£15 barrier



  • @JonesyFI-WH Sancho was an easy prediction. I was raving about him in the 18/19 season and was in fact the reason i joined FI. I had said back then he would be king of the index one day(and got laughed at) and couldn’t believe the talent he had playing for Dortmund and at such a young age. However the bubble burst for me when watching him play for England, he just didnt seem to be the same player which lead me to thinking any change in circumstance for him could drastically change how his ability is utilised or how he develops. It could also go the other way of course and he becomes outstanding.

    Even though i was always a huge fan of Sancho even i now thing his price is ludicrously high



  • @Tom77 We've all seen this pattern repeated - Twitter will be manipulating his past 3 month dividend yield (promotion included) to imply that new buyers can expect the same in order to maintain the buying demand.

    Anyone buying towards the end/after the promotion will get stuck with a moderate dividend yield that won't offset the price drops/commission/instant sell spread whilst being told 'keep the faith' 'king of the index' '3 year bet' - the original pumpers will begin building up their next king.

    Probably got their eyes on Bellingham already.



  • @Black-Wolf said in £15 barrier:

    @JonesyFI-WH Sancho was an easy prediction. I was raving about him in the 18/19 season and was in fact the reason i joined FI. I had said back then he would be king of the index one day(and got laughed at) and couldn’t believe the talent he had playing for Dortmund and at such a young age. However the bubble burst for me when watching him play for England, he just didnt seem to be the same player which lead me to thinking any change in circumstance for him could drastically change how his ability is utilised or how he develops. It could also go the other way of course and he becomes outstanding.

    Even though i was always a huge dan of Sancho even i now thing his price is ludicrously high

    I've not seen anything that makes me think he's the magnificent player people are making him out to be and now that he's moved from a completely dominant team into a league which has much more competition, depth and quality; I can't see him doing enough to justify anywhere near his price.



  • @Erased-Citizen i used to watch a lot of German football especially Dortmund and i just happened upon him early in 18/19 season. I came across FI after searching where i could place a bet on a players future. He definitely impressed me playing for Dortmund but hasnt for england at all



  • @Black-Wolf said in £15 barrier:

    @Erased-Citizen i used to watch a lot of German football especially Dortmund and i just happened upon him early in 18/19 season. I came across FI after searching where i could place a bet on a players future. He definitely impressed me playing for Dortmund but hasnt for england at all

    I get that but I think the point I'm trying to make is that a bang average EPL player would do well in the Dortmund side against most of the opposition they face. That's probably why he's not been brilliant for England as it's a much higher level against much higher quality players.



  • @Erased-Citizen yeah i know im agreeing with you. He is a top talent when playing for Dortmund but im not so sure it will be same in the premier league or even for another club than Dortmund. Time will tell but ill watch from the sidelines on this one



  • @Erased-Citizen So I'm guessing as he managed more goals and assists this season at the age of 20 than Ribery and Robben did for Bayern that you think they were bang average as well?



  • @Marksandygill Robben was a one trick pony. Cut in from the right, shifted it left, shifted it left again, put it in the keeper's bottom right hand corner.

    I would've marked him out the game :) The amount of times I screamed at the telly to keep him on his right. They never listened. Nothing between their ears most of them. That's why they kick a ball about.



  • @Erased-Citizen There are plenty of examples for both sides of the argument (Podolski, Kagawa, Mkhitaryan, Schweinsteiger - De Bruyne, Auba, Firmino, Ballack).

    Someone may be able to find better examples of successes as 2 of the 4 I mentioned haven't/didn't set the PL alight like Sancho is priced to.

    It's safe to say that the transition from Bundesliga to PL isn't easy and I can sleep easy knowing I don't have big money banked on a player doing what many have failed at.



  • I don't trade big amounts but decided to quit while I was well ahead with Sancho. Just sold my whopping 10 shares and spread the bet by topping up the following using mostly ME. Most have games coming up so IPD eligible also. Don't get me wrong Sancho is a wonderful hold, however I see me earning more with this lot (and less risk) and I may get back on Sancho when it seems better value to do so. Obvs there are other players who have better potential however I had the upcoming IPD and Gold days in mind.

    So for me it was 10 Sancho v

    10 Jamal Lewis
    9 Bailey
    9 Hradecky
    9 Kluivert
    8 Suso
    7 Havertz
    7 Tah
    7 Pau Lopez
    6 Pellegrini
    6 Reguillon
    6 Meret
    5 El Haddadi
    2 Kroos
    2 Sterling
    and a partridge in a pear tree



  • @Tikka-Mo-Salah

    Good business



  • @Tikka-Mo-Salah Exactly what I would have done

    Actually I'm too lazy to research that many players so would've probably pile it all into Sterling, so under-priced now that City are back in the CL.



