Is nobody on here concerned?

  • Reply not aimed at anyone however

    Firstly (1) was abit of satire at the fact on how people get touchy about media players
    (2) thanks for the original 2 down votes which means it’s sad that I’m not a fisherman because the bite I got would of won any compatition
    (3) holding short term MAYNOT be a problem if you already have CR7
    (4) if you are new and thinking about buying please let me inform you based on FI history if there’s any negativity for example Real go out the CL he gets injured goes to China or was to join a lesser club a panic sell would make anything upto a 70p spread with 2% sell so in thiory 90p to sell him
    (5) I agree short term they could win CL or Portugal May win the World Cup but please take note historically like we seen with Man City SPURS Barca and So on high profile exits means drop in value
    (6) like I’ve already pointed out 12 months back he was £2 and he’s had more top ups than a electric card meter in a cannabis factory!!! To get to where he is now if everyone was to sell at once on a shock announcement of China for example there would only be instant sell available
    (7) the follow up threads to are we worried was a simple question if I remember where is there value and someone said CR7!!! I’m advising in MY VIEW the risk outweighs any value unless you already hold CR7 I’m not saying he’s a bad buy I’m saying he’s probably a HIGH RISK BUY akin to buying a flat next to Chinobyl reactor!!! Not many games left in season and a premium for a panic sell is 90p so the Big Twitter guys who paid £2 it’s no risk for a newbie buying 100 has the potential to compleatly WIPE OUT your portfolio!!
    (8) PC Sanchez Zlatan all proof media players are not bullet proof and the 3 above all had huge spreads and huge drops
    (9) I put my hands up I missed the media boat that’s set sale and I take my hat off to the big boys that got in fast at £2 but promoting him at £9 at end of season is akin to paying 450% more for a item in January sales after Christmas which newbies should take note... I’ve held media players Salah and Pogba in past and sold wrong time so I’m not 100% against media players however at prices they are now it benifits original holders and don’t encourage new investment
    (10) this time of year media player investment comes from the 5th May meet most likely for long periods of media buzz which inturn points out allot of the money’s from big traders not newbies to buy to add to original stock the ave buy price comes down newbies have to pay going rate
    (11) like I say let’s debate however this is what I want to add to this friendly debate

    Thanks for reading my views I’m not saying I’m right or wrong but this is my opinion!!!!

  • @NewUser59855 said in Is nobody on here concerned?:

    @Mazza-magic I don't think Ronaldo is cheap at around £9. Is Ronaldo really going to collect £9 worth of dividends per future back over the course of his career, so that you can even breakeven? He is 33 and probably has 3 years left in him. Like Ibrahimovic he will be crashing down to around 50p and I hope you cash in whilst he is still at his top price.

    Ooooh Contraversial ..... if you are valuing players on career dividend potential then poor old Stevie Macs portfolio is probably worth on average about 7p a player.

  • @SMacFI said in Is nobody on here concerned?:

    @BL__FI said in Is nobody on here concerned?:

    @NewUser59855 (and @Chicken-Badge since you seem to be having one of those days) - That's not a good way to calculate value. I don't think there's an investment in the world where you would expect 100% return through dividends. Unless you're silly enough not to sell at all before he retires, you will get money back from selling too. If you buy at 8.92, he wins 18p dividends next week, his price rises to 9.20 and you sell to market you've made a very healthy profit. Personally I wouldn't be buying him right now either but that is a completely different point to the one you make and the post from CB, which is by the way facile and not based on anything I've ever seen anyone say anywhere. But for the sake of it I'll deconstruct it:

    1. It's fine to "slag off" media players - but you complain that MB should be removed from the index and anyone who buys a player at over 5.00 "needs their head checked" or similar, even though it's clearly a perfectly efficient way to make money and what the index was originally based on.

    2. Please do! But do it with accurate information, not "I didn't make money that way" or "other players are cheaper". Irrelevant to the point you claim to make.

    3. It's not about being cheap, it's about offering value. Whether he does or not is a reasonable argument to have but you're not doing that, you're ranting.

    4. Now we're getting somewhere close to a reasonable point, but again, it's perfectly possible to be cheap in both cases because prices are relative to returns and the market.

    5. No one has said that. If he goes to China of course his price will go off a cliff. If he's continually linked to United again this summer his price will rise. That's the gamble we all take. And I'm not getting into a ridiculous discussion about whether dividends are important to price movements again (hint: they are).

