Reality and Hard Truth



  • @King-Fergus it's just that they changed the rules nothing else.



  • @SteveP Are you a Forest fan, in the play off hunt and with a chance, yes.

    We all have our own strategies and insight but I cannot see why Lolley is even 79p. He's 27, a very good Championship player but questionable whether he could make the step up now in terms of a transfer to a club already there. If he did it would be bottom six material I suspect.

    At the moment I could buy James Ward Prowse for less than Lolley through ME, 25 years old, established, takes set pieces (I don't hold).

    There is a very good reason why no one is bidding for him in my view but that would probably change if Forest get promoted although probably at half of his buy price now.



  • @SteveP said in Reality and Hard Truth:

    @Timothee-Atouba yes... and having speculated that upon possible promotion his value would be higher I am not rushing to sell before that ‘bet’ yet.

    Anyway, hopefully all of this chat will be null and void soon. Wasn’t there talk of external market makers??

    Market makers won’t buy what they won’t be able to sell though.



  • @Harford-is-God coincidentally I’m actually a Saints fan and agree that JWP is much better value! Also agree that Lolley isn’t worth 79p! But he was IPO’d at 78p or thereabouts so at the time was a risk free bet as players couldn’t drop below their IPO price.

    I’m not negative about FI. I love it. Been on a year and up £30k.m so I can suck up this ‘loss’. Just adding my voice to the crowd that this change to the game is far more serious than a tweak to the PB matrix or a players position



  • @Harford-is-God said in Reality and Hard Truth:

    We all have our own strategies and insight but I cannot see why Lolley is even 79p.

    He's actually a great example which illustrates the perceived betrayal of FI withdrawing IS; FI consistently offered IS as a safety net on "worthless players" to create a false market price, which then enabled them to IPO players like Lolley at higher prices (generating higher commission revenue in the process).

    Lolley was IPO'd at 70p, his MS price wasn't going to drop below this level, FI offered IS of say 60p, so buyers were effectively only buying him at a 10p risk premium, as in the worst case scenario they could dump him via IS at 60p even if they couldn't market sell at 70p+. FI have now removed IS, having already pocketed the 70p/each future sold, so he can't even generate the current minimum 40p buyer generated IS price & holders are left stranded.

    It must be fairly clear that buying ANY player whilst risking a 10p loss against risking a 30p or possibly 70p loss have significantly different risk profiles. Which is why holders are complaining their bet has been significantly changed to their detriment & FI's advantage, which I believe is a fairly accurate portrayal. Lolley would never have had any buyers (who are now stranded holders) at 70p+ unless FI had been offering IS IMHO, which is why I believe they have a responsibility to provide those holders a fair exit price. Going forward players should only trade at the price they are worth, established via OB's, but those bought under the "false market" conditions created by FI should still be honoured with an exit option, FI have already a 70p credit on their balance sheet/bank account for each Lolley they sold.



  • @Geronimo159387 Didn't realise the IPO price and agree with your sentiments, was making the general point on his value without knowing the history.

    Inadvertently I've provided a great case for the cash out, something I agree with anyway given the nature of the FI sell.



  • @King-Fergus

    Sorry, but you’re wrong on this particular point.

    There are 30-40p players, who have already won PB this season and are currently playing in the Bundesliga, sat with no IS or only a derisory IS price.

    People are right to feel aggrieved, when:

    (a) prices are meant to be linked to performance and dividend potential;
    (b) FI clearly fundamentally changed the terms of people’s bets and gave them no option to leave whilst retaining their profits;
    (c) FI said IS would always be around and it isn’t; and;
    (d) they said (and subsequently repeated) that bids would be limited to 60% of buy price and they’re not - now we’re told it’s 40% and that is incorrect in some cases too!

    You’re trying to defend in the indefensible.

    They are literally making it up as they go.

    No doubt their knee jerk reaction will be a deposit bonus or promise of a future dividend increase, but they really should be thinking through the impacts of their changes before making them.

    Luckily I had a diverse portfolio so the FI inflicted damage to me is limited, but I feel for others who were more trusting of FI.



  • @ocs123

    Do you really think I’m wrong in saying that once football is in full flow that we will see most players have IS?

    Some truly bad players and redundant players won’t.

