How do you all value your port?



  • Good morning .
    Been thinking long and hard on this . Do we value our port as FI on the market buy price or do we value our port on the IS price . Or somewhere in between . It’s very easy to boast huge profits by assuming if we sold up tomorrow we would achieve the market sell price . I hold 50 players and would probably only get market sell price on 2 or 3 in the short term . On average I think I would achieve around 10% less if I was to sell up over say a week . Add the 2% commission and I would be around 12% less in profit than FI tell me. I think this may be less once we can place sell orders in the system and may nearly half the figure to around 5% plus 2% comm so about 7% .
    How do other traders value their port?
    As I say it’s easy to boast huge ROI but it’s not profit until we sell . Your thoughts be much appreciated . Cheers



  • Is like to think I could sell anyone within 2-3 years on performance or transfer news.
    People are worried after a couple of weeks!



  • I expect I'd be able to market sell 90% of my port over a 3 month period during the season when all the leagues are back on. So in that respect it's similar to a 90 day notice account. In those 90 days I would probably get enough from divs to counter the loss in value I'd have to accept on the 10% that wouldn't market sell. So I am still using my overall port value as a yardstick.



  • I think similarly to the other 2. Unless you need money out in a hurry you'll be able to market sell. U only have to read westys market sales thread. There were a couple of comments on there recently of sales that have gone through that were listed around mid March. So they've been in the queue over 2 months. Those ppl probably thought they'd never market sell then one day you check your port and theres a load of cash in your balance. Patience is key



  • @Tom77 said in How do you all value your port?:

    Is like to think I could sell anyone within 2-3 years on performance or transfer news.
    People are worried after a couple of weeks!

    It’s not a worry Tom . I’m happy with my holds who are nearly all solid PB holds . I refresh a couple here and there but am basically happy and expect returns on most . I only have 3 players under a pound and one under 50p in a 54 player portfolio .
    But players under 50p for example I doubt many if any will achieve a market sell price . Higher value players yes over time I’m sure most at some point you could achieve market sell . I worry that the bottom end of the market could suffer badly with little liquidity and falling prices .
    My point is really if you have a 1000 shares in a player at 40p and the best offer is 20p and sales are going through at 20 to 25p how can you value the player at £400 . Realistically he is £250 at the very best . I’m gonna value my port at 12% less than market sell price on the future and if I achieve better brilliant . Sooner air on the conservative valuation .



  • @MickTurbo said in How do you all value your port?:

    I think similarly to the other 2. Unless you need money out in a hurry you'll be able to market sell. U only have to read westys market sales thread. There were a couple of comments on there recently of sales that have gone through that were listed around mid March. So they've been in the queue over 2 months. Those ppl probably thought they'd never market sell then one day you check your port and theres a load of cash in your balance. Patience is key

    Hi Mick . I suppose it doesn’t matter how you value it as long as you stick to the same formula throughout your FI journey . I agree with you at the top end of the market eventually you would be able to market sell most of them . But on the flip side most at the bottom end you will never achieve anything like market price on 95% of them . So I don’t want them overvalued in my ROI .
    It’s a mental thing but I prefer to know my port value in real term not a best scenario term .
    In spread betting you value your trades on a mid point and once we have full order books this may be the best option .



  • @Spot-the-value. I agree with Tom and mick... However, I want to value my port at its current value not what I could sell for in 2-3 years. I'd rather the port total was done on the highest bid for the number of shares you own - 2% commission. For me currently that's probably about 50% of what it currently shows.... But if that's what I'd get if I cashed in today, then that is what it's worth and I'd still know I can get more if I hold... Maybe tomorrow... Maybe a week... Maybe 3 years...but the value today is what it is.

    For instance... I have 3000 advincula shares calculated in my port as 24p a share! Reality is I can sell 8 of them for 13p and 2992 for 0

    So TODAY... Current port value he should be £1.02 (1.04-0.02 commish) not £198. Quite a big difference...



  • 50% is silly cos 75% of my port is in Bruno & jota who I can sell close to full value... But that's the thing... I have no idea without arduously going through every player to see the depth on sell queue (which you can't anyway... You only see if there is less than 300...if more you don't know how many or at what price)



  • @Vespasian32 The last example you gave us is the point I’m making . The figure by basing it on market price is totally false. It’s unlikely you will achieve the market price in the short term or maybe ever so how can it be valued at full market price as a representation of your ROI.



  • I value my port at market sell minus 2% commission. I was a little worried after the matching system came in, but I've put a few players up for market sell to streamline my port a bit and they are selling at the same rate as normal. So as said above, I think I would get rid of most of it at market rates over a month or two if I really needed to.

    Then again I don't think I've got any true duds, even my 30p players will probably get attention at some point.