    6. Talk away, but try and have some basis for your arguments.

    7. No he didn't, he questioned whether Ronaldo offers value, which is a very legitimate question. In my view he did so in a misguided way, as I've explained.

    8. Debate sounds good. Do you have anything useful to add to one?

    I think this debate will be best answered after the WC which will answer the debate for itself, i dont think anyone is saying dont buy MB players, what was said is if you dare challenge anyone about them all hell breaks lose, and the justifications of there prices

    If you haven't twigged yet its a public forum. Publicly stating a player is over-valued could potentially cost owners money. MB players are the most owned players in the game so of course their owners will justify their price and why they should be bought.

    Seriously ..... what did you think was going to happen ?

  • @Mr-Matt all I done was sold some of the profit from kenedy and brought 5 futures on him as you say I think his got his the best footballer ever and I see a small profit in him and when I think the time is right he will go and I will invest the profit some where else! I can see him go up to £10.50

  • @NewUser126583 If it were me entering my position on him now for the first time, this is how I'd play it.

    1. I'd go in with the mindset for a short term flip on the current drop in price as he'll boost for the CL and when the bonus funds fly in from or before 5th may meet up .

    2. If you time it well, I'd sell if Real look to be going out and buy back in on the dip. If you miss it you have the safety net for the wc,

    3. I'd hold / buy back in for wc and sell at some point safely before portugal are knocked out for example if they win their group sell when the goings good. Any dividends you pick up in this time class as a bonus.

    4. I'd then wait for the expected big drop after wc and buy back in with the mindset as a dividend hold for next season.

    I believe the above strategy would give me the best probability of a decent return.

  • @Mazza-magic yep timing is everything just watch for the 2 predictable drops - cl exit, wc exit, end of season he may stagnate if not getting the media top 3 positions.

    with playing with smaller funds flipping is the best way to make fastest profits and treat dividends as a nice bonus.

  • Personally I don't like the idea of flipping high cost players. It takes a huge swing in price for it to be worth it due to the comission. I know most people will completly get this already so not trying to patronise anyone but I know alot of new users come on this forum so thought the below example might be of use to some.

    If you had £100 to spend and you bought a player for £10 you would have 10 shares (GCSE maths is useful!) For you to be able to sell these, without a loss, the price would need to go up by 20p (divide the cost price of a share by .98 to work this out quickly) This also relys on you selling to market which, while do-able, can take time and you can be at risk of the price dropping as you wait.

    If you put that £100 into a £1 player you would get 100 shares. You only need a 2p rise to break even.

    The spread is also much larger on these £10 players as the average spread is around 3% so if you want to exit a trade quickly, as you would in most flip scenarios, then you need to factor in the extra 3% meaning a 5% rise is needed for you to break even.

    So you would need the £10 player to rise by 52p to be able to guarantee your money back. The £1 would only need to rise by 5p.

    You are much more likely to get big rises in high cost players and they are much more likely to win dividends which also complicates the maths (I didn't get the 'A' level in maths) so it's not quite as obvious as the above example makes it look to just buy the cheap players but for my personal stratagy it has lead me to think that if I am paying a premium then I want to hold for as long as possible so all the high price players I own are at the younger end of the market (Salah, Kane, Neymar) and I plan to hold for the whole 3 years (plans can change so I would sell Salah or Kane before a transfer abroad).

    If I am looking to flip I would much rather be in the lower end of the market as I see this as much lower risk and higher reward.

    Don't really mind if everyone sells them as eventually they will buy back as they win dividends regularly and dividends do drive the market more consistently than any other factor. Even if they dropped £3 I'd still make better money on dividends in the 3 years than if I kept the money in a bank and have more fun that looking at a bank statement.

  • Some mid to high-price players starting to rise again now - e.g. Griezmann, Pog, Jesus, Isco, Asensio, Thiago, Fekir, James, SMS, Mane, Firmino

  • @Ozzlebert Its better to think of it as % which is more of a true measure

    20p on 10 £10 players and 2p on a 100 £1 players is 2% the same.

    So of you sell a £10 player for £11 and a £1 player for £1.10 you still made a 10% ROI either way.

