Is the World Cup good or bad for the Index?



  • After the recent price drop in players over £3.00 in the last few days it seems to have come to light that traders are selling off due to the impact that the World Cup would have on the Index !!

    If the World Cup was not happening then would this price drop have occurred? probably not....on the flip side lower priced players playing in the World Cup will increase slightly.

    Should we be concerned that the World Cup would drop a lot of the decent index players even further?? if Neymar plays and Brazil get knocked out in the first knockout stage then his price will be hit badly, he may go as low as £10.50 !!

    Anyone have any thoughts on this topic?



  • @AndyP32 said in Is the World Cup good or bad for the Index?:

    After the recent price drop in players over £3.00 in the last few days it seems to have come to light that traders are selling off due to the impact that the World Cup would have on the Index !!

    What makes you say that? Isn't it more that some players had previously got a price boost due to their involvement in the CL/EL and those competitions are nearing their end? I would imagine that having the WC is somewhat propping up the prices of players who are good for PB, as they at least have something to play for over the summer. This is the first end-of-season with PB in place, but I would guess that without the summer tournament we would see far bigger drops in basically any players not likely to be involved in a big transfer that would generate media buzz and thus give them value from June to August.



  • @BL__FI i know what you are saying but i've seen more posts about traders portfolios going down than up (including mine) !! so the price boost is irrelevant compared to how much traders have lost over the last few days....



  • @AndyP32 Sorry, I'm not following you. Firstly, just because more portfolios have gone down than up in recent days doesn't mean they've gone down more than they went up in the period before, so the price boost is far from irrelevant. Secondly, I still don't see where the link to the World Cup comes in?



  • @BL__FI the link to the World Cup comes into play as to the reason why players like Messi/Ronaldo/Greizmann/Kroos/Werner (who are more than likely to be involved in the World Cup) have suffered a price drop, why would these decent PB players suffer on average a 12p drop when they could potentially be top everytime they play during the World Cup?!?!

    Why are traders selling that much for profit at this period of time anyway? why don't they just keep them if their price will go up during the WC and sell for more profit !!



  • I think the market is still in its infancy and is just as much about us getting to grips with that and working out when to buy during the quieter times and when to sell during the busier parts?

    I don't think the WC has a negative effect on the market as they'll be more transactions i feel this summer then there was same time last year and perhaps more than there will be in the summer of 2019... I just think it's an April thing... and maybe going forward it will be seen as a better month to sell off your assets than any other as it follows a near full season of over-hyping and high rising talent (before the inevitable summer falls)....People leaving it till May may have left it too late?

    Also a new tax year so many might be drawing out on that?

    One thing I did notice though was the volatility in the market after the UCL ties last week and that I haven't really seen before??? The fact is people buy up PB potentials ahead of big games and dump when the prices either rise or after the matchday... That could be just as hostile during the WC and smarter investors might in fact be better to ignore trading this summer rather than jumping in with blank cheque books and following the masses?



  • @dannypea were you one of the traders that cashed out on Messi/Ronaldo/Greizmann/Werner a few days ago ??



  • No.... I have three of the four but don't intend on cashing out on Messi or Ronny just yet (in fact i brought more today)... Griezmann will pick up with the transfer rumours so the time to sell will be during the media interest for me (depending on who he's linked with).. I missed out on Werner because his value is too high for me which I am gutted about... I see better value right now in others but again depending on who he's linked with his price could spike higher still during the summer so I wish i got on at 2.50 but not willing to move in at 4 plus.

    I see all potentially doing well (and attracting MB) in the summer so anyone I feel similar I wouldn't sell just yet... But looking ahead 12 months... IF I have a similar portfolio with NO major tournaments ahead... I'm thinking March/April may be the best time to sell off some assets??



  • @dannypea said in Is the World Cup good or bad for the Index?:

    No.... I have three of the four but don't intend on cashing out on Messi or Ronny just yet (in fact i brought more today)... Griezmann will pick up with the transfer rumours so the time to sell will be during the media interest for me (depending on who he's linked with).. I missed out on Werner because his value is too high for me which I am gutted about... I see better value right now in others but again depending on who he's linked with his price could spike higher still during the summer so I wish i got on at 2.50 but not willing to move in at 4 plus.

