Being results orientated - a discussion.
This is something we see on the forum and social media, a lot. General comments could include:
I sold xxx for £2.00 profit, I hope he doesn't keep going up and it is a bad decision.
I won't know if it is a bad decision for a few weeks/months.
I sold xxx at a slight loss and this was a bad decision.
I sold xxx at a decent profit, it was a good decision.
Now, all these statements, although fairly common, are actually wrong. What happens to a price after you have sold is not at all relative to the decision you have made.
You can sell a player for a profit and then he rocket afterwards and it be a good decision.
And you can buy a player and then see him drop and that be a bad decision.
Decisions are based on the information you have at the time. If you have information that Man U are going to bid on a player and you sell early, that could be a mistake.
If you have information that a player is joining a team that has better PB potential but then he doesn't fulfill it, that doesn't make it a bad decision.
In other situations:
Poker - You lose with QQ so next time fold the hand.
Coin flips - You see a fair coin flipped 10 heads in a row so you then increase your bet on it being heads the 11th time or on it coming up tails (because it is still 50-50% right!)
So whether it is a bad decision or not is based on the available information at the time of the decision. Anything that happens after that does not influence that.
I should also add, being results orientated in business is different to that in gambling and I am referring to the gambling definition.
Martyn B last edited by
Best example of this is when you decide, for or against, buying a player you have held previously. First trade is completely independent of second trade, although I do wish FI wouldn't show your historical dividends when you rebuy a player!
Also applies when topping up. Not topping up because your player has doubled in value is daft if you still believe their is plenty of growth left in the trade.
@MrWh1te yeah i treat every trade like a different bet, it either wins or losses at the time of sale. It took me a while to get into this mindset as its easy to wish you had held on longer or got out sooner but it doesnt work like that. The hardest part for me is what @Martyn-B has said, i used to be against buying players i had held previously but i know now this is a terrible way to trade as you are limiting your ability to profit efficiently and players circumstances are constantly changing on FI and in the real world
Great thread. I very much feel like this. I bought 2000 shares in Bruno fernandes at £2 knowing that it was very likely he was going to united his price nearly hit £3 but then I heard he wasn't going so I sold at £2.80 and made a decent profit. After I looked into the transfer spec it was found out that there wasn't even a bid placed for Bruno and fernandes agent was just being a prick and impossible to work with. Knowing that I didn't buy in again around £2.20 for January transfer window as I would have done the same again and obviously the rest is history!! He hits £10 but my trade was a very good one regardless to what happened after.