I might be wrong but ....



  • I was thinking about what the best plan of action would be with the introduction of the matching engine and I came to the conclusion that for my particular circumstances the best thing to do is sit back do nothing and watch my port value go up , yes I could potentially find some bargains but right now I don’t have a cash balance or the funds to deposit unless they introduce the matching engine after the 7th of June .
    My point is the sell queues are miles long and I hold decent players that I picked for the long term because I thought and think that they will grow in price will have transferrumors and potential pb!
    So as the amount of shares can’t be reduced means that virtually their price can’t really loose value as shares just go from one trader to another , so ones the sell queues shorten up and everyone sold and bought on the matching engine we should see some real figures on our portofolios , meaning if I have player x down 5p because 45000 shares are up for sale with the matching engine those share will partly or fully swap hands and that -5p should go up to 0 ( obviously if people do buy playerx)

    I don’t think I have been very clear as English isn’t my first language but I think our portofolio wont necessary be hit hard all depends what kind of players we bought we might even end up in profit by doing nothing just sit back and watch

    Opinions?



  • @R9inter other than those with long queues tho... What makes you think the rest will go up?

    Due to covid we are already in a buyers market... Where majority of players are down from peak price due to no football.

    We are now adding a bidding system which accentuates the buyers market cos they can offer cut prices to pick up bargains... And sellers have no power to list above current price.

    To offset what I think will be a stagnant market I think they should have;

    1. wait till a more positive time... I. E. Return of football (so we are selling into a rising market to offset the affect of too many bargain hunters)

    2. allow IS at normal rates, as they previously stated, for a set time before OB go live. This will allow people to change strategy and maintains goodwill.

    3. couple it with news of div increase or new mb system that we are due in summer anyway... All big changes in one swoop so we can then have a settled market. Also would tie in with point 1... Selling into a rising market to balance the power between buyer & seller



  • @Vespasian32 I havent found that players are down from peak since covid. Out of my 50 player port I would say all of them have peaked during Covid period mainly having big rises during DB and dropping off a bit since but definately not dropping lower than they were. Most of my port is under 24 so maybe it's different to others.



  • I think you’re right that prices seem depressed at the moment due to lengthening sale queues and buyers waiting to see if they can pick up some bargains. Deflation often occurs when people hold on to their money in expectation that lower prices are around the corner. On Football Index this is kind of a self fulfilling prediction.

    You also highlight one of the things I can’t get my head around as regards prices. If there are 45000 share in a queue and that has depressed the price by 5p, then if those sellers unlist and sell at say 5% below the current price then the quote price will rise by 5p even though shares are trading hands at much less that the current stated price. It doesn’t make sense to me and perhaps gives people a false sense of what their shares are worth. They are only truly worth what you can sell them for.



  • @Frank-Mole-Pepys yeh strange concept that unlisting Bruno at £9.70 but selling him for even £6 will see his price go up lol. That's why I think players with the longest sell queues are the best buys right now.



  • @Vespasian32
    Not sure I'd be buying a player with a long sell queue now. Once buying order books come in these are the players that will likely be available to buy via lower offers as holders look to exit quicker. In the meantime Bruno might be worth more on paper, but his market price selling time is about a month - so its not like you'll be able to quickly flip him.



  • @NewUser565183 yes but as said above someone sells for less and it counts as a buy and his price goes up. His price will be £10.50 pretty quick as all those people whove sat with him in the queue for £9.70 can unlist and accept bids.

    Then when he is £10.50 and say he start with IS between £9-9.50 by time footy comes back thst will tighten up massively and I can sell for £10+



  • @Frank-Mole-Pepys it does make sense , as no matter if the shares are for sale or not the point is that in FI there is 45000 shares of playerx so without IS (FI buying it back and eliminating shares ) means that don’t matter where the shares are it can’t go any lower than that price but as you say if you can’t sell they are worth nothing , but you will be able to sell as long the player is in some ways valuable/interesting essentially won’t change much we will have just to get used to it

    I was very much against order books but once I got my head around it came to the conclusion that in my personal circumstances won’t change nothing as I don’t go for unknown Iranians players ( as for example )

    As long u research your player and he is going to be in demand at some point we should all be fine



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