  • @Vespasian32 said in How do you all value your port?:

    50% is silly cos 75% of my port is in Bruno & jota who I can sell close to full value... But that's the thing... I have no idea without arduously going through every player to see the depth on sell queue (which you can't anyway... You only see if there is less than 300...if more you don't know how many or at what price)

    I think once we get full order books and NASDAQ we will be able to see the depth of market and how much is bid at each buy and sell price . We can then far more accurately value our port .
    If I bought 100 Ighalo today at £1 he is immediately valued at £160 in port and in my ROI .
    We all know he isn’t worth £1.60 and I would be highly unlikely to ever get £1.60 .



  • @kristiang85 none of us believe we have duds and don’t find that out until we try and sell them .
    But like you I have very few players in the bargain basement area .



  • @Spot-the-value. Yeh it's mad... Doesnt promote gbling responsibly in my view, showing punters false profit that they can't have. If people are paying £1 for ighalo that's what he's worth today.. Then if he stays at utd and people are paying £2...thats what he's worth in a week... You get the rise once the players worth it instead of always hoping they reach a value you can sell for.



  • @Vespasian32 100% agree. In the best case scenario our port is worth 2% less . In the worst case could be around 20% on many ports . I think it’s important to bare this in mind as it has been highlighted far more with the introduction of the ME . I think as more people become familiar with the new system everyone will be expecting some sort of discount even on top end players and this will become the norm . Although with 2% comm on buys coming I suppose many at top end will just pay market price as unless bid excepted is less than 2% under market price it’s easier to buy instantly . I’m going to value my port at 12% under market sell price and at least know this is a much truer reflection of my port value.



  • @Spot-the-value. said in How do you all value your port?:

    @kristiang85 none of us believe we have duds and don’t find that out until we try and sell them .
    But like you I have very few players in the bargain basement area .

    I have loads of bargain players. But all are pretty young and have potential. The ones that have sold are those in Germany, probably because they are getting games. Once other leagues start up then any player, as long as they are on a team sheet somewhere, should be selling at market rate eventually.

    If you need cash quickly then it's not great, granted. But the idea that your portfolio has lost 10-15% overnight is hyperbole.



  • @Spot-the-value. I think some people's portfolios will have lost more than 15%. Some people will be trading down the lower end of the market will have there 40p player having very bids about 13p. Not saying it's not there fault before I get lynched but it's the truth.



  • @Vespasian32 said in How do you all value your port?:

    @Spot-the-value. Yeh it's mad... Doesnt promote gbling responsibly in my view, showing punters false profit that they can't have. If people are paying £1 for ighalo that's what he's worth today.. Then if he stays at utd and people are paying £2...thats what he's worth in a week... You get the rise once the players worth it instead of always hoping they reach a value you can sell for.

    Agree entirely. Bizarrely because people were unlisting their shares in Ighalo his market price was rising as his real worth was dropping. I know this is an extreme example, but things like this can undermine confidence in the platform.



  • It’s difficult - I think one issue is the current one sided order books which favour buyers at the moment. Another is that large portions of the index have been overvalued. The combination of the two (and the lack of football) does certainly reduce liquidity so I completely get your point about valuing the shares in your port. Another point to note is that the ME is still a novelty to traders and psychologically many are reluctant to pay full price, especially at the lower end, while they search for bargains. I’ve seen this attitude quickly change at the higher end when a player is suddenly in demand (Havertz) and I have myself cancelled bids on Oscar Rodriguez in order to pay market price when he started to rise so hopefully this sentiment eventually reaches the lower end.

    My hope is that the introduction of the fully functional NASDAQ OB and the return of football will improve this situation and increase liquidity at the lower end, making it easier to value your port.

    For me I see this as a 3 year bet and I’m confident I could exit any trade in that period so rightly or wrongly I still value my port at MS less commission. At the minute it’s like a 3 year ISA with an early withdrawl fee!



  • @kristiang85 I don’t need cash I’m here for the long term and I like my portfolio .
    If I didn’t like my portfolio or parts of it would be easier than ever to get money out and this will be even truer when sell orders become available.
    But I personally am not prepared to value my port at the best case scenario for my ROI.
    Even if I did this would be 2% less after commission .
    As for saying is my port worth 10 to 15% less after ME . No it’s prob worth around 5% less in my opinion but that is tempered by the fact it’s easier to adjust holdings with the greater liquidity of the platform . This will get even better with sell orders . I’m very happy with what’s happening at FI and still see plenty of opportunities for future growth .
    Can’t wait for Nasdaq and fully fledged order books .
    Must resist the temptation we will all have to over trade especially the more compulsive amongst us.
    But I think the future is bright and I’m looking forward to the journey ahead .



  • @Spot-the-value. Yeah, for my 'finances' I value at 78% anyway, but for my progress I still value at 98%. As long as you keep a consistent valuation, then you can track your progress, which is the main thing rather than today's value (unless you're intending to sell up).

    I'm personally not getting involved with the ME, or at least not until the full system is up and running. I make long term buys and stick with them, even when on a bad run. It's worked out well for me. I have got 176 players though, mainly from mass buying during the COVID crash, so I'm streamlining now, but doing it all at market price as I don't really need the cash urgently.


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