Has Bruno Fernandes reach his ceiling price?



  • Just finished doing my 3 monthly port review and noticed that Bruno Fernandes has only risen 10p since mid March dispite match winning displays and dividend wins. Where's most of the other top 6 have risen sharply.

    Jayden Sancho was 10.24 now 14.05
    Kylian Mbappe was 7.81 now 10.50
    T Alex Arnold was 6.59 now 10.24
    Neymar was 8.56 now 8.99
    E Braut Haaland was 5.85 now 8.09

    So is he now well under priced or has he reached his ceiling price?



  • It's a fair point. To be honest i'm shocked he hasn't risen in line with Sancho considering his MB and PB appeal. His turn to rise again will surely come.



  • I bought him just after football was cancelled and he had a big rise when MB was the only game in town. He has fallen below £10 since then but has now crept up to near his peak price, so there is more rises to come with the end of the season and Euros to come.



  • He’s underpriced, it’s clear, think long term Bruno is Utd’s best player he’s making that team tick.
    Easy to get caught up in the last few months and the other rises.



  • He's been brilliant.

    He's gone from £4 to £10 this season.

    I just think others may be holding off to see if he can still do it next season & prove he's the real deal rather than just going through a purple patch.

    He's certainly caught most of the league out with his quality, but they always say the second season is harder than the first as you lose that initial element of surprise & people start to plan accordingly to nullify you. Whether that's 2 men on him, man-marking, or a bit of rough stuff? 🤔

    People are naturally just being cautious.

    If he starts next year like he's playing this then no doubt he will close the gap again.



  • If you have faith that players as a whole in the platform will rise then it stands to reason that you should expect Bruno to rise as well as he is capable of bringing home the divs in on both MB and PB.

    He is coming into his peak years now and there is no reason why he wont feature in the top 3 of 4 players on the index for the next 2 or 3 years.

    in the short term, look at Man uniteds run in. The only game that you could argue they are underdogs is the FA Cup game (Non PB) against Chelsea, and even then , as you saw last night Chelsea cant defend so anything could happen in this match.

    0_1593673952838_upload-7ccd7686-7482-4bd6-ba4d-2e54f7d0d3d8.

    In addition to this, Man united also have the eufa cup in August to look forward too....



  • @Ericali I agree with this, I think it's people waiting to see whether he can repeat his form next season. If he can, I suspect he's nowhere near his ceiling.

    I had a quick look to see how many games he's played for Utd as his rise did seem exceptionally quick. Not sure if it's right, but the few sites I looked at all said he has only played 8 games in the PL. That's not a very sustained period of form at all and that is what puts me off buying at his current price. The downside is that if he does carry on at this level of performance, he'll be even more expensive by the time I'm convinced!



  • The problem is the Manchester United obsession. There are only so many dividends on offer, yet you have 2 United forwards costing over £7 (Rashford and Greenwood) and 2 United midfielders costing £8 and £10 (Pogba and Bruno).

    Between them, they will get lots of media, but for an almost guaranteed 3 or 5p every few days you are looking at paying over £32! Its a dear do! And we don't quite know how the media review might also impact the current media United bias.

    As for PB, its still a lottery (even though the matrix isnt changing) and only 2 out of the 4 can win it each time.

    Personally, if I was going to buy any United player it would be Bruno. But for £10 I'd expect little competition from teammates (like TAA). Unfortunately there's Pogba. So I can understand why Bruno isn't flying. The best thing for his price is if Pogba leaves



  • @Mintyfresh he's been the best player in the PL since he came - it's just not a very large sample size.

    Di Maria looked different class for the first 5-6 games, his transition looked seamless - then it all went south.

    Di Maria wasn't a bad player, he had proved himself at Madrid & at PSG since - it just didn't work out, he got unsettled, his house got robbed, her indoors was down his earlobe. It all changed very quickly.

    No player since Eric has had a bigger initial impact than Bruno has - so that's quite a compliment. 👍

    The £6 rise has been justified, but with his 2 goal performance Vs Brighton & his price barely moved, suggesting market sentiment is waiting for a little bit more reassurance before he makes his next leap up the ladder.



  • I wouldn't worry about what @ScouseSte says with regard to the media & the United bias.

    Even if reviewed & deleted the "United" multiplyer is overstated - if it wasn't where are the Newcastle United & Sheffield United players in the daily media mesh? 🤔

    The fact is, Manchester United is the biggest club in England with the biggest supporter base.

    From that, people want to read about Manchester United, and because of that - journalists write about Manchester United & their players.

    That isn't going to change 👍



  • @Ericali

    Partly due to the mass buy in on Greenwood when he scored the 1st goal as well

    @ScouseSte
    good point re the other Man united players that i hadnt thought about, though i suspect the Pogba effect will continue to diminish over the next 18 months or so.



  • Wait for the dividend increase to arrive. Bruno will fly. People will think how naive they were to doubt he actually was the real deal.

    You can’t really compare him with di Maria. Granted both quality players. However, Bruno is more of pivotal player and a completely different personality.

    Very rare you see a player with such high quality who has a desire to work so hard without the ball. He’s even got Martial pressing hard. Wtf.



  • @Ericali said in Has Bruno Fernandes reach his ceiling price?:

    I wouldn't worry about what @ScouseSte says with regard to the media & the United bias.

