Adapting to Change - How I now value my portfolio

  • Like many on here, I've taken a few too many punts in the past that were largely offset by the availability of IS - Instant sell has now been removed, as has the likelihood of selling these risky players for anywhere near the current market buy price. It's safe to say that if I could sell-up now and re-buy, my portfolio would look very different.

    Although never 100% accurate, portfolio value figures could previously offer a benchmark, and with instant sell spreads reasonably consistent (in comparison to today) I could simply multiply by 0.96 to allow for sales commission and some instant selling.

    FI have stated that we will soon have more options on how our portfolio is valued - my problem with this is that any other options are likely to be heavily based on the current matching engine values.

    ME prices fluctuate regularly, paying too much attention to these figures would create a huge sense of false volatility (Footstock users will know what I mean....). I always planned to execute an exit strategy over a 4-6 week period and only sell when players are in demand - temporary fluctuations in ME values are irrelevant to me.

    Instead, I created my own simple Excel system by sorting my portfolio into Low/Medium/High/Very High Risk categories.

    Low Risk = 100% value
    'Easy' Sales
    Players with tight spreads and a high current/imminent demand - Goalkeepers, Decent-aged dividend contenders, Ligue 1 stars (mainly due to more fixtures under the 5x IPD promo)
    My portfolio examples - Neuer, Oblak, KdB, Kubo

    Medium Risk = 90% value
    Bright future?
    Right now in this category I have players with uncertain futures and a few youth players who were previously deemed safe bets. Some may fulfil their potential/get a decent move, others may remain stagnant, risks of eventually falling into an abyss remain present - 90% seems a sensible estimate based on a 4-6 week selling period.
    My portfolio examples - Morelos, Fabian Ruiz, Harvey Elliot, Buendia

    High Risk = 75% value
    Difficult sales
    Mainly surplus players, out of favour but unlikely to move on, i'd be waiting a long time for a spike to sell at.
    My portfolio examples - Under, James Garner, Zinchenko

    Very High Risk = 50% value
    Buy with caution
    Mid thrities, lost their first team places, 'stuck' in non-PB leagues with little interest....
    My portfolio examples - Umaro Embalo, Marcelo (Madrid), Diego Rico

    I then simply add the totals together and multiply by 0.98 and I have what I call my 'Exit Value'. For those interested, my 'Exit Value' figure is around 87% of the FI value.

    Using this method, the effect of any player's losses/gains have an entirely different (and more accurate) impact on the true portfolio value, dependent upon the category the player falls into.

    My method also displays the monetised effects from taking opportunities in the ME to move money from high risk players into low risk - I can 'win' by moving money.

    The game has changed (again...) and so is the way we should be viewing our portfolio values - it may seem pessimistic to some, or even optimistic to others, but either way we need to move away from being fixated on our out-dated portfolio values.

  • @Chris-J

    Interesting, I might do the same.

    How many players do you have in each of the above categories?

  • When you say IS has been removed, how was it before? Only been on here a couple of weeks. You can still IS but it's obviously just too low to even be worth it, is that what you mean? It used to be a lot better spread wise?

  • @ocs123

    I've been moving money across gradually (mainly to goalkeepers) so skewed towards what I deem low risk - I guess we all have a different opinion on risk values.

    Low - 7 players (47% of portfolio value)
    Medium - 10 players (34% of portfolio value)
    High - 5 players (12% of portfolio value)
    Very High - 5 players (7% of portfolio value)

  • @howsthebacon FI themselves used to offer the IS price which was approx 5-10% less than the Buy price. Made it much easier to get out of players so massively improved liquidity. That's why the market is pretty stagnant now as FI withdrew the IS, then launched one half of the ME and everyone is trying to pick up a bargain and the spreads have just got wider and wider.
    Back then people could make riskier bets as they had the safety net of IS to fall back on. Now no-one wants to take a punt on the lower end as they may be left with a player they'll never be able to shift.

  • @howsthebacon The old IS was effectively a sell back to FI option - although you can still effectively sell instantly, it is only via a bid placed from another player through the matching engine (new-ish feature).

    Instant Sell was typically in the 2-5% range - it still fluctuated dependant on the volume of instant sells occurring, only very rarely would we see 'spreads' of more than 10%.

  • Cheers lads, on the plus side I've never known any better so this stagnant market is the norm to me haha, when it gets moving again I won't know what to do with myself.

  • I have a spreadsheet that provides me with the 3 price points on my port
    Buy price less comm
    Mid Price less comm
    IS Price Less comm (In all cases i also allow for an extra 1% comm to allow for a price dropping by 1p as a result of my transaction)

    The mid price is the halfway point between the Buy Price and IS

    I am in the process of selling off my Net deposit total which was £23k and have whittled it down to £11k by selling off IS batches of shares if they hit less than a 2% spread, this can sometimes be a little as 1 share or over 100, for example earlier today i was able to sell a few some Tonali at 2p below his current buy price. (i would say all in all i have sold off this 12k for around 1.5% avg + the standard 2% commission) - the overall mid price spread on my players is roughly 9% - my IS Average spread is currently 16.5%.

    So whilst it takes a bit of patience i would say that even the Mid price i have on my port is erring on the side off pessimism given that the 12k worth of shares i have managed to sell using this method is well below the Mid price figure.

    All the above has taken around 20 days to achieve and hope to be in a position where im back at 0 net deposit by the end of the month

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