Why is the market so flat?

  • @Geronimo159387 I agree with @Mr-e-bardhë (whoever that is) point above.
    On top of this i believe we will see a huge marketing push, a dividend increase and sell orders introduced in time for the new season. I think FI will resolve the IS problem that a lot of people are concerned about. All this will increase confidence and mean players are valued correctly and are desirable again.

  • @Mr-e-bardhë I think he means say you want to buy a player for 80p, and the min a seller will sell for is 80p, 2% is introduced and you will only now but at 78p, but this bid won't get matched. However, you're not gonna then buy at £1 because you wanted him for 80p originally.

  • @Mr-e-bardhë said in Why is the market so flat?:

    if buy offers are driven down by the 2% buy tax, to a point where sellers are unwilling to accept, then if a buyer wants to acquire that player, they will simply have to market buy, meaning sell queues will move and prices will rise

    Which is completely correct & will certainly happen across individual players but the index currently has 3000+ players & most of those don't fall into that category. The top 200 & those that you allude to will continue to be in demand via both ME & MB but what about the other 90%+ players that are currently stagnant?

    Lack of buyer confidence & lower trading volumes across the wider market are very serious concerns for everyone including FI & can't wait for full OB's to resolve the problem, as that could be 3 month's+ away.

  • However, all of this does not stop a good hold being a good hold, which is why I will continue to hold all the players I do.

  • @Geronimo159387 I agree with that but what I keep repeating is that if you've got players with any chance of ever showing any real value, or any chance of having a favourable circumstance, or period of high demand, then you'll be fine. If in 3 years, a player will never be likely to have that, then people need to be asking them selves why they have bought that player. Not everyone agrees with that, but unless I'm mistaken FI have said market makers will be used anyway so I think if people sit tight, things will be fine

  • @Mr-Atouba said in Why is the market so flat?:

    I’ve said it before. For market confidence and intrinsic value in comparison to prices it’s imperative sell orders come together with a dividend increase. Otherwise prices will drop and panic will ensue.

    Yes with buy and sell orders prices will become entirely reflective of sentiment so expect bigger highs when people are positive and lower lows when negativity sets in.

    Nows not the time for sell orders and full order books unless the can make the market boom at the same time

  • Something is needed on the sell side ASAP as currently I’ve become very disinterested in FI. It’s a complete buyers market but even then the paper value people think they’re picking up is worthless if you can’t sell and/or if market values drop because of order books.

    P.S. I’m not dissing FI, it’s still the most amazing thing on this planet and AC is a god.

  • This is a great time for buying and once full OB come in there will be fewer bargains to have as the market will equalize organically..

    The current price of players is what the market valued them at, so don't be misled into thinking all players are overvalued because IS by FI was taken away..

    I am buying as much as I can each day because as sure as the sun rises, all good player prices are only going up over the coming years and nothing worse than missing out when there is a player sale on.

  • @Karl The current buy price that portfolios are based on doesn't reflect their market value, as the vast majority of buyers are now using bids to purchase players - that is far more indicative of their market value.

    You might be right and it might be a great time to buy, but as you say once the market equalises, then we will know.

  • I think it is just worth noting that a player who has a buy now price of day 50p is that price because generally 900 shares have been bought at 49p,48p,47p,46p and so on. People have bought at these prices thinking that they are value. Nothing has changed at all with regards to dividends etc. As I mentioned before the only thing that has changed is the current IS price.
    So nobody's shares have dropped in value since ME merely the ability to sell them.

    We also have the issue that we are nearing the end of the season in certain league, which, like an ageing player tempts people to try and sell out.

    One again patience is the key, I'm buying lower priced players with next season in mind and am enjoying picking up some real bargains along the way.

    Like many people I am struggling massively to sell many of my players at market price but I can't have it both ways. As someone said - it's a real buyers market out there and cash is king.

  • @Fenrir said in Why is the market so flat?:

    Nows not the time for sell orders and full order books unless the can make the market boom at the same time

    Maybe that is what the market is anticipating, or some of it at least, and trying to free up funds. I think of it as the pre Tsunami effect, where tide is going out until it all eventually crashes back, which we've seen periodically.

    There's more general negative sentiment about FI right now though, so it feels different from other times.

    That being said, there are some bargains to be had out there right now!

  • There are several reasons why the market is slow and when you look objectively (pretend you do not have skin in the game) they are pretty obvious.