    Even if reviewed & deleted the "United" multiplyer is overstated - if it wasn't where are the Newcastle United & Sheffield United players in the daily media mesh? 🤔

    The fact is, Manchester United is the biggest club in England with the biggest supporter base.

    From that, people want to read about Manchester United, and because of that - journalists write about Manchester United & their players.

    That isn't going to change 👍

    I was more referring to reduced Daily Express articles and the influx of foreign media etc mate.

    If you don't think there is a chance that United players may be adversely impacted by the media shake-up then, to coin that annoying phrase you use mate...you're just burying your head in the sand 🙈.

    But for arguments sake, let's say it doesn't impact the United bias.
    One other factor i haven't mentioned, which is MASSIVE, is that of Sancho!
    If United sign Sancho, that futher dilutes your chances of winning media massively.
    If Sancho remains a mid, you'd have to spend £32 on Pogba, Bruno and Sancho to fight for the same MB and PB prize each time.

    Thats the problem. Because of the United obsession, the players are cancelling each other out. There is a LOT of money tied up in them. It's not dead money but there are much cheaper options that arent handicapped by more than one teammate.

    Just like Mbappe. If not for Neymar, he'd be £20 now easily

    I think a lot of people don't factor in to their decision making the threat of teammates. It's the FIRST thing I look at when considering a purchase



  • For anyone on Twitter there’s some really interesting analysis from FBI Trader which looks at players CA/Div return trends vs Age.

    https://twitter.com/fbitrader/status/1278559765799620609?s=21

    Basically suggests that a player has higher potential for CA up to 24, at which point it slows down, however higher div returns are experienced by players from their mid 20s onwards.

    I don’t think Bruno has reached his ceiling and he will continue to grow with the platform, but potentially at a slower rate. This will most likely be counteracted by growing div returns though. It would explain the recent disparity in CA between him and Greenwood based on similar performances.

    Doesn’t take into account MB but certainly something to think about.



  • @Ericali said in Has Bruno Fernandes reach his ceiling price?:

    He's been brilliant. He's gone from £4 to £10 this season.

    Lots of holders are sat on healthy profits, so a period of price stabilisation/profit taking is only to be expected, however the guy is a genuine MB/PB hybrid (in the Messi/Neymar mould) with a dividend hike that will disproportionately benefit them incoming & it's fairly clear, even to the casual observer, he's the best player on the pitch every game he plays for the world's media darling club. If ever there were clearer signs of a future King of the index I'd struggle to identify them!

    Bruno will be undoubtedly be one of the best 3 year index holds IMHO & looking back it will be hard to believe he was available for £10, when his future is so obvious.

    Just realised he's returned £2.05 in dividends in the last 6 months, not bad for a £10 price but could be bought at £4 in January which is an even better ROI.



  • He’s already won pb for sporting, Portugal and Man Utd, i don't think there is any debating his consistency.
    He isn't some 20 year old developing this is the real deal at the right age to dominate a team and be a leader.



  • @Geronimo159387

    Again, IF Pogba moves on and Sancho doesn't join

    That's the problem, United is becoming saturated with big name and big hype players, but you can only win a limited number of divs on FI. If you cover all bases, your ROI will be average at best.

    All the while Pogba is there, he will be taking media off Bruno on numerous occasions.
    If Sancho joins, more media lost.
    If Sancho is still a mid, thats PB made even harder to achieve, especially if Pogba is playing too.

    The smart investors right now are seeking opportunities outside of this saturated club.



  • IMO I’m not convinced his price will fly as there will probably always be some hype player or transfer that’s ahead of him, but I think he’ll comfortably reach £12 before the start of next season and he will be in the top 3 dividend returners, so if that’s what you’re looking for in your portfolio then I’d say you can’t go wrong with him!



  • @ScouseSte

    Sancho & Pogba aren't fit to lace his boots IMO & he'll win more than both put together over the next 3 years IMHO. I would actually struggle to name a higher dividend earner over the next 3 years, possibly Neymar? but can see this is clearly yet to be proven, so I will happily return in June 2023 to be proven correct!

    I very rarely pump individual players but this guy looks as certain as it gets & anyone buying him even now will prove a BIG winner over the next 3 years.



  • @Geronimo159387 said in Has Bruno Fernandes reach his ceiling price?:

    @ScouseSte

    Sancho & Pogba aren't fit to lace his boots IMO & he'll win more than both put together over the next 3 years IMHO. I would actually struggle to name a higher dividend earner over the next 3 years, possibly Neymar? but can see this is clearly yet to be proven, so I will happily return in June 2023 to be proven correct!

    I agree, I think Bruno is brilliant (euch ive just been sick in my mouth 😣)
    He could easily be top of the index if he starts getting some PB wins, which looks more than achievable.

    But at the moment, his earning potential is being hindered by Pogba, Rashford, maybe Greenwood if he goes on a scoring run. And thats just from his own team! If Sancho joins United this summer, that's much more competition for divs. If Sancho doesn't join, that's more potential media lost as the "will he/won't he" join United saga rolls on another season.

    However, let's say that we are confident Bruno can overcome all these obstacles and becomes king of the index next season and smashes PB and MB regularly... why then are we paying £14 for Sancho? Why are we paying £8 for Pogba? £8 for Rashford?

    I think the Bruno question opens up a can of worms on pricing and value. Fascinating if anything


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