You and Your Portfolio
Following AndyP's question... Are you happy with your portfolio? I wanted to find out a little more as a couple of answers intrigued me about best and worst performers in some of your responses... so I'll go first and set the questions if you would like to fill in your answers....
What prompted you to invest in FI?
Who was your first Buy?
Who was your most recent Buy?
Best Bit of Business?
Worst Bit of Business?
Who will win the World Cup?
What price do you think the top player will reach by Jan 2019?
Which player do you think will rise the highest by Jan 2019?
What are you hoping to achieve through FI?
Any advice for newbies?
Date started? I deposited about £20 in Summer 2016. But I only took real interest from December 2016.
Team supported? Crewe Alexandra. Completely irrelevant to FI :(
What prompted you to invest in FI? To invest properly... i.e. hundreds of £££ it was seeing the price rises over the Christmas 2016/17. I vividly remember making about £50 in Dele Alli and Wayne Rooney overnight. By February 2017 I'd scaled up to a few thousand pounds.
Who was your first Buy? 1 Joe Allen .... not even joking
Who was your most recent Buy? Breel Embolo
Best Bit of Business? Buying 100 Neymar for £300 in about April 2017, selling up at about £1150 a few weeks ago.
Worst Bit of Business? I owned 200 Messi when he was available for £1.20 in MB only days, and made a bit flipping him but it was nothing compared to his current price. But in terms of actual bad trades based on the current system, it was buying into Morata early this season because I stupidly assumed that as Chelsea's No9 he would get the same media exposure as Diego Costa. I sold up at a loss. I think with a bit of form back he'll get to £4 next season but it will be a long weary trudge.
Who will win the World Cup? Germany. Some of their players are still remarkably underpriced.
What price do you think the top player will reach by Jan 2019? £14.00. I calculated that to be a rough ceiling for a player winning 5MB and 1PB per month.
Which player do you think will rise the highest by Jan 2019? This is the hardest question so far so I'm going for a Hail Mary crazy leftfield pick. In percentage terms, I think Mascarell can potentially quadruple if he follows Jovic to Bayern. In nominal terms, in the unlikely event Balotelli moves back to England I think he'll be closer to £10 than £5. I have a sneaking suspicion that Mourinho will decide to take a punt on him again.
What are you hoping to achieve through FI? Short term, I've spent the last 12 months telling my girlfriend that Neymar will be paying for her engagement ring so making that happen would be nice. Medium term, I've completely derisked now, so I'm playing with about £3,500 grand of house money. I hope to grow that steadily towards about £10,000. Long term, I feel FI has the potential to go stratospheric if they can properly scale it. This is the investment I'm looking at and thinking a few thousand could potentially become hundreds of thousands if they get it right. It feels like being on board with Bitcoin in 2008.
Any advice for newbies? Two things:
1) I've posted here before that David Beckham c.1999 is the gold standard for an FI player. A young English media magnet, playing for a dominant team at home and in Europe, taking set pieces, scoring goals, and making key assists. The challenge in FI is finding players who are just a little bit more Beckham than other people have yet realised.
2) Try to get into the head of other traders, understand what they as football fans might be looking for, and anticipate it. eg. People want to see the next big thing (and they like gambling) which is why players like Sessegnon and Foden are rocketing, even if they won't be returning any dividends yet. Use the fallibility and nature of other traders to your advantage, and an opportunity to profit. I think there's money to be made treating Football Index as a science (tracking data and baselines); but there's potentially a lot more treating it as an art (thinking about what other people will value).
Some great points there. Like the bit on treating it as an art not a science. I think of the market as this kind of monstrous collective, fuelled by both reason and emotion.