The proof that investing for PB wins is very risky....



  • Yesterdays matches:

    Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (1-2)
    Caen vs Toulouse (0-0)

    • Top Defender was Alexander Djiku (Caen)
    • Top Midfielder was James Rodriguez (Bayern Munich)
    • Top Forward was Max Gradel (Toulouse)

    Djiku managed to beat both Kimmich and Marcelo who both scored !! (but i think Djiku had an insane amount of completed passes during the match)

    Rodriquez was a fair win as he gets a lot of passes in and also has an accurate success percentage

    but the shock of the day was Gradel NOT scoring and managing to beat Ronaldo and Lewandowski who also didn't score !!!



  • A perfect example of why i don't touch PB targets (although I am naughtily starting to look a little more when I buy futures)....

    The two biggest and best teams in Europe with los Galacticos coming away from the Allianz with a fantastic away win that should boost their chances of reaching the final of the worlds biggest and best club competition and the best player of the night is an unknown Caen defender who gets booked during a goalless relegation zone draw and a Toulouse winger that was quite frankly bang average in the English third tier.

    PB is unpredictable because you aren't just predicting what will happen in one game (which is tough enough) but in a number of games which is pretty impossible at best!!!!!

    Not saying Alexander Djiku deserves the nights plaudits because he does..... I'm just saying it's not for me.... Because even Uri Gellar can't predict that sh*T!!!!!!!!!!



  • @AndyP32 I'd debate this. I've made loads off of sensible pb investments. One game day does not a trend make :)



  • @Noirx4 said in The proof that investing for PB wins is very risky....:

    @AndyP32 I'd debate this. I've made loads off of sensible pb investments. One game day does not a trend make :)

    Yeh it's not about predicting the result on any given gameday. That's what Bet365 is for. Playing for PB is about finding players that are likely to return dividends over a decent timespan.



  • @Noirx4 Did you have Djiku or Gradel?



  • @AndyP32 nah. But I've had parejo, otamendi, neymar etc all with multiple pb wins



  • Id agree with noir and playing cards in this. That predicting over a season is more reliable than trying to predict for a single game, not less. See FPL where on any given week there are surprises yet at the end of the season it's the same players, backed up with stats, on big points



  • I'd like to see FI make all other games that take place on a QF or higher day null and void. As far as I'm aware, top tier football in the big five leagues isn't permitted on European nights without dispensation from UEFA anyway. It just seems a bit arbitrary that Caen or Toulouse players can come away with triple dividends just because there's an important match going on elsewhere.



  • @NewUser72405 said in The proof that investing for PB wins is very risky....:

    I'd like to see FI make all other games that take place on a QF or higher day null and void. As far as I'm aware, top tier football in the big five leagues isn't permitted on European nights without dispensation from UEFA anyway. It just seems a bit arbitrary that Caen or Toulouse players can come away with triple dividends just because there's an important match going on elsewhere.

    But FI doesn't just exist to service the top end portfolios.

    There are plenty of people who have bought into Caen or Toulouse players on the basis of these teams playing 38 eligible games a season and/or having spotted the opportunity of this match on a treble day. FI may have been a bit blase in announcing treble PB for European nights without considering domestic league eligibility, but they can't now arbitrarily disqualify these matches because it suits some of their traders.

    Play the market as it exists...!



  • If enough people complain about these matches being eligible maybe they might take away the triple PB on a day with 2 games?!

    It's great that they add this as a bonus. No need to as it's outside of the normal rules. As @playingcards1 says we all knew about it before the game so no reason why it couldn't have been taken advantage of as I'm sure some did.

    I was more annoyed that Assensio spent the last 20 minutes sabotaging his own score than any Toulouse or Caen players taking PB!



