Why is the market so flat?

  • First time I've had a negative portfolio since I started.

  • Many have either wanted or needed to withdraw money since March and are now only just able to do that plus we have sell orders, expansion to new territories, a media review and dividend review on the horizon so a lot of uncertainty and people will want to see what FI’s plans are before spending more money

  • @PMurph Remember that any player drops have only come about because of listing so really it’s only temporary unless the player(s) never warrant buying in the future. Also, obviously the reasons mentioned by @Black-Wolf.

  • Is ME a factor? Seeing a lot of chat that people are only wanting to buy low and others sell high so there's not a lot of money? Any idea when the next stage of OB is?

  • @PMurph They’re aiming for start of next season I believe. I just hope to god they release it simultaneously with a dividend increase to make it nice and smooth and offset the paper profit losses.

  • @PMurph

    Yes ME is definitely a factor. Has reduced market buys hugely outside of few players who’ve flown for obvious reason - rashford, Werner, havertz. People are happy to put bids in and wait for a discount

  • @PMurph

    Many of us are stuck in bets that we can't get out of quickly, which means we can't get in to other bets...

  • FI have unwittingly fashioned a vicious circle of fear & uncertainty; Uncertainty regarding platform direction, MB/PB reviews, withdrawal of IS has both removed an acceptable market exit price for most players & decimated the market depth (so even those willing to accept the price have only limited volume), & the anticipation of future promotion to address these issues. All this has lead to a stand off where those willing to commit more funds are either stuck in bets they can't exit (at least not at an acceptable price) or unwilling to enter bets where they are either likely to be stuck or seriously disadvantaged (like a large MS price drop when sell orders arrive).

    FI clearly acted in their own interested by dumping their promised responsibility to provide IS, saddling buyers with that liability, but that destroyed most market liquidity outside the very top players. They clearly assumed that the return of football would be such a positive influence & confidence boost that the market would self stimulate back into action but that looks unlikely to be widespread, without some further artificial stimulus like a promotion. Sentiment hasn't been helped by paying out incorrect dividends then either reclaiming them or allowing the correct winners to remain unrewarded & whilst not entirely FI's fault the incompetent, unprofessional & unjust approach has further damaged buyer confidence & their reputation.

    The situation will most likely continue until FI act to encourage more buyer demand (continuing with the planned 2% buyer tax on ME bids from July will just make things worse - really should be dropped altogether) to free up the lockjam, net spend bonus, buying incentive or dividend increase promotions will be needed & without some FI action buyers will just continue to sit on their hands or walk away altogether & who could blame them.

  • @Geronimo159387 the 2% on bids should stimulate market buying, which is why I was originally in favour of it, but the issue is that the market buy prices are so inflated above what they should be, making market buying unattractive.

  • Buyers want a bargain, sellers don’t want to sell on cheap = stalemate

  • The 2% commission on buys can't come sooner so people will market buy. Personally I'd be tempted to scrap the ME all together.

  • @Notanyoldnewuser said in Why is the market so flat?:

    the 2% on bids should stimulate market buying, which is why I was originally in favour of it,

    How do you figure that?? As a buyer I now only get 98% of my money's worth, hence I drop my bids by at least 2%+ yet as a seller I face an IS price (ME bids) falling by another 2% when I already thought it was too low. I really can't see how that helps either side of the market, the only beneficiaries are FI pocketing an extra 2% but given they have dropped turnover by far more than 2% even they are worse off in cash terms??

  • @Geronimo159387 yeah I said market buying, ie using the market buy button instead of ME

  • The matching engine isn't a matching engine, its a buying engine. Matching requires two equally able sides. Until it is possible for sellers and buyers to dictate prices, it is not a matching engine.

    Once they introduce the selling side, I think we'll see a tumultuous correction in prices as spreads reach their true market-dictated levels, not the current artificial spreads where sellers are handicapped.

  • @ukph said in Why is the market so flat?:

    The 2% commission on buys can't come sooner so people will market buy. Personally I'd be tempted to scrap the ME all together.

    Buyers simply won't turn to market buy they'll drop their ME bids by 2%+, just increasing the stalemate. ME is the first half of OB's (Zero chance of being dropped otherwise all the NASDAQ planning would be wasted) once sell orders arrive, full OB's will allow a market equilibrium price to establish (most likely MB will fall towards the IS price) but if that's not due until next season the market will remain stuck for the foreseeable future (without an FI stimulus/promotion) IMO.

  • @Notanyoldnewuser said in Why is the market so flat?:

    I said market buying, ie using the market buy button instead of ME

    I haven't used MB since ME arrived & I certainly won't be until OB's arrive as it's an artificially inflated figure, that was only maintained by FI backed IS supporting it, without that support the true market price is actually far nearer the buyer generated IS price, so buyers simply have no incentive to pay more.

    Why is any buyer going to pay MB price of 100p for a player who's real value is 80p but can be picked up via ME for 70p???

  • In response to the original poster, the market is flat because of a lack of market confidence.

    I haven't bought anyone in over three weeks and have no open buy bids. Very occasionally I sell someone and withdraw the proceeds straight away.

    Why would I buy when:

    (a) the market buy price is overinflated and the potential for significant increases in market buy price are heavily reduced now;

    (b) although buying via the matching engine may appear to offer great bargains, in reality I'd just be buying at whatever the going rate is and probably end up with a player I'll struggle to sell for a meaningful profit (certainly once the 2% buy commission is introduced and traders lower their offers accordingly); and

    (c) FI has shat all over the profitability of my existing holds.

    (a) + (b) + (c) doesn't = a buoyant market!

  • @Geronimo159387 They will surely postpone the 2% buys until sell orders at the very least.

  • I think before ME and no IS, money would just trickle into whoever someone moderately fancied, increasing their price. Whereas now, unless a player is genuinely undervalued or has done something to increase their value (like score for Barca aged 17), then people just head to the ME (a 30 year old £3 player putting in a decent pb score isn't groundbreaking enough for people to market buy). This doesn't mean the market can't rise as a whole, because ME IS prices will rise as demand outstrips supply, it just accentuates the sticky patch FI is going through right now. In my opinion.

  • I’ve said it before. For market confidence and intrinsic value in comparison to prices it’s imperative sell orders come together with a dividend increase. Otherwise prices will drop and panic will ensue.

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