany I already hold him only 107 features I was just wandering if I should still hold him or offload the guy I guess with bundesliga being the only football on will have all eyes on the competition and if he plays well he might attract some attention from traders
He doesn't interest me at the moment, 27 years old, not playing for a big BL club and not a regular in the national team.
Vaughany last edited by
Tough call. Might be tempting to sell if he spikes between now and when the other leagues resume if you are tired of him and want the funds to spend elsewhere.
Longer term, it may be wishful thinking on my part but I was thinking he might move in the next year or so. He's been at Freiburg his whole career and I wonder if he might want to try something else. He's 27 now and his current contract runs until 2022 so he could leave in 12 months time and Freiburg would still get a transfer fee for him.
@R9inter I would wait and sell at a spike as long as you are in profit. Stick him on your watch list and if he starts getting transfer rumours/ cap app, buy back in quick.
I don't think you will make your fortune on him though, but obviously my opinion only.
@Kipper72 my plan is to sell him before more football starts , just hoping that before then he nails a good game and sell him then !
@R9inter I think that is the sensible option and the fact you are asking advice on him makes me think you wanted someone to confirm your own thoughts?
Hope he makes you a bit of profit. Anything above the 2% commission is profit and at £0.63 this is very achievable.
But as a disclaimer, I now wait until I have at least 20% cap app on my lower value players to stop me selling to early.
My assessment would be this
I think that he is probably worth more then 0.63 but not that much more but you could make some money on him short term but its very risky way to risky for me!!
Balls of steel if you pull this one off.
His peak price is 0.79 and i think you will need to really hit that for the trade to be worth while and i think you will need a lot of stuff to go your way to realize it, but that is not to say that it wont happen its certainly not impossible.
So if you bought 107 futures at 0.63 = 67.41 outlay
if he gets back to his peak of 0.79 you get 84.53 back - 1.69 commission so total cap app would be 82.84 - 67.41 = 15.43
However for this to happen I believe Gunter is going to have to shift 900 x 16 = 14400 futures (disclaimer it may not be 900 shares at this price point i am just using this as a worst case scenario) I think that for this to happen he is either going to have to win PB or get really close to winning PB (to create a buzz around him) and then win it the next week (or that buzz will be gone and that will be it game over man), some sort of scenario like that (massive transfer rumour would also do the job). But if it does happen and he wins PB starman and defender on what is mostly likely a silver day then he would get
0.08 x 107 = 8.56 in divs
So if it all comes off then i would say you would max out at 15.43 + 8.56 = 23.99 total profit, so that's 23.99/67.41 (inital outlay) = 0.35 = 35% in addition to any cap app that you already have.
Possible angle that could help you out all football is german for a while so no trent, no van dyke, no laporte, and the kimmiech and hakimi problems have been taken care of by a positional change so you could say that the defender catagory for PB is looking pretty open. Likely competition philiip max, johnatan tah, pavard ? so i guess you got to just look at the fixtures and have a punt if you think that he can perform better then his competition. So i think it comes down to do you think that he can win PB divs in the next 1 or 2 rounds of the bundersliga if so then you could make 35% (maybe more if he exceeds his peak price) if you don't then you might as well list to market now and see if you get any takers. Personally with such a long break between games pre covid form will be out the window (think preseason) so quite honestly anything could happen when football returns, but really i think this bet would be just a shot in the dark at best and could easily go sideways.
@Chris-C that was a brilliant and very objective answer , thank you for that ! I bought him at £0.59 so I guess the only sensible thing to do is give him a chance and if in 2/3 weeks nothing happens sell him as I am above 2% for now if he keeps above that at least I won’t loose anything but if it all comes together would be a nice little win wouldn’t make me rich but would be satisfying
No problem man, your welcome : )
dionysusthyrsus last edited by
@R9inter Quite like the fixture away to Bremen next weekend and also has a friday night game at home to Leverkusen on the 29th that all eyes will be on given its the only fixture. Not too sure how much the average index user would be aware of gunter tbf, but got a feeling one of those 2 games people will begin to cotton on.
It shouldnt be long before people look at the likes of mittlestadt and max and how they are priced to see that gunter looks underpriced by comparison. He has the raw tools that if he has a bit of luck could produce peaks scores that he hasnt hit as of yet that the other 2 have. Despite not having the output max has goals wise, he shoots just as frequently, in fact he sits 3rd overall for shots amongst bundesliga defenders this season with 27 and tied 2nd for most assists amongst bundesliga defenders with 5.
Oddly, Gunters peak pb score of 209 this season also coincided with his least amount of passes in a game (7) since pb records began and a decidedly low base score of 66 compared to his average base score of 84 this season. That is an odd and unfortunate misalignment.
Only KDB, Kostic and Trent have a better crosses per game output in europe in a pb league this season. All it could take would be for freiburg to get on top of a team early doors and win a few corners for people to take notice him with such limited football being played. He wouldnt necessarily even need to win pb to see a good spike.
Looks like there will be 3 optimal opportunities to sell on paper if you were looking to get out in the next month. For a defender who takes corners for his club, that shouldnt be too difficult.
He’s a decent hold only 26 attacking full back; not every player is going to rise over £2, but this guy will be in with a chance of winning PB on any given game day over the next 3 years.
Sub £1 players that can win PB will be some of those that benefit from the changes coming, without the pumpers and dumpers operating in the same fashion those that do research and find some of these potential gems should do well.
I’ve held him for a while and we’ll in profit, bought him for PB on bronze days when a couple of wins will give me a decent ROI.
Others have a different opinion which is great and I get their point of view I just disagree.