    I see all potentially doing well (and attracting MB) in the summer so anyone I feel similar I wouldn't sell just yet... But looking ahead 12 months... IF I have a similar portfolio with NO major tournaments ahead... I'm thinking March/April may be the best time to sell off some assets??

    Sorry for media player bashing but why on earth would someone spend £9 on CRonaldo at 33 years old?



  • My thoughts are that its just the bigger investors removing their money to invest 5k after the trader meet. Think of how many ppl must have a big portfolio of thousands of pounds. 5k for every person who sells up. This will add up to ALOT of money coming out of the index only to be re-invested after the meeting. The bigger players have taken a bigger hit in terms of pure pennies but I've seen lower players take hits too that are around the same percentage dip. So I think it's an across the board thing. Just the bigger value players look worse cos they'll be top of the decrease list. We'll see all that money flood back in as the meeting passes I believe.



  • @John-Renwick said in Is the World Cup good or bad for the Index?:

    My thoughts are that its just the bigger investors removing their money to invest 5k after the trader meet. Think of how many ppl must have a big portfolio of thousands of pounds. 5k for every person who sells up. This will add up to ALOT of money coming out of the index only to be re-invested after the meeting. The bigger players have taken a bigger hit in terms of pure pennies but I've seen lower players take hits too that are around the same percentage dip. So I think it's an across the board thing. Just the bigger value players look worse cos they'll be top of the decrease list. We'll see all that money flood back in as the meeting passes I believe.

    That’s a good thing when there’s only 200 in the field like last year however 2000+ means unless new traders come in all that’s hpoening is money is taken up on fees



  • @Chicken-Badge Don't know if you saw my post in the other thread, but if you're only planning to hold him until, for example, Portugal go out of the World Cup, his age is not that important. In that time he could potentially win three 18p PB dividends in the CL (realistically if he did he would also get the MB every time, so 23p x3) and a whole bunch of (sometimes triple) media as well over the summer. Obviously he's unlikely to actually get all three maximum dividend payouts and I'm not saying I would recommend people do buy now, because all kinds of other things could happen, but that applies to other players too. As I said, you are free to bash MB players as much as you want, but you come across as very blinkered and unwilling to accept the very obvious value they offer (especially in the case of someone like Ronaldo who has been excellent for PB throughout 2018, too). Edit: Forgot to mention potential for World Cup PB too.



  • @Chicken-Badge with Ronaldo being 33, I don’t think it matters as much with him considering he’s in better shape than most other top players who are between 23-28 (the normally quoted peak years). Science has moved on, top players who look after themselves can still play beyond 33 whereas 10-15 years ago they were on their final contract in Qatar.

    His ego also has to play a part in people’s judgment of him - I believe he wants to set a Champions League record that won’t ever be matched, he’ll want to set the La Liga record so it won’t ever be matched (with Messi going back to Argentina for his final year then he’ll see this as an opportunity) and he also wants to be the overall top international goal scorer (think he needs about 20 so that’s a WC, a qualifying campaign and a Euros and he should be there).

    When people quote Zlatan as a reason why old players are high risk, I understand that point, but he was injured in April and was back by November. An ACL takes out most players for 9 months and he was out for 7 (above point about players who look after themselves well into their thirties). Zlatan is a journeyman (albeit highly successful) who doesn’t spend any time at one club, Ronaldo is an icon at Madrid/globally and will want to continue setting records so he can hold claim to be the greatest that ever lived. That’s the distinction that can be drawn between Ronaldo and the example of Zlatan that is always brought out.

    With regards to his price, he’s a valuable asset, so I can see why people hold him. I also hold him, but not to a massive extent as I’ve spread my portfolio very wide, so this isn’t a defence of my own choices/portfolio, I’m just stating why I believe that people would have that mindset.



  • @Chicken-Badge hahahaha... my own personal view on Ronaldo is that he'll be a media magnate and absolute star during the WC (before he kicks a ball).... Real Madrid have a good chance of getting to the UCL final next month and if they get through and dare I say go on to win it (again) a lot would probably be down to Ronaldo... So whatever the starting point of value... If my theory is correct and they beat Bayern at least then his value will rise....