    I do understand your point and flipping high priced players is something we should only do if we are confident in a decent rise. Ronaldo and Salah both seen 60p plus rises in the matter of 24-48 hours in the last week so its possible

  • @TradingJournal I upvoted that as soon as I read what you wrote about %. I hate when ppl fixate on amount of pence as it's the percentage that's the true indication of value like u say. For example, I've just sold my Diego Reyes at 9p profit, doesnt seem like much but it worked out at just over 14% return, which if u get for all your trades you'd be doing excellent.

  • @TradingJournal completely agree and this is how I look at all my trades. My post above was actually trying to highlight this!

    I have just seen a few posts above with people saying they they plan on selling high and buying back low and I wanted to show newer users that you need big swings in price with the big boys to make this work. I believe it's only really worth trying this approach if you can see a 10% increase or decrease on the horizon. For £10 players that's £1 which as you showed does happen so not impossible.

    @John-Renwick again completly agree. 9p on Reyes at 60p is the same as a £1.64 rise in Neymar at his current price (£11.75). Good trading and a perfect example of what I was talking about with the lower cost flips.

    I'm not trying to stop people buying the high price players just showing my thoughts on why I believe them to offer better value as long term holds and why prefer to try and flip lower cost players.

  • @Ozzlebert - There are some very valid points here.

    Personally, percentages work for me in terms of profitability.

    However, to move a £10 player up 5%, (50p) - 5000 shares need to be bought...
    To move a £1 player up 5% (5p) - only 500 shares need to be bought.

  • @Jay-Frazz I was going to put this in my post but feared it was already a bit of a essay so decided not to put it in, glad you added it.

  • @Ozzlebert

    All fair points and good reasons to invest in low priced players.

    The one thing I would say with low priced players is that you're almost entirely dependent on share price increases to deliver profit. Most low priced players will never win a MB and the probability of winning a PB with any single low-priced player is extremely low.

    The top priced players offer less percentage potential for share price growth - i.e. the big boys can't realistically double in value in say 2 or 3 months (which a low priced player could, if you've bought the right one). But they offer a steady MB income, generally better PB prospects and of course require less time to research and manage them.

  • Maybe Noir could find the ROI for say one or one hundred futures in Ronaldo or Messi or any of the big five or six since Xmas or the start of the year??

    Then compare it with someone like a David Neres or Hirving Lozano who have doubled in value since then???

    My portfolio is balanced between Top and lower range players (with some in the middle) but I hardly make anything through PB.... Be good to know IF people are making good levels of returns (ie 20-40%+) based on simply buying £1 players or based on flipping PB targets?

  • @dannypea

    1 share in

    Salah since 1st Jan has made £1.26 in dividends and approx £4-5 in growth (was £4.12 19/01/18)

    Ronaldo £1.17 in dividends and approx £3.5-£4 in growth (was £5.61 23/01/18)

    Paul pogba £0.93 in dividends and approx £2.5 growth
    (Was £4.05 23/01/18)

    Salah - 127-150% ROI
    Ronaldo - 83-92% ROI
    Pogba - 85% ROI

    Not bad in less than 4 months. Would that be sustainable going forwards who knows.

  • @Noirx4 legend!!!! thank you!!!

    so we are looking very much similar ROI to those that IPO'd at 50p (real price 75p+ after robots bumping up our actual buy prices) that are now £1.50 or anyone brought for £1 now worth £2??

    I presume there's a few exceptions Milinkovic-Savic for example? But it certainly justifies anyone's spend on those that are returning 50% and higher??

    And also puts pay to anyones concerns that the market is not performing???

    Like you say i'm not sure either on the sustainability of that level of growth but i see no reason as in Y1 & Y2 that Y3 can't grow to those levels because I still don't think the format has peaked yet? Perhaps we'll know a lot more in Jan 2019 because if growth is at the levels it has been then we'll all be better off for it.... if it isn't would that suggest it has peaked already????

  • @dannypea I think growth hasn't peaked yet this World Cup is going help players spike again

  • they'll certainly spike during the WC and I don't expect them to peak for another year or two myself... Which I suppose is my point... No, I'm not concerned about short term falls and I don't really worry about any negative effects of the WC... I think a better judge of how growth on this platform has occurred would be in Jan 2019?

    If we have bigger interest after the WC (which should theoretically happen) we'll all be in a good place!!!

  • @NewUser128630 hi, just curious how things ended up going 5months on?? Hopefully everyone in your portfolio have doubled since :))

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