10p Forward of the Month Breakdown



  • OK... so I've uglied up the data from @TotalPunt a bit... but basically, Willian appears to have the 10p 'Forward of The Month' in the bag... probably...

    There's one or two who I think might be able to nick it, but it's a bigger ask than maybe some folk might realise. Here's the data.

    0_1595254266395_Screen Shot 2020-07-20 at 15.10.41.png

    • Messi and Benzema have no fixtures so can't catch him.

    • Sanchez has 3 fixtures but needs 255 points which is 20 points more than his highest score all season. If he can't register the massive 255 PB points from a single game, he's' going to need 460 points from 2 of his remaining games. It just seems unlikely Sanchez will catch Willian given that he has only broken 200PB twice this season but the fact that he's on the board tells you the kind of form he's in, so it's not impossible.

    • Insigne needs 280PB points. He did start the season with a 302+ but he hasn't broken 260 since. He'd need to average 222 points per game from 2 of his last 3 fixtures. It's not impossible... but is it likely? Probably not. He does have a half decent chance of pinching 3rd place by posting a 192 though.

    • Ronaldo has a ridiculous 4 games remaining, who wants to bet against him? Interestingly his highest score since returning from COVID has been 201 points and that's despite playing almost every minute of every game and scoring for fun. His highest points registered so far is 170, so he'd need 524 points out of 2 games. If anyone can do it, it's Ronaldo but his PB for July hasn't left him in a strong position and surely the lad is getting tired sooner or later. He's already played 4 full games in July.

    • Sterling might just be the most likely to come close... He registered a monster score with his 287 and has recently worked out where the goal is. If I were going to bet on anyone taking top spot from Willian, it would be Sterling. He's unlikely to do it in one match but he needs 407 points out of 2 games which isn't completely out of the realms of possibility. Man City play Norwich and Watford... both games could be absolute decimations... I don't think he'll do it... but I wouldn't rule it out. He's arguably underpriced given the City/Champions League debacle too and with the Euro next year... now might not be the worst time to buy....

    For perspective, Willian is £1.20... if he wins that 10p, it's 8.3% dividend return... Sancho would need to win £1.14 worth of dividends to match it.



  • @Dan-The-Man nice work



  • @Dan-The-Man Nice breakdown. Thanks for sharing 👍.

    Still think Ronaldo can challenge for second spot but would be good if he puts some points on the board tonight. I haven't checked the stats but he is usually chasing some sort of goal scoring record for the league/club/career etc plus the league is still up for grabs to keep him motivated on several levels.

    Biggest threat is probably Sterling but I reckon Pep will meddle as usual and he will struggle to get 65+ minutes per game. Still plenty of time to rack up the points.

    I have 1200 Willian, 1000 Ronaldo and 500 Messi so I am hoping for that 1,2,3 😉

    Hope our lad Cuadrado wins PB tonight and gets himself into TOTM contention and back onto traders radar.



  • @Dan-The-Man Agreed on Sterling but he needs to start and do well in both games, pep seems to be rotating and subbing quite early at the moment, I wonder if Jesus might play both games as I think Aguero is still injured?



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  • @Martyn-B said in 10p Midfielder of the Month Breakdown:

    @Dan-The-Man

    Also unless your planning on going in depth on the midfielders later your thread title is misleading!!

    Bollox



  • @Martyn-B said in 10p Midfielder of the Month Breakdown:

    @Dan-The-Man Nice breakdown. Thanks for sharing 👍.

    Still think Ronaldo can challenge for second spot but would be good if he puts some points on the board tonight. I haven't checked the stats but he is usually chasing some sort of goal scoring record for the league/club/career etc plus the league is still up for grabs to keep him motivated on several levels.

    He's been scoring for fun since the return and picked up assists, broke some records, etc. His 'low' PB scores were surprising to me but he's the guy that could knock out 2x 300+ scores. He'll probably bag 10p worth of IPD's ha.

    Hope our lad Cuadrado wins PB tonight and gets himself into TOTM contention and back onto traders radar.

    He's well rested so fingers crossed, tough game though.



  • Do you still have to buy players by 21st of month to qualify?



  • @Kipper72 Yes, by midnight tomorrow night.



  • @Dan-The-Man So are you telling me to do what I've been thinking about doing all day?

    Sell the only 5 Sancho shares I have left and use it to purchase 56 Willian shares



  • @Tikka-Mo-Salah said in 10p Forward of the Month Breakdown:

    @Dan-The-Man So are you telling me to do what I've been thinking about doing all day?

    Sell the only 5 Sancho shares I have left and use it to purchase 56 Willian shares

    I aren't telling you to do it buddy, I'm showing you the data, it's your money, make your own mind up.

    There are risks.... we've not had POTM before, so we don't know how the market will respond. Willian jumped 20p, partly just before the announcement and partly just after... there's every chance half those investors will get out before the div is even paid to bank their profits. We don't know where he's playing next season. If he stays at Chelsea, will he get in the team as often with Ziyech coming? If he goes to Spurs he could win a bit of MB on his way, courtesy of Jose.

    If he stays and he plays... he could be the best value on the market. If he moves to Ajax or something random like Beckhams team in the MLS, he could drop like a rock.



  • @Dan-The-Man I think he said he was stalling on a new chelsea contract as they'd offered 2 years and he wanted 3!
    But thinking about it, Werner will play then 2 from Willian, Hakim and Pulisic...



  • @Dan-The-Man I've been literary thinking all that today and unable to make my mind up. Now that you've put it all together in one post the risks look too high. If it wasn't the very end of the season I would have taken the gamble but like you say there will likely be drop off before TOTM for max profits and then after will come the panic reaction and then likely further drop again if he looks to be leaving or others taking his place. Plus the spread could be depressing by then.

    Ok think I need to use the same tactic with the Sancho shares but find a safer bet.



  • According to that analysis, Ronaldo should sneak into 3rd as he scored 272 tonight



  • Well... Ronnie just opened this up.

    After tonights 272, he's got 3 chances to get a 252...

    If he can get a 272 against Lazio... his score against 18th place Udinese could be fun.

    Worth noting that it's the Champions League in August too...



  • So Ronaldo has made a big step towards 3rd at least. If he is to make the top 3, arguably he needs to top another match day imo.

    Thinking ahead, are any domestic PB leagues starting in August?



  • @Leo-G said in 10p Forward of the Month Breakdown:

    So Ronaldo has made a big step towards 3rd at least. If he is to make the top 3, arguably he needs to top another match day imo.

    Thinking ahead, are any domestic PB leagues starting in August?

    He's jumped Sanchez into the 3rd by a point. (if my maths are correct ha - it's late..)

    Ligue 1 starts August 23rd

    Bundesliga targeting 18th of September.

    EDIT: His score is now listed as a 270 rather than a 272 so he's 1 behind. Imagine if that's the final score ha.



  • And this is why I'm going to hate TOTM!!😆 even if he wins I guess 2nd and 3rd are safe...🙈



  • If they win the league will he not be rested for CL?



  • @Pez ronaldo will decide if he is rested. Do u think he will be happy with immobile outscoring him?


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