  • I love PB and will no doubt jump up and smack my knackers on my desk when I win it but my point is i find it very 'risky' for buying futures based on this strategy alone... Ok we've all had the Neymar's & Ronaldo's of this world pick up PB points because they are the best players so it's not rocket science to pick that... And I get having a portfolio that includes Otamendi, Koulibaly, Benatia as picking the best 'defensive' players from the best clubs that concede the least.. Or goalscoring midfielders and penalty takers.. But based on maths alone what percentage per PB day are these 'individuals' bringing in dividends??? 1% or 2% chances per year?? 5% at most?? Switch that to say MB and having the top four players in your portfolio (for arguments sake Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Kane) and that gives you 50-60% opportunity for dividends per year with say a 20% on each?

    I know which odds I prefer!!!



  • @Ozzlebert @playingcards1 I completely agree with your points and that we should play the market as it exists if we want to make money. Part of the game is identifying when these one-off games occur before others do. I was more making the point that we are in the privileged position of being able to feed back to FI and shape the market.

    You can make cases either way as to how the triple dividends should work - I personally believe that new customers (the attraction of which is a big part of how we make our money) would be more put off by the players in QFs having their chances of dividends diluted by other matches, as they are more likely to invest in the big names initially. Take Tuesday night as an example - a lot of uninformed customers were disgruntled that Salah lost his GWG and therefore his dividends.

    Perhaps there's a more elegant solution to this, whereby both the "big" and "small" players could somehow get dividends. Or perhaps it's more a question of transparency - making the rules absolutely clear to new and existing customers.

    For the record, I was fully aware that the Caen v. Toulouse match was eligible last night, mainly because I spend all my free time on this amazing product...



  • @NewUser72405 I'm a firm believer in Occrams Razor, 'The simplest solution is always the best'.

    I can't see a simpler solution or wording to this issue than the current rules which show, in table form, that on days with a European quarter final or above it counts as a triple day. I don't see how, or why, anyone would not understand that this covers the other game(s) too.

    I'd be interested to know the type of players that new users go for. I wonder if many will throw £100+ at the big names and only get 10 shares or are they more likely to go for more shares in cheaper players. When I signed up I avoided the big names as it looked like alot of money at the time for very little back.

    I do think that some work needs to be done in the rules section of the website as there are a few out of date rules and some others that need clearing up and making it easier to understand. Thankfully we have the space and plenty of friendly forum users that are more than happy to help out the newer users understand the rules.



  • @Ozzlebert Yeah, you're probably right in that this is the simplest solution. Portfolios aside, I do think it's better that the bigger players attract the biggest dividends for FI's sake as it's easier for them to market (say) Ronaldo winning the dividends v. a relatively unknown player. In any case, it's a small inconsistency in the wider context of FI and I'm sure I'll get over it.

    When I started (when there were 200 players and MB only, so a different market from the current one) I was quite similar to you, actually, in that I invested in the lower end before I made the link between value and dividends.



  • @NewUser72405 it does cost them more when Ronny wins than it would with Max Gradel.



  • @Ozzlebert

    True, but I don't think we or they need to worry too much about that. They should be in it for the long term and I think the best way of doing that is making the big players as attractive as possible.

    I guess this is moot without knowing their cash flow status/customer retention numbers!



  • The problem with PB is that is doesn’t matter how big the football star is, you can easily get someone who is 70p scoring a hatrick and beating Messi /Neymar and co. It’s very very unpredictable.

    MB is where its at.



  • @NewUser60527 On the other hand, to get MB dividends you almost always have to shell out over 4 quid a share (more than nine quid at the moment since Salah is unstoppable currently) and you get 5p return (or 8p maximum). With PB the potential rewards are greater and you can at least give yourself a shot at it for a much lower price. Mixed portfolio is the way forward in my opinion.



  • This is why I have gone slightly mixed.

    I have futures in both Pogba and Salah, MB returns have been fairly constant for the past little while.

    I also have a mix of players at lower prices, transfer potential and players who I think can possibly win PB. My returns have been a lot less but the investment for these players was much lower.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Football Index Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.