Portfolio Value vs Real Value



  • not been here for a while but thought I would nip in to see what people are saying as I noticed the HUGE spread on my portfolio which made me question myself the 'real value' of players i owned on the basis i can't actually SELL anyone these days?

    I'm hoping when football is back thriving again (come Oct/Nov perhaps) that this terrible time will all be forgotten but until then... I see no value in selling anything.... although you can still get a bargain when buying!!!

    My only concern is WHY would I buy right now knowing if i did... I would be instantly at a huge loss thanks to spread (and lack of selling options) following any purchase made!!!



  • @ocs123 Mine is similar to @MickTurbo. IS value of portfolio is 8.4% lower than market sell value. I can't remember what sort of percentage FI backed IS would have given but probably something similar?
    You have to remember we have only just started seeing football coming back after a 3 month break. How would your portfolio of fared over the close season? What was the plan with the players you hold, high risk yet high reward i imagine.
    I'm not saying your wrong to be annoyed with the changes but i think if you are patient things will improve.
    The power is in the buyer's hands at the moment. I believe that once sell orders come in, the IS price will become more competitive. Also the return of football and an aggressive marketing campaign by FI should add a lot of depth to the market, which will also increase IS prices. In my opinion.



  • @Maverik I read q lot of this and all I can presume is that I've been extraordinarily lucky with some of the flips I've had recently because they have by and large not been premium players



  • @dannypea That is exactly my point...



  • At the minute, we are living in a house that is half finished. No wonder it looks pretty shit?! 🤣

    Although I often have my doubts about the competency of those in charge, I have zero concerns about the idea and the concept.

    Let's just say that we have put a giant leopard print couch in the sitting room, and it looks horrendous ... it wasn't the smartest idea, but the missus seen it at 60% off and it was a spur of the moment thing ...

    I'm pretty sure when I explain my dislike for the couch and reasons why it isn't really suitable, she will eventually come round to my way of thinking ... she usually does.

    Those looking to leave the platform now are being far too hasty in my opinion. At least wait until you see the finished product and make an informed decision about your future involvement.

    Leave now or once the platform transition is complete, but either way, you will lose money, so why not give the issue time to resolve itself.

    At the moment, it feels like a massive overreaction by some. Like spilling red wine on the carpet and immediately deciding that the house must be sold! 🤣🤷🏼‍♂️



  • @ocs123
    You do what you think is right mate.

    I'm giving it until they've reviewed the survey replies.
    After the money I've made I feel they probably deserve that.

    👍



  • @ocs123 said in Portfolio Value vs Real Value:

    the difference between the portfolio value I'm presented with when I log on and the value I can realistically achieve in the current market.

    The key here is "current market" which is a buyers market & unless your player is Top 200 then most demand is looking at 25%+ discounts. Why? They know any sellers are stuck between a rock & a hard place of a stagnant (or really slow moving) MS queue & very thin buyer generated IS. Whilst I think FI have handled this really badly (looking to use CV as cover to leave holders stranded) & risk permanent reputational damage as many who factored in IS to their trading strategy, feel betrayed & cheated (which is never a great place for loyal customers to be) things can only get better from here.

    There are positive developments on the horizon, full OB's & sell order should allow confidence & liquidity to return, albeit at a lower price level than current MS, & future platform growth which will lead to organic price rises for almost every player in the top 1000, so patience will be the key. Whilst this isn't great for anyone needing an exit today, it shouldn't be too long before sales are returning to something resembling pre-CV, vastly helped by the return of most football, starting tonight.



  • Most of my port is geared up for 2 year holds, impossible to say what its worth.



  • The port value is the same as before, it just requires more skill to get top “blue button” price. Sell when players are in demand- and you will get the full value. But trade lazily (holding through the peaks and trying to sell in the dips) and you will not get your blue button price.
    Everyone always knew that at some point the free meal ticket was gonna stop, and if you still wanted to make the big profits you’d need to trade smarter. Just like in the business world: adapt to survive.
    I’ve said it before: I have no problem with ME Engine change. (Although I do feel for those invested in cheaper players) It has made FI a more financially stable company, able to expand to the next level. If it means more risk to us, so be it. I’ll just reduce risk so that I don’t own more than 10% in any one player. It’s changed for sure, but as far as I’m aware, there aren’t any other betting platforms you can make 50%-100% (without making high risk bets) .



  • My feeling at the moment is that FI possibly underestimated the amount of money needed to provide liquidity throughout the market.
    I have a mix of players from the top end of the market to 15p players so have seen the full effect of the change.
    The issue with only setting up an ME is that many users like myself now have money tied up in bids whereas previously we would have bought at market price. I have listed many players at market price with the thought of using the funds to put in more offers. This helps me in getting players at lower prices but also means I can cancel the offers and have cash ready so lower risk.
    The bigger issue seems to be when they introduce selling offers which can only serve to drive down the market price. Without a large targeted promotion and large amounts of liquidity pumped into the market users could easily see 10-30% wiped off their 'portfolio value depending on how their portfolio us made up.



