10k and Divs (Ronaldo/Messi)
Leclerc last edited by Leclerc
A friend of mine is considering starting up the Index pretty soon, he's been following my port with me for the last month or so and likes what he sees, although Ive explained there is far greater rewards (and risk) for someone less 'safe' than myself. I have explained the mechanics of dividends (MB, PB, IPD) as well previous bonuses (deposit bonus, transfer bonus, etc) and the share split which occured last year.
His initial thinking was to take about 10k, snd throw 2k down on 5 hard dividend winners (ideally competing for both PB and MB). He asked advice on who regularly wins forms of both.
As a dual MB and PB threat, I responded with Messi, Neymar and Bruno. I explained that PB was lottery like as any 40p defender could outscore your player that day. For 2 more, I said maybe check these 5: Sancho, Ronaldo, Werner, Kane, Rashford.
Today he's phoned me saying he's going ahead next week with Messi, Neymar, Bruno, Ronaldo, and Rashford.
I own a few Neymar and Bruno but not the others. Rashford was quite easy to back given his age, situation with Utd and England, FWD, etc.
Can any Messi and Ronaldo holders provide the latest mindset of holding these two? Undoubted GOATs, regular PB (moreso Messi) and PB. Ronaldo will definitely play Euro 21, and I imagine both should be available for WC 22, but what kind capital depreciation can you guys see them suffering over lets say a 12 month period from now? Would an increase in divs also help grow their prices again?
My friend looks pretty dead cert on what he wants to do, just want to give him all the info I can!
Thanks for reading
I wouldn't buy Messi myself, never mind tell my friend to! Too risky at his age and price.
Maybe tell him to switch from Messi to someone like Kane or even a bit more in Rashford and Bruno.
Gregolocky last edited by
@Leclerc I hold 4/5 not ( Ronaldo ) of the players mentioned and I’ll be looking to get outta Messi within the next 12 months. There’s just too much risk involved with Messi and Ronaldo now for my liking.
I’d maybe buy a few Sancho but not too many, I’d buy some and wait to see where he ends up and if he drops some bit after the move I’d top up depending on club and possible position change
I think from a simplistic stand point of looking at a 12 month period (say from now until the 'end' of next season, whenever that is), the questions are:
Will their dividend wins outweigh their capital depreciation?
If an anticipated dividend increase happens, will they rise again? (Messi was £6.50 in November before soaring back down to his pre-November price. Ronaldo grew to about £3.50ish was it?)
By the end of next season, if Im attempting to envisage their 'bottom' prices, given their situations stay as they are, what would they be? I cant see a sub £2.50 Ronaldo next year (look at Lewandowski as an IPD or PB only threat), and I cant see Messi dropping below £3.50 given his dual threat, slightly younger than ronaldo, etc)
My thoughts are as follows:-
I cant believe you left pogba off your list, good at PB when he plays, and the united media tends to gravitate towards him so he takes the lions share, seems to be staying put on the basis that no body can afford him and Utd don't look like they want to take everyone else's crap so as far as i can see he is stuck for at least another year, and if he has changed his mind about going then new contract will bring MB for many more years.
If you (or your friend) want Messi then i would suggest getting on soon, you would not want him if he gets over a £5. Like others have said an exit in the next 12 months of so would best as it may well become very dicey after that. Having said that he does pick up a fair bit of media and his is the creme de la creme of PB so, i think there is still enough there to invest in him in the short term, but a 3 year bet at this stage you might end up losing on so be careful. Same for Ronaldo, my gut feeling is that the end of WC22 will be the stage where they both go, I cant see one retiring before the other.
Bruno, cant argue with that one.
Neymar is a strange one, 2nd only to messi in the PB stakes, gets decent media, but i think the expectation was that this season would end in a massive long drawn out transfer saga between PSG and Barca. But with covid 19, the problems that Barca have then fact that they are trying to shift dembele for 37M (ie a 100M loss) does not look good for a possible 200M incomming transfer. Likely that barca might have shelved those plans and are going after martinez instead. Having said that he should still pick up his normal (non transfer related) MB which is considerable and he is a nice price at the moment.