    A rough ongoing diagnosis would be:

    A global pandemic hit the world and cash was required by lots of individuals (FI Blocked withdrawals by removing instant sell). So little or no new money was leaving or entering the market.

    Football was cancelled so the product became like a summer without any football where players would normally drop in price until football returns unless involved in transfer gossip.

    Football index to provide some liquidity fast forwarded the 1st part of order books as they were not prepared to offer instant sell as there belief is too much cash would have been withdrawn (I still believe that if instant sell had been reintroduced a vast amount of money would have been withdrawn as many people are still worried about employment.)

    Unrealistic views that Instant sell should have been brought back meant sentiment was reduced further so again less traders inclined to invest new money.

    An understanding that when sell orders come into play that Market price will fall as sell orders will be huge initially.

    Season coming to an end now so traders waiting to see what next season looks like - Deposit bonus, increased dividends full order books before committing new funds.

    I feel that it could be a couple of months yet before optimism overtakes pessimism here. I also think that we will all be rewarded with much higher player prices and liquidity across the board by Christmas.

  • @Fletch said in Why is the market so flat?:

    100% Agree and articulated very well

  • @Fletch

    Very good summary...

    To be honest, my advice to anyone who is inexperienced is to keep a cash balance and not go in too hard... Even experienced traders are full of self doubt in decision making at the moment.

    There are all sorts of factors in play, and it is a very difficult market. If you are new to the platform, try to take a bit of a backseat.

    Things will get back to normal just like the world will get back to normal. Those with more experience can see opportunities, and there will be people on social media pushing players - but try not to get drawn in at the moment.

    If I had the discipline I would be keeping a cash balance so that I could see the lay of the land before making my decisions. I'd advise those who are not feeling too confident in buying right now to do the same...

  • Wise advice but it's hard to not feel FOMO when it looks like there's opportunity. Then again, it's pointless just throwing money about when you don't know what FI are going to do half the time haha

  • Personally it feels flat due to the fact you can't see people selling anymore on the ticker.
    I appreciate people are swapping futures between each other but you can't see it happening ...

  • @Doug-s said in Why is the market so flat?:

    Personally it feels flat due to the fact you can't see people selling anymore on the ticker.
    I appreciate people are swapping futures between each other but you can't see it happening ...

    True. And this is why full order books are needed and will make things a lot more transparent

  • I’m addition to some of the very good analysis given already here are three more reasons.

    1/ ME means a lot of money That would have normally gone directly into purchases is now tied up in bids. I’m economic theory the supply of money determines price. If everyone gets a pay rise prices inevitably rise. If the bank prints less money prices fall. What ME does is reduce the supply of money with the consequence that prices will fall.

    2: people think prices will fall and they can buy cheaper in the future. Whether or not they are right doesn’t matter. Prices fall (deflation) when people hoard money expecting future price falls. Why pay £40k for a car if you think it will be £35k next week? This can lead to a deflationary spiral where confidence in price/value is undermined.

    3/ People are expecting FI to do something to correct the marker. They are holding on to their money to see which way the wind is blowing. Will it be supporting the bottom end? Increasing divs therefore helping the top end more? Changing the matrix? Etc. Traders don’t like uncertainty. They need to have an market where they know today’s good bet doesn’t become a bad bet because of FI favouring one side of the Market over another.

    I think the market was probably over valued when ME was introduced. People who had players for sale delisted and sold via the ME. Bizarrely their delisting made a players price rise even though they were then trading hands for less.

    In the future more of us will look at IS as been the true value of our ports and the buy now price will be an indicator and nothing more.

  • I think a major reason it is so flat is that so many players like TAA, Rashford, Mbappe etc rose so much for doing nothing. From when football stopped to now those 3 rose £3 for basically doing nothing. So quite a lot of money has gone in to youth, so people are probably just sitting on them.

  • I'm cool with it being flat right now. It is effectively traders voting with their feet:

    "We generally aren't buying because we don't know what is a good 'bet' right now, and we certainly arent buying any in-play goal scorers like we used to in case we can never sell them!"

    The moaning on Twitter is incessant but again that's good. FI will have to act sooner to address this. It's not a case of deposit bonuses or even dividend increases. It's a simple case of coming out with a detailed announcement of exactly what is being changed in the summer. That's the only thing stifling the index right now. ..uncertainty.

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