  • I'd say he is a bit risky for my liking. I don't know whether I would say overpriced, as I have been proven wrong many times about what people are willing to pay for a player.

    If he joins united then I am sure the media will cream themselves every time he does something for the first month or two (happened with Bruno). But then after that? Look at Raheem Sterling's price. How is Sancho going to post better stats than Sterling? And Sterling is a forward so stands better chance of PB...
    Edit: If he does join united then you'd think he will be changed to a forward as Martial, Rashford and Greenwood all are - so that could boost his chances of PB somewhat



  • @Baydog That's the bit for me. To be a premium hold you absolutely need to smash Media but also deliver on PB. I think Sancho, if he goes to Utd, can cream the media for a while and as long as he performs on the pitch that will sustain. But whether that translates to PB wins or not is another thing.... and so is Media enough for that price? Not so sure myself. Then you have the opportunity cost to factor in.

    Looks risky at £15 but fair play to those who have £250k locked up in him, that is a scary position to manage. Must be loving the divs right now though.



  • @Chris-J My new strategy is to have at least 1 player from each position Gk/Def/Mid/Att for each of the top 5 league teams that are playing in Europe next season if that makes sense. Spreads my bet and gives me a good chance of getting PB and TOTM regularly, but will also mean the Index will be more enjoyable.



  • @Marksandygill said in £15 barrier:

    @Erased-Citizen So I'm guessing as he managed more goals and assists this season at the age of 20 than Ribery and Robben did for Bayern that you think they were bang average as well?

    Not at all as both (especially Robben) proved themselves at a high level with club and country. He may prove me and others wrong and absolutely boss the EPL and the international scene but what I'm getting at is that his price is at a level that suggests he's going to do that; which is no guarantee!



  • @TotalPunt said in £15 barrier:

    @Baydog That's the bit for me. To be a premium hold you absolutely need to smash Media but also deliver on PB. I think Sancho, if he goes to Utd, can cream the media for a while and as long as he performs on the pitch that will sustain. But whether that translates to PB wins or not is another thing.... and so is Media enough for that price? Not so sure myself. Then you have the opportunity cost to factor in.

    Looks risky at £15 but fair play to those who have £250k locked up in him, that is a scary position to manage. Must be loving the divs right now though.

    Plus you then have to consider what happens when the media also dies down, like it has a little with Bruno. Once the new toy losses it's shine then the initial MB frenzy for them slows down. I don't see huge value in Sancho personally and at present I feel the same about Bruno. Especially when you see what players and yields you can achieve for more shares in cheaper players.



  • @Erased-Citizen said in £15 barrier:

    • his price is at a level that suggests he's going to do that; which is no guarantee!

    That's it for me. If he moves to united and tears it up, he will be £20 in no time and earning divs on a regular basis and those not on or who got off will be gutted,

    However if he doesn't move, doesn't tear it up. gets the shit kicked out of him then he will be back below £10 in no time and those still on will be gutted.

    That's the gamble with Sancho, so it comes down to what you believe is the most likely, but their are no guarantees, too many ifs and buts for me. I like the safer bet myself, but don't see it as losing out as I've made good profit already but now I'm just moving my bet. If he ends up £20 who is to say that it was a mistake to get off at £15, it all depends on what I did with that £15 as that investment could by then be worth £30. That's the beauty of the Index, if your profit is rising then there is no wrong strategy, just remember to enjoy the journey.



  • @Tikka-Mo-Salah said in £15 barrier:

    @Erased-Citizen said in £15 barrier:

    • his price is at a level that suggests he's going to do that; which is no guarantee!

    That's it for me. If he moves to united and tears it up, he will be £20 in no time and earning divs on a regular basis and those not on or who got off will be gutted,

    However if he doesn't move, doesn't tear it up. gets the shit kicked out of him then he will be back below £10 in no time and those still on will be gutted.

    That's the gamble with Sancho, so it comes down to what you believe is the most likely, but their are no guarantees, too many ifs and buts for me. I like the safer bet myself, but don't see it as losing out as I've made good profit already but now I'm just moving my bet. If he ends up £20 who is to say that it was a mistake to get off at £15, it all depends on what I did with that £15 as that investment could by then be worth £30. That's the beauty of the Index, if your profit is rising then there is no wrong strategy, just remember to enjoy the journey.

    Can't argue with that; pretty much captures it perfectly. I'm in the camp that sees his current price as too much of a gamble.



  • @Tikka-Mo-Salah

    I am not sure if he hits £20 that 'those not on him will be gutted'.

    There seems to be the thought in FI that if you aren't on a player, you begrudge when they do well and want the player to do shit and talk it down.

    I don't think that is true. I think if you aren't on a player it lets you be more objective, not less. And those people who think he is a risk at £15 will think he is even more a risk at £20.


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