Is the number of shares circulating now basically unable to fall?

  • So it used to be the case that when you bought a bet you bought them either off another person who was selling or you bought direct from FI. As the number of bets on a player increased the value went up.

    When you sold that bet you either sold to another person (in which case the number of bets stayed constant) or you sold to FI via IS and the number of bets on that player reduced.

    Now that IS has been removed am I right in thinking that the number of bets circulating in the market on a player has no way to fall (barring the 3 year expiry). So anytime you see a players value reducing that basically means that people are sell listing them without actually being able to sell them.

    So this means 2 things, firstly if a player's value is falling then we know that the sell queue is lengthening. So at that point you know you're going to struggle to sell by anything other than IS.

    Secondly, can you work out the length of the sell queue for an individual player based on the difference between their current price and their peak price after the change? Or is that not possible because there isn't consistency between the number of bets needed to move a players value 1p?

  • @GDS someone else will explain it better than me, but in essence your right. Not sure about the sell queue length part, as you've said yourself there are a few factors that make being precise difficult, but that's certainly the principle. I almost think a thread detailing how long we've had players listed might be helpful, so others know whether to bother adding to the sell queue or not, but that could be damaging to those listed so is probably not a goer.

  • @GDS

    The delta to move price 1p is usually 600/900 depending on the price but shrouded in mystery & could change over time, so only a rough guide IMO.

  • @GDS
    It would also depend on how many shares were in the sell queue when IS was withdrawn I think.
    Plus, as @Geronimo159387 says, how many shares it takes to move 1p being consistent.
    Now if you had that data to hand, I'm sure the mathematicians amongst us would be able to give you an accurate figure.

  • When sell offers option is added to the ME, this will cause reductions in price, although when those sell offers are accepted by a buyer, I guess that will restore the price 🤷🏻‍♂️.

    So I don't know, is the conclusion to this post 🤣

  • Ok so we can't be exact about it, but basically, the bigger the fall from the peak the more there is in the sell queue as that's now the only way for a price to fall. So if there's been a big drop the chances of selling to market are remote.

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