Can trading the ME spread be viable strategy?



  • With the new Matching Engine (ME) offerings bids down to 60% of Market buy price I thought it might be worth experimenting with what was possible within these boundaries, effectively trading the IS price, whilst the market buy price remained stable. Buy low, sell high is the traders motto, so trading just between 60 -100% of the market price but just how feasible is it?

    The most in demand players tend to have the greatest liquidity, so whilst the volume traded is attractive in terms of potential opportunities they tend to be higher priced, so the narrow margins & high relative commission tend to mean quick trades aren't really economically viable, great for getting a small discount when building long term holds, not so much for quick flips.

    So lower priced, less traded players (probably <60p) seem potentially best suited however if sentiment or demand should dry up for any particular player then you may well be left holding them, as FI no longer seem prepared to offer that "exit of last resort" IS option so you are left entirely dependent on other traders willingness to offer buy orders, so best to trade players that you are comfortable holding longer term, should that become necessary. This is why I avoid players in semi retirement like Rooney or Zlatan, as although still generating MB interest they will be worth nothing when they finally finish & that could easily be any day now.

    Controversial &/or outspoken players players do however provide opportunity I had a few low ball bids accepted on both Fabregas 15p & Deeney 33-40p whilst trialing ME, only for them to win MB in the next few days after purchase, which meant everyone noticed & they increased in price turning 15p into 27p & 33-40p into 52p (both best IS prices). Whilst a great % return the numbers available were small, so hardly life changing & frustrating that although the strategy succeeded it was too early to have built a decent position.

    Exploiting market depth can prove profitable, now IS only depends on other traders buy orders it can be volatile & can fluctuate wildly, as was highlighted on the Igahlo thread where 93p to 150p was possible within a couple of hours, which may reduce over time as traders build confidence & commit more funds, but also provides short term opportunities. I tried to top up a long term hold on the cheap as I noticed there were no buy orders/IS price at all, buying Adama Soumaoro at my 15p bid price (against Market price of 33p) but then matches dried up, so checking why, I noticed that whilst the displayed IS has ticked up to 17p there was a buy order for 31p within it so I flipped a small number for an incredible 100% ROI in less than 24 hours.

    In conclusion I think whilst potentially highly profitable & satisfying the challenge is both time consuming & can often tie up significant cash resources in unfulfilled bids for relatively little success, so like most good ideas it works on a small scale but struggles to be scaled up & is likely to become more difficult as the market matures over time & the depth of IS becomes more stable. It can however be entertaining & provides a great way to learn more about how the ME functions.



  • I have surprised myself with some trades on players I wouldn't be buying at market price... picked up a player at 9p, nearly sold all at market price 29p- I really can't understand it as now i look at my port and really struggle to workout who will be sellable for profit, who has any chance of returning the bet over dividends etc (can only see a rise coming now to balance this out).

    I think a lot of the market is ignorant to how it now works, unfortunately it will lead to people getting burnt more often, but there are even more ways to make money now. This is a messy phase, quicker it gets done the better.



  • @Westy said in Can trading the ME spread be viable strategy?:

    This is a messy phase, quicker it gets done the better.

    I agree & until full order books are here, allowing sell as well as buy orders, the market is likely to be nervous & volatile but that throws up opportunities as well as pitfalls, as you say. It never fails to astound me how many clearly don't understand how the basics, like buying & selling work, when 99p Ighalo buy offers were being snapped up as fast as they were posted there was plenty of ticker buys going through at full price of 160p+!!



  • @NewUser159387 said in Can trading the ME spread be viable strategy?:

    Exploiting market depth can prove profitable, now IS only depends on other traders buy orders it can be volatile & can fluctuate wildly, as was highlighted on the Igahlo thread where 93p to 150p was possible within a couple of hours, which may reduce over time as traders build confidence & commit more funds, but also provides short term opportunities. I tried to top up a long term hold on the cheap as I noticed there were no buy orders/IS price at all, buying Adama Soumaoro at my 15p bid price (against Market price of 33p) but then matches dried up, so checking why, I noticed that whilst the displayed IS has ticked up to 17p there was a buy order for 31p within it so I flipped a small number for an incredible 100% ROI in less than 24 hours.

    On the 2nd part regarding adama soumaoro.....How do you know/determine what buy and sell orders there are? And the prices of these?



  • @Abaalan said in Can trading the ME spread be viable strategy?:

    How do you know/determine what buy and sell orders there are? And the prices of these?

    You get far more visibility if you own the player already; you can click the IS button & it states "shares available for IS" you can then adjust the quantity to show the availability at which prices. Example Coutinho was currently 295 - 318 but you can sell 1 future for 306p & 300 for 295p & everything in between those limits, which exactly mirrors what buyers order are currently available. So to be top of the buyers order you would need to bid 307 or higher, even though the sell price shows as 295p (which is the average best price for 300 max).

    Obviously it helps to own the player initially but simply buy at least 1 future either at MS price or at a high enough Buy order price to guarantee fulfillment & you can then explore the pricing possibilities for only a minimal outlay, depending on the players price. Obviously any buy order is simply an offer to purchase & will require a willing seller to accept to complete the transaction but experimenting with small numbers will build your knowledge & confidence before committing to more serious volumes. At the bottom end of the market there may not even be 300 buy orders available so prices are even more volatile.



  • If you can see the buy order prices for players you own its unfair. Either everyone should get to see the prices or the glitch should be removed and no one should be able to see.



  • I think trading the spreads is the safest and easiest way to make money now. We saw in the release yesterday there are current £20m of bids in play... That's £20m investment which will have zero affect on port prices. I no longer see much value in holding lots of money in a portfolio, compared to cash balances and seizing opportunities.



  • @NewUser607503 said in Can trading the ME spread be viable strategy?:

    If you can see the buy order prices for players you own its unfair. Either everyone should get to see the prices or the glitch should be removed and no one should be able to see.

    How would you decide whether the price was acceptable to sell or not (by accepting an offer)? Basically you want sellers to accept blind offers?

    I can be willing to buy (at say <65p), hold or sell (at say 85p+) the same player simultaneously, how would that be possible under your proposal if I was unaware or prevented from viewing the available prices?



  • @Vespasian32
    Fully agree with this. My aim is to get down to a portfolio nucleus so to speak of approx 10 regular dividend winners who I’d be prepared to hold for 3 years, albeit with an exit point in mind. Then hold a cash balance to regularly, patiently, trade in and out of the spread. I’ve been using the ME to top up these dividend players for now. I see this as a strong risk / reward profile but could be wrong 🤷‍♂️



  • @wolves86 exactly what I am doing. I have a few non pb guys who I bought for transfer that I'm now stuck on until they transfer. I'll keep Bruno, Jota and a few other solid pb guys till I hit my exit price... Then I'll just rinse the spreads going forward. I think itl bring back and accentuate the match day trading... As soon as someone goes off or has a poor game youl get a good bargain... Flog them in the build up as the spread tightens.



  • @Vespasian32 said in Can trading the ME spread be viable strategy?:

    @wolves86 exactly what I am doing. I have a few non pb guys who I bought for transfer that I'm now stuck on until they transfer. I'll keep Bruno, Jota and a few other solid pb guys till I hit my exit price... Then I'll just rinse the spreads going forward. I think itl bring back and accentuate the match day trading... As soon as someone goes off or has a poor game youl get a good bargain... Flog them in the build up as the spread tightens.

    👍🏻 And no need to have £40k plus tied up possibly for a long time without access.


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