Sancho and Rashford
Sancho will earn good media over from now until the the start of next season, and if he moves to utd then he MIGHT get re classified as a forward if utd go back to a 4-3-3 which will help his price stay high. If it were me i would buy both and have roughly equal amounts of each, I think that once the transfer is confirmed there could be an equalization between Sancho and Rashford (why spend 13 odd on Sancho if you can get Rashford for half the price, when he is playing a very similar position for the same team) so i think that money could shift from one to the other, hence you would not want to be holding one without the other, i think to cover yourself you should look to build positions in both.
Not held Kane, but from what people have said, is that his media is patchy at best (MB for days and then nothing for months) also imo suffers from the same issues as many number 9s with regards to getting high enough Pb scores to win but to be fair he does seem to be the best of the bunch.
In actual fact if your friend was looking long term (next year or so), it would not be the worst idea to have holdings in Sancho,Bruno,Rashford and Pogba, and spend the change on some Fred. Yeah its utd heavy, but over the next year or so i think utd will be resurgent and that means MB and PB incomming lots of it.
Failing that haaland, ok he is not so good at PB now, but could well end up being an MB goldmine over the next few years, with mino riaola steering his career i think MB is a given even if his PB isn't, the shit this guy comes out with in his interviews reminds me of Prime Zlatan and the media will love that sort of thing.
Werner's short term value is transfer dependent, good PB, but a move to liverpool could change that, but a move to utd and his price explodes, that's the risk your taking, honestly i think this one could go either way, so go with you gut or give it a wide birth.
@Chris-C, thank you for a detailed analysis, really helps loads mate!
Im with you on that, cannot believe I forgot Pogba given I own shares in him too! I guess because he hasnt played a PB game in ages I just forgot that he was actually a very good PB players. Plus with his Utd / France situation, and the fact that he wins media from haircuts and nutmegging his mother!
Rashford and Sancho I very much agree with you there. Hold no rashford and a minor amount of Sancho, but I could well see the money shifting from to one another, regardless of whether Sancho moves to Utd or not! I know the Utd move and all other factors are put in Sanchos price, do you think a potential change to FWD is in that price too? (probably is if hes £13!)
Werner I believe can go a bit more than what you say, as hes not a bad PB player. The Liverpool move is in his price, but then post-transfer I can see a drop to maybe 4.50-5 again. Another season at Leipzig would be great, or as you say, a Utd move. As well as Euro 21, WC22, and one of the stars of the German national team and likely one their media darlings (their 'Kane', although totally different players). I think one thing which works for Werner well is the anticipated expansion to Germany in the future, whenever that will be. I could see that pushing him to over £8 in 12 months from now.
I agree with Messi and Ronaldo, I just cant see much for them after WC22. Messi going back to Newells, and Ronaldo maybe a swansong in the USA? I think timing an exit around whenever the next anticipated dividend increases would be might the best bet here, but not 100% sure. To buy one of each at market price is circa £8.30. Between now and a div increase (lets say 6-12 months from now), I cant see that combined total dropping below £6.80 (£4.20 and £2.60 respectively). The question is, will a div increase push that back, or close, to what it is today? An extra £1.50? If so, this could be a feasible exit strategy, essentially taking the dividends for free.
Unfortunately I dont have the funds he does, but I feel when he invests Il be just as much involved in his port as I would be the reason he joined. I know Im not obligated, but I couldnt help but fe bad if it went tits up, even if they were his purchases! Tried to explain to him to start, a couple hundred maybe and feel out the market for a month or two to examine the dynamics of the index, traders mentality, forum, twitter, etc. I guess Im the safe 'diversify with lower ROI' guy, and hes the 'guns out quids in' kind!
Valhalla last edited by Valhalla
Tell him to stay away from Messi and Ronaldo. Both dividend beasts, but they will constantly be depreciating. And if either got a serious injury (that a youngster could recover from) there could be apocalyptic losses.
Martyn B last edited by Martyn B
This is the second and third spot on my all time dividends list:
The amounts invested are roughly what your friend is considering. Going from memory only as full details are on my laptop.
