Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic



  • 0_1593528423699_Screen Shot 2020-06-30 at 15.46.30.png

    Last April, Pogba was 'King of the Index' and the talk of the town around here. A dividend machine, putting smiles on peoples faces daily but was he worth betting on?

    If you bought £1,000 worth of Pogba futures back in April 2019, you would currently have £322 profit. If you had spent that £1,000 buying Pulisic futures instead, you would currently have almost 3x more profit. (£912)

    Just something to think about when you're tying up fortunes to buy the current 'King of the Index'.



  • @Dan-The-Man

    Hey Dan, you got a spare rod mate ... I haven't been fishing in ages!! 🤣😉🎣



  • There are plenty of good players on the index even some great ones but buying them doesn't guarantee making money; TIMING of any trade is far more important than the quality of the player bought. I strongly believe that we are entering a period of exponential FI growth, maybe not quite the AC 10x but certainly doubling or trebling over the next couple of years, however that doesn't mean to say all players will rise by the same % amount.

    Player selection & timing of any buy/sell trades will determine whether you 8/10 times your investment or just double it, clearly both good ultimate outcomes but one definitely preferable to the other. Given the recent rises in the top end I think some of the largest potential gains are to found in the mid/bottom end players, equally probably some of the largest losses too, so just a question of choosing the right ones.

    The above analysis just highlights that buying the most OBVIOUS winner isn't always the most profitable choice, food for thought.



  • @johnboywalker

    I blame @Advinculas-Index for reminding me of a post from 22nd of April last year. That caused me to look back and get my spreadsheets out. 30/20 grid's worth of research later, with price changes and compounding data based on real dates and here we are.

    It would have been rude not to share it. :-)



  • Now i know how Oppenheimer felt ;)



  • Do those dividends collected include the double media payouts we had?



  • @Meridismo04

    Yeah, they included everything except the first 30 day IPD, which I don't have to hand.



  • Nicely timed.... oh wait he's just had a 50p rise in the past week...😩



  • Oh ffs Dan, have a day off!

    First we had your Fabinho post dragged back up, then Henderson, now Pulisic!!

    Mate, besides Messi, EVERY PLAYER I bought last year and held has risen substantially. I'm not a genius, it's just easy to not lose money at the moment if you are patient.
    In fact Messi is niw firmly in profit due to dividends so even that trade has reaped rewards.

    If you carry on, I'm going to recommend you change your forum name to Dan The Gloat 😂



  • I endorse this pump. Please buy more Pulisic.



  • @DillyDong said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    I endorse this pump. Please buy more Pulisic.

    I endorse this endorsement



  • @Dan-The-Man this can’t be compared, I could easily look at the graph, choose a date 23/12/19 for example. If I had bought both players on this date I’d of made in the region of £50 more on Pogba then Pulisic (not including divs) I’m sure Pogba would still be on top if I did 🧐🧐.



  • @Advinculas-Index Carried...



  • @Meridismo04 said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    Do those dividends collected include the double media payouts we had?

    Update: Just had a look back through the results, Pulisic scored 2 and picked up 1 assist during the first 30 days, so that would be another 3p worth of divs which would have been another £18.75 on his total.

    Interestingly that 3p compounded, would have brought his compounded total to £945.94 for Pulisic.

    Pogba didn't net or assist in that time so his doesn't change.



  • @ScouseSte said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    Oh ffs Dan, have a day off!

    First we had your Fabinho post dragged back up, then Henderson, now Pulisic!!

    Mate, besides Messi, EVERY PLAYER I bought last year and held has risen substantially. I'm not a genius, it's just easy to not lose money at the moment if you are patient.
    In fact Messi is niw firmly in profit due to dividends so even that trade has reaped rewards.

    If you carry on, I'm going to recommend you change your forum name to Dan The Gloat 😂

    Come on now man, that wasn't me gloating... You've seen me gloat... many... MANY... times. I'm much better at gloating than that. I'm the best at gloating. I have the best gloats.

    I would have made a much bigger deal about the old threads, grabbed a few screen shots of you calling me an idiot for thinking Pulisic was a better buy than Pogba... I'd probably of tagged a large group of people and there's a certain catchphrase that would most definitely have been used. Nah this wasn't a gloat.

    We've got a lot of new guys who could benefit from seeing things like this. It's just food for thought.



  • @Shippers said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    @Dan-The-Man this can’t be compared, I could easily look at the graph, choose a date 23/12/19 for example. If I had bought both players on this date I’d of made in the region of £50 more on Pogba then Pulisic (not including divs) I’m sure Pogba would still be on top if I did 🧐🧐.

    No doubt mate.

    I'm sure there's one or two more dates in the year your could have picked to make that case too. The thread isn't saying "Pulisic is always the better buy"... it just shows that you don't need to buy the big boys to generate the profits.

    It's been my experience that the cheaper priced players, have the highest potential for profits. Providing of course, that you can pick em.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    @Shippers said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    @Dan-The-Man this can’t be compared, I could easily look at the graph, choose a date 23/12/19 for example. If I had bought both players on this date I’d of made in the region of £50 more on Pogba then Pulisic (not including divs) I’m sure Pogba would still be on top if I did 🧐🧐.

    No doubt mate.

    I'm sure there's one or two more dates in the year your could have picked to make that case too. The thread isn't saying "Pulisic is always the better buy"... it just shows that you don't need to buy the big boys to generate the profits.

    It's been my experience that the cheaper priced players, have the highest potential for profits. Providing of course, that you can pick em.

    Or sell them



  • @Advinculas-Index said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    @Dan-The-Man said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    @Shippers said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    @Dan-The-Man this can’t be compared, I could easily look at the graph, choose a date 23/12/19 for example. If I had bought both players on this date I’d of made in the region of £50 more on Pogba then Pulisic (not including divs) I’m sure Pogba would still be on top if I did 🧐🧐.

    No doubt mate.

    I'm sure there's one or two more dates in the year your could have picked to make that case too. The thread isn't saying "Pulisic is always the better buy"... it just shows that you don't need to buy the big boys to generate the profits.

    It's been my experience that the cheaper priced players, have the highest potential for profits. Providing of course, that you can pick em.

    Or sell them

    Yeah that's true enough like. Thing is, most players in the mid range tend to be easy enough to move on. One of the arguments against buying 1500 Henderson at 27p was that I'd never be able to shift em... but I don't think people took in to consideration that he'd be super easy to sell at £1.65.



  • @Dan-The-Man I don’t think anyone would disagree with you, I think new users need as much info as possible. You could of easily bought into Pogba and used those divs to buy Pulisic over time for example. I believe a diversified port is key, I’ve held both these players at the same time



  • @Shippers said in Case Study: Pogba vs Pulisic:

    @Dan-The-Man

    You could of easily bought into Pogba and used those divs to buy Pulisic over time for example.

    Looking at the data, £1,000 worth of Pogba has given you £310 in dividends in 14 months, so whilst you could buy into Pulisic with that... the rate it came in at, meant you'd likely never get the 625 Pulisic from Pogba divs alone and obviously as Pulisic rises in price, the cost of buying in to him rises too.

    Where as if Pulisic rises another 20p you could sell £1,000's worth and buy the 128 Pogba... but then you've gotta ask... why bother? There's always another guy at the bottom going to move upwards.

    The problem I have with a TOP OF THE MARKET dividend strategy on FI, is that your bet expires in 3 years, so you can't compound the dividends for long enough to make it worth doing.


Log in to reply