OFFERS – Will Lead to Purge, but will be Good for the Future
Londoner last edited by
When the premier league was cancelled on 13 March 2020 due to the pandemic, many traders understandingly panicked and IS their ports. FI commendably acted quickly to stabilise the platform by widening spreads and removing IS. The market capitalisation (MC) then was £102m and since then the market has grown to a peak of around £133m in July with the help of promotions. MC is currently at £127m. Those that need to leave the platform or want to, have had their ports in the market sale queue since football was suspended.
After Offers (sell orders) arrive probably this week as FI has said it is “imminent”, then it will help those waiting months to get out to be able to sell their shares at a reasonable price quickly. Let them leave. It’s their money and their right.
However, don’t be surprised if FI introduce a deposit bonus if the MC falls below £120m, and expect blind panic from FI should MC fall below £100m. Don’t be surprised if we hear on the forum exiting traders complaining of FI using EDD to slow down cash withdrawals over a certain amount.
After the dust settles with the introduction of Offers, and FI’s marketing campaign kicks in, that will leave traders who want to be on the platform to be on hand to settle and help the flood of new traders to have fun in making money here and enjoy the fruits of FI’s growing future prosperity.
@Londoner I think it is pretty much certain now there will be a drop. I think it is essential too, players are way over valued atm and they need to drop to a more reasonable price with regards to risk v reward.
I think the question will be how much of a drop will we see and how much panic this causes.
Personally I am hoping the drop is minimal and things stay stable and keepinh things stable needs to be FIs aim
Geronimo159387 last edited by Geronimo159387
FI using EDD to slow down cash withdrawals over a certain amount.
I hope that FI resist this temptation, as besides being a disgraceful betrayal of trust, it will also cause long term reputational damage to the platform, that has the potential to be a world beating product. Future growth is largely dependent on the trust & confidence of both new & existing users & any underhand tactics, such as delaying withdrawals over spurious EDD claims, will simply destroy that fragile commodity, which is already in intensive care with many users, after several badly handled recent developments.
Any EDD checks should take place on deposit not months or even years after a user has joined & often built significant profits, which they should be free to withdraw.
Brane_Orsou last edited by
The problem is FI always seem to do something to readdress and dip rather than letting things level out naturally.
No point in having "football knowledge" if they create a spike in the market with offers. I agree with @Geronimo159387 that it would be nice to see FI leave things alone.
@Geronimo159387 No reputable firm would use EDD’s to slow down withdrawals. You only hear that with dodgy online casinos that end up going bust. There’s no truth that FI will do such a thing and if they did it would backfire with hugely negative press.
@TeamGB the EDD’s will be a major reason less people are depositing as well. For me EDD and customer service are the two areas in need of the most attention
Geronimo159387 last edited by Geronimo159387
Whilst I agree with what you say, it does appear that there's some evidence that it may have happened previously & when finally resolved the "customer" had to sign a NDA (non disclosure agreement) as part of the settlement, so the details are by definition rather sketchy.
As @Black-Wolf points out both CS & EDD are both areas that need significant improvements to reach levels of service that can be deemed acceptable.
I won't personally be depositing again, even if offered an attractive net spend bonus, as I simply don't need the hassle & unwarranted intrusion of further EDD checks, despite already passing them TWICE & whilst that may make no meaningful difference it can't help market growth, especially if replicated across other users.
ocs123 last edited by ocs123
It’s going to be an interesting month or so.
In theory, buy prices should: (a) surge upwards once the sell queues are cancelled; and then, (b) fall again as holders create sell bids to try to get out of unwanted holds.
It’s possible that our portfolios could be worth more than they are now if (a) is greater than (b). Or alternatively it could create a race to the bottom and losses, if (b) is greater than (a).
If they don’t cancel the sell queues and just automatically transfer those into sell orders at current price, then we’re all fucked and heavy losses are inevitable when other holders try to undercut the existing prices.
FI have managed their product so poorly over the last few months, they really need to tread carefully and not mess things up further. Particularly as goodwill amongst their customer base must be at an all time low.
The only negative aspect of the experience for me so far is the customer service. Really poor for a company of this size.
Will sell queues be cancelled though? Or will they just be converted to sell offers at the current market price, with a message coming that this is now set unless we cancel them ourselves?
ocs123 last edited by ocs123
Good question and I don’t think anyone knows the answer yet.
In my opinion it would a good idea to cancel them, because it will cause an uplift in value that could mitigate the subsequent falls. But who knows what will happen.
I have £2k ready to invest, but will wait to see how the next couple of days play out before doing so.
@ocs123 I can understand the scenarios you are describing here, although I wouldn’t pretend to know enough to try to predict what might happen. Surely FI will be trying to mitigate what feels like an inevitable negative consequence of the sell orders coming in, because if my port tanks there’s no way on this earth I put another penny in, and will be out ASAP? Assuming that’s the case, what can they do? Ramp up what they’ve already been doing by adding liquidity to the market themselves through the MMs? The ramp up of marketing spend suggests to me they know they’re going to lose a tonne of custom and will try to replace it post sell-orders with punters not acquainted with what has just happened to existing users? If that’s the play it’s a terrible one, because shit tends to stick, and so it should.
@ocs123 for some reason im sure they said they wouldn’t cancel sell queues when offers come in. What may happen is that everyone starts cancelling to jump to the front but as they do the price goes up because so many folk are delisting at once and then a kind of FOMO or greed sets in and traders will either list or wait and watch their holds rocket until deciding to list afterwards.
Basically even if FI dont clear the sell queues the traders will anyway
For me it is a shame that FI haven't managed to tie