Most shares roughly a year old. Bought into Ronnie (think 100), then topped up when knocked out of CL, then topped up again after rape claims. Held 500 for most of year, topped up 100 in last fortnight. Messi bought mid May last year in one block.
Past dividends are no indicator of future dividends but think they will both return similar in the next year. Having regular hybrid dividend winners keeps my cash balance topped up and allows me to trade and play without making deposits.
Early days of ME but both look a lot less of a risk than a month ago.
Edit: Also think in next year both will benefit from PB and MB dividends increase, MB on surnames and international MB changes.
Also @Chris-C , I explained Haaland and Mbapoes current prices. Mainly due to hype, real life performances, and people futureproofing their buys for these guys too. Index and real life dont always transmit (e.g look at Mane). Haaland wins some MB, IPD and only will win PB with a minimim of 2 goals, maybe 3 (one as a GWG). Mbappe would win more PB if he didnt have Neymar to compete with, as the likes of Di Maria, Sarabia etc would all be assisting him still.
Explaining the art of inter team competition was interesting too. His face was one of 'WTF'. The reasoning behind why guys like Robertson (Trent), Martial (Rashford), Modric (Kroos) as well as Mbappe all currently suffer a bit from having greater PB threats in their classified positions.
Splurger_Dan last edited by
Look no further than TAA at 21 yrs old. Top pb earner without sacrificing capp app.
@Valhalla , thank you, you are quite right when you say one bad injury could screwn it all up. Sure, all footballers are susceptible to that, but at their age its always a worry. I think Ronaldo I wouldnt be overly worried as his conditioning is amazing. Messi maybe moreso as hes never come across as the fitness machine that Ronsldo is
Valhalla last edited by
@Leclerc Ronaldo is fitness freak. It’s unbelievable he’s performing at his age. But if he got a serious injury, you would be backing a 36 yr old by the time he comes back. No certainties there.
@Martyn-B , that is fantastic, thank you for sharing that screenshot! Happy for your returns too mate!
40-45% returns on your overall outlay for them in a 12 month period is just phenomenal. I agree with the div increase argument too, as that was one of the things I mentioned as a 'maybe in the future' to my friend as a potential exit point when mentioning my initial 3 players to him (Messi, Neymar, Bruno). Youve topped up on Ronaldo at just the right times too, fantastic!
I agree with the hybrid dividend winners too. Keep that balance ticking over. My friends eyes lit up at the thought of dividends, so thats his #1 aim. 10% deposit bonuses had him all giddy too!
Out of interest, have you considered when your potential exits may be? Would be timing related (12 months, earlier, later?) or are you waiting for a specific event (div increase, Euro 21, WC22, a star man PB day, etc)
@Splurger_Dan, thank you. I didnt mention TAA due to the lack of MB and the fact the papers would call him Trent or TAA. But apart from MB, literally everything is going for him! As a holder Ive been fortunate with him. Will mention though (and show this thread to him). His PB stats, set pieces, crosses, Liverpool, England, young, etc, all great.
@Valhalla , very true sir! Even on returning from a real bad injury at 36, I can see the swansong to the USA coming a bit earlier than maybe he even thought.
Martyn B last edited by
Exit for Messi would probably be a dividend increase which should spike his price 10 to 20% and also a quick sell when people are buying. Depends on increase date, maybe next one or wait a year? He is the bigger risk of the two and age and sentiment are against him.
Ronnie probably different as I usually bought the dips, so I can sell the older more expensive blocks of 100, decreasing my risk and my average price. So ideally looking for 5 or 6 events between the end of next season and the WC.
Boom TAA what a great shout that is, completely forgot about him, geezer has got defender PB sewn up for the next 10 years probably (he doesn't need MB but he will get some as he is young and english and a proper scouser hence he will get the local lad tag in the media much like rashford does for utd).
Your right about Werner, again completely forgot about the German expansion,I knew there was another reason why i held him, way before the liverpool transfer links started happening. Like i say the one worry with that is that liverpool tank his PB scores and you get a salah esq decline. I do like him as a hold though, i would be gutted to have to sell him because if the reason above, personally i hope he either stays at leipzig or goes to utd.