    Go read what I said again as you seem to have missed my point.



  • @King-Fergus you are right, the return of football will definitely help. I suspect it may not be much comfort to those feeling cheated and doesn't change the arguments, but I do believe things will look better when we have a full football schedule.



  • I am a trader who has mainly dealt in the bottom end of the market making significant % gains from trading at the lower end.

    Ignoring for the moment the rights and wrongs of FI withdrawing their own backed IS function.

    For me we are once again seeing user momentum pushing back into the higher end of the market. Exactly the same as we saw with the share split and the dividend changes. The value of a player is no different today as it was pre ME. The only difference is the fear of not being able to get out of a trade. 3 years is a hell of a long time in football and if we a expect FI to continue to grow then there will be an inevitable stage where the lower end looks value again.

    I am currently picking up IPD players at anywhere from 40-60% of their market value. Not in huge quantities I must say buy it's ticking me over.

    I tried staring up a thread previously for buyers to name their purchase price but unfortunately it didn't pick up traction.

    If you believe the bottom end players' IS prices are too low why not try selling a couple of your higher end players at market value and offer bids at the lower end. This is what I am currently doing.

    Once again I am not picking sides on the right or wrong of FI and the change of terms. Just trying to spot an opportunity in the market.



  • The main surprise for me is that Blackwolf wishes to be a happier and more positive person.

    For me he already comes across as having those qualities.

    I guess we all wear masks to a degree.



  • @peacebeuponme said in Reality and Hard Truth:

    The main surprise for me is that Blackwolf wishes to be a happier and more positive person.

    For me he already comes across as having those qualities.

    I guess we all wear masks to a degree.

    Thank you. I never realised i came across that way. That was a nice boost

    I suppose we can always aim for more happiness i tend to be quite bipolar and my aim is to eradicate the low points.



  • @Black-wolf I believe there are many ways this can be achieved, without resorting to medication (only mentioned as meds seem to be a cure all in this day and age, and who benefits from that?).

    I don't want to preach, but I am thinking along the lines of positive lifestyle changes, and positive relationships.

    There is plenty that can be googled on the subject, and I will tie this to trading, for happier traders will make decisions less based on fear, which is our enemy.



  • @peacebeuponme im not depressed or anything like that dont worry, i just want to improve my outlook on life and ignore all the negativity on the news and on social media. Everything and everyone seems to want to put put people down and im just fed up of it all.

    This forum was always an escape from all the shit but its been headed the same way recently but im putting it down to COVID for now and hopefully it will get back to football and trading discussions soon enough

    While we are on the subject, for anyone that is needing that lift you speak about i highly recommend Kevin Harts audio book The Decision. Its absolutely brilliant



  • The solution is both easy and hard.

    Dont watch news and get off facebook etc. You don't need them, and you'd be surprised how they distort your thinking.

    All the news did for me was make me depressed. i decided I didn't like being depressed over things i could do nothing about, so i stopped watching it.

    Perhaps that makes me an I'm alright jack asshole but I don't care.



  • @peacebeuponme the news is already gone and this is now my only form of social media of any kind. I think the news while i was furloughed was a major issue though



  • @Black-wolf said in Reality and Hard Truth:

    @peacebeuponme im not depressed or anything like that dont worry, i just want to improve my outlook on life and ignore all the negativity on the news and on social media. Everything and everyone seems to want to put put people down and im just fed up of it all.

    This forum was always an escape from all the shit but its been headed the same way recently but im putting it down to COVID for now and hopefully it will get back to football and trading discussions soon enough

    I made the same changes back in January 2019 when I was finding the negativity and complete lack of respect for other human beings too much. From that date I deleted all my accounts on social media and removed myself (Facebook, Twitter, etc) and I also don’t bother with news channels; especially the vile BBC. You should give it a go as it’s worth it and you soon realise that you don’t actually need social media and breath more freely without the nonsense and chaos it causes.



  • Haha. I can well imagine. Watching unrelenting coverage of corona virus is going to drive people nuts. You have made a good decision.

    Shame that Kevin Hart book isn't on Spotify.



  • @Erased-Citizen already done exactly that. The wife has been told the news isnt to be on while im in the house.



  • @peacebeuponme its an audible exclusive i think, ive listened to it 4 times in the last couple of weeks


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