    Then there is the WC and whilst Portugal have a relatively straight forward group (allowing for PB opportunities), they also arguably have the tie of the round against Spain... This again will drive MB and I think should Portugal qualify (and they should) they'll face Uruguay or Russia in the next round with every chance and the longer they are involved the more again the price of Ronny should be (as long as he is playing well, which as one of the world's best 'ever' footballers i'm sure he's capable of...

    That said... If Bayern KO Ronny & co and Portugal slump to a 1st round exit i'm then in a dilemma do I sell and cut my losses or do I hold on in the hope he'll have one more good season at Real???? Ideally this is a short term purchase of mine but it could all go t*ts up and if it does i'm sure you'll tell me about it!!!!! ;-)

    Just one last thing... My ave purchase price of Ronaldo is just over £7 in total and with PB wins i'm comfortable to take a slight loss at worst case scenario.... If he drops to £5 so be it... I'll sell up... But if he moves back to £10 then great...So on the whole buying at £9 is not really as big a gamble as it sounds!!



  • @dannypea I agree and I think we all witnessed the greatest play ever I'm glad I see him before he went to Madrid



  • @BL__FI said in Is the World Cup good or bad for the Index?:

    @Chicken-Badge Don't know if you saw my post in the other thread, but if you're only planning to hold him until, for example, Portugal go out of the World Cup, his age is not that important. In that time he could potentially win three 18p PB dividends in the CL (realistically if he did he would also get the MB every time, so 23p x3) and a whole bunch of (sometimes triple) media as well over the summer. Obviously he's unlikely to actually get all three maximum dividend payouts and I'm not saying I would recommend people do buy now, because all kinds of other things could happen, but that applies to other players too. As I said, you are free to bash MB players as much as you want, but you come across as very blinkered and unwilling to accept the very obvious value they offer (especially in the case of someone like Ronaldo who has been excellent for PB throughout 2018, too). Edit: Forgot to mention potential for World Cup PB too.

    Then you would lose most of them dividend with the massive drop he will take with everyone doing the same, no 2 ways about t most players are over valued because of the WC so people thinking oh great we get some dividends, dont seem to be factoring in the price drop these over inflated players will drop straight after, with any potential div wins wiped out completely or in some case where played dont even win and divs



  • @SMacFI Yep that's fine and I would also definitely recommend getting out of trades before players exit the World Cup unless you are happy to hold through the inevitable dip on the assumption that their price will recover due to transfer buzz or the upcoming season (depends on the player). I was just answering the question "why on earth would someone spend £9 on CRonaldo at 33 years old?" - Answer being there is plenty of potential to earn dividends and sell at a profit before he even turns 34. Obviously that's not guaranteed, but the possibility/likelihood is the answer to the question "why?". Having an exit strategy is an essential part of any trade, whether it's Cristiano Ronaldo or, say, Jonathan Bamba ;)



  • @BL__FI I have always said the WC is a bonus if you already held theses players but to buy into on over inflated players, some people will be in for a huge shock afterwards IMO, unless any player has transfer rumours surrounding him which will keep his price propped up. Exit stratagem is very important, but I dont thank a lot of new players are aware of this and simply think after the WC you sell your player at current price, the sell que will be huge to exit a trade at a players current price too need there to be demand in that player IE people wanting to buy them at that price, just something for people to be aware of



  • I understand if people had brought Ronaldo for around £4-8 and keeping him for media and pb for cl and wc . Surely peope buying him At current £9 price has not much value in hoping for some mb n pb wins . He won’t have much transfer news and I rmb him stating that he will never go play in China or USA . One big injury and his price will collapse and at 33 it’s not easy to overcome it .



  • @SMacFI said in Is the World Cup good or bad for the Index?:

    @BL__FI I have always said the WC is a bonus if you already held theses players but to buy into on over inflated players, some people will be in for a huge shock afterwards IMO, unless any player has transfer rumours surrounding him which will keep his price propped up. Exit stratagem is very important, but I dont thank a lot of new players are aware of this and simply think after the WC you sell your player at current price, the sell que will be huge to exit a trade at a players current price too need there to be demand in that player IE people wanting to buy them at that price, just something for people to be aware of

    That's all fair enough, certainly a risk new traders need to be aware of.


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