  • @NewUser731 yes, well put. Have you managed to sell any to market? I've got about 50 players listed, only 1 hot cake sold, (TAA), and I have plenty of other trendy ones on the list but no bites yet.



  • ME not really been with us long enough to really know, but with football starting again and more people going back to work, I'm hoping to see normality return to the market over time.

    I've always managed to market sell in the past and all the reasons to buy are still there and haven't changed. For me, I therefore continue to value my portfolio at it's current market value.

    Also, unless I want to sell, it's irrelevant anyway, as the value is likely to change, so it doesn't really matter which you use and market value is done for you! Doesn't seem worth the effort to try and work it out when you're not looking to sell.



  • @Westy said in Portfolio Value vs Real Value:

    @NewUser731 yes, well put. Have you managed to sell any to market? I've got about 50 players listed, only 1 hot cake sold, (TAA), and I have plenty of other trendy ones on the list but no bites yet.

    In the last week I've market sold Matteo Kovavic, Leo Dubois, Emes Unal, Adrian Embarba, Lionel Messi and Iker Munian, at full price.



  • @kristiang85 ok that gives me some hope



  • @kristiang85 How long did you have Messi in the queue?



  • @Westy said in Portfolio Value vs Real Value:

    Have you managed to sell any to market?

    Whilst still possible it's definitely slower; it's always been my preferred sale method (90%+ of my selling uses it) as I have only resorted to IS in extremis but as generally a long term holder I'm happy to be patient & wait to achieve the better MS price. However to flip the question; How many times have I market bought since ME was introduced? Ans; NONE, all my cash balance is permanently out on ME bids. For the players I really want at generous prices, usually topping IS but for loads more on speculative, large discounts (which a surprisingly large number do get at least partially matched).

    The fact I am regularly picking players up at 30/40/50%+ discounts indicates two things; 1. MS is currently unrealistically high for large parts of the market (so will fall as soon as sell orders/full OB's arrive) & 2. Whilst ever ME bids still get matched patient buyers have ZERO incentive to use market buy, so even if demand fully recovers MS will still be far slower for all but the most in demand players (until sell orders allow a market power shift back towards sellers).

    Whilst I'm positive about the future, I suspect loads of trading strategies will have to permanently change to work within the current & future market dynamics.



  • @MickTurbo yes my port would devalue by about 12% plus commission if I wanted to sell up .
    Bigger problem I see is I could with patience probably have sold 90% of my port at market sell price pre matching engine .
    Now I doubt I could sell much more than 10% at market sell price even with a lot more patience.
    It has very much become a buyers platform .
    But buyers beware as DONT think the blue button price is the true value of a player . It’s certainly not and much closer to the discounted price you buy at . Worrying times in the short term but normally FI come up with a solution . Let’s wait and see.



  • People will get frustrated with bids not being matched and Ms will be easier. Generally I only MS and have shifted a few players recently. Was pleasantly surprised to get rid of werner, was kicking myself with him as I try and sell on the up but knew I had left it too late.



  • @Westy very few have sold at all. I have sold some pogba, asensio and Dumfries of a total of about 120 players. The downward pressure on player prices is already apparent. Given I have held some of the top performers in the last week I have seen very little rise.

    Currently I wonder what any form of promo would so. I can't imagine FI desperately like the idea of people having money in buying offers that they can withdraw at any point. I would have thought it would need to be millions to really get it flowing again. Something I think that can only be provided by a 3rd party.

    If FI were to withdraw all players with no share holders and offer instant sell at 50% of current market price i wonder what the uptake would be. I have player offers in at 30% of market price so I would move that offer into another player and inturn someone else would do the same. Hard to know and I'm not thinking that I have the solutions.



  • @Geronimo159387 said in Portfolio Value vs Real Value:

    @Westy said in Portfolio Value vs Real Value:

    Have you managed to sell any to market?

    Whilst still possible it's definitely slower; it's always been my preferred sale method (90%+ of my selling uses it) as I have only resorted to IS in extremis but as generally a long term holder I'm happy to be patient & wait to achieve the better MS price. However to flip the question; How many times have I market bought since ME was introduced? Ans; NONE, all my cash balance is permanently out on ME bids. For the players I really want at generous prices, usually topping IS but for loads more on speculative, large discounts (which a surprisingly large number do get at least partially matched).

    The fact I am regularly picking players up at 30/40/50%+ discounts indicates two things; 1. MS is currently unrealistically high for large parts of the market (so will fall as soon as sell orders/full OB's arrive) & 2. Whilst ever ME bids still get matched patient buyers have ZERO incentive to use market buy, so even if demand fully recovers MS will still be far slower for all but the most in demand players (until sell orders allow a market power shift back towards sellers).

    Whilst I'm positive about the future, I suspect loads of trading strategies will have to permanently change to work within the current & future market dynamics.

    #1 Is definitely right. Most players are overvalued by the “buy now”. So hopefully FI will launch sell orders together with a dividend increase.
    That should be very smooth, increase morale and confidence and largely offset any paper profit disappearing. IMO it’s a no brainer to introduce the two together.


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