Yeah i hear what you are saying about haaland and mbappe, again i agree that a lot of their price is as you say due to future proofing. out the two of them i agree that is probably gonna be Mbappe that starts justifying his price PB wise, but i don't see him as a MB powerhouse, i cant see him ever coming to the EPL for example, but with media expansion it remains to be seen how much of a problem that would be, guess we will find out over the off season. Haaland i think could go the other way, and just be a MB power house, just because of his character and the mino factor.
Will the div increase hold back any cap dep on Messi/Ron? urmm possibly but i think it would only delay rather the stop it. I only hold Messi with no plans to hold ronaldo, I see it as this. Messi finishes rest of season, go into off season FI announce a div increase, messi goes up in price but he wont hit £6 again, this could be a time to sell but if you are only getting on now then you are only gonna have a few games to win divs in (end of this season) so whats the point. So if you hold then you get more games, he earns higher divs and you look to get out by December at the latest (or at least sort of mid season whenever that turns out to be) if you want to keep the cap app caused by the div increase. But if you want to hold longer then i think you will eat into any margin you had in mind at the beginning. I think that's fine so long as he keeps winning PB, but any serious injury at any point and its all over because everyone will bail and with his age i don't think he will have enough pull to get all that money back so he wont fully recover his price like he would have done in his younger days so ithink the days of owning messi and selling on for divs and cap app are gone, its a choice now between one of the other.
Like you i only have limited budget, i have 25 messi, plan is to top up to 50 reasonably soon for as cheap as poss as i want to get his avg down below £5, ride through any div increase, go into next season and try to maximise his divs (by holding more) and then exit at some point before euro 2021 (price wise i am not to worried a will be happy just to cover the commission of the sale), then i think that will be it, its just too dicey after that. I definitely would not want to be holding hundreds of Messi futures at this stage.
Also the other thing i would say, just taking messi and ronaldo out the equation for a minute, is that a good regular dividend earner that's not old e.g. TAA or Bruno tend not to fall in price and if anything they just keep going up as well as earning divs, i.e. a player like that has two revenue streams to earn you money (Divs and CA) where as a young starlet player only has 1 (CA) and if he doesn't do the business then that can quickly be lost. Its a much more volatile situation that can go both ways. These sorts of players will start of cheap(ish) and so compared to a Bruno or TAA you can buy more with less money, therefore having a 2000/8000 split Divs/CA seems like overkill. Better to have more of the money on more stable, less volatile holds, providing two streams of income then it is to have it all on the next Bruno /TAA because there is i high probability that they are not, and if they are not then, your capital is going to get eaten up and they wont be earning enough divs to compensate. if you put more into the div earners then you will win more divs, and then you can use those divs to speculate on CA buys without any risk as it was free money to start with. Even if you did find the next TAA and you got him for under a £, even having £500 is going to give you a great return as a player like that getting on that earlier will easily so 400% minimum over time, which is still pretty good and all the while most of your capital is earning a more guarantied return and is not losing its value.
@Martyn-B , thanks mate, that's very useful to know as a potential guideline for an exit plan if he does go into Messi and Ronaldo. I feel bad for saying 'no' to him, I mean its his own cash! Just would rather he weigh in any potential drawbacks for both (age aside), and when to time an exit
@Chris-C , fantastic mate thank you for your thoughts on that. I completely agree with having TAA as a strong dividend earner for a long period of time. Lets hope he never moves into midfield! Hes had a crazy rise today too!
With Haaland and Mbappe its weird. When I asked my friend who he would first like to buy, without sharing index mechanics with him, he said Mbappe, which isnt a surprise. I agree I cannot see him in the Prem, and his PB stats surely can only go up depending on Neymars situation. Young player, next best in the world, PSG and Real in the future, France, etc. I completely agree with your Haalabd view too, future MB guy with Zlatan-like interviews, and forever Utd links (ala Gaitan, Sneijder, etc).
For Messi and Ronaldo, major injury aside it wi always be that magic question of divs vs cap dep. If my friend goes with them Il be happy for him but dont want to fearmonger him. Just need him to understand their not-too-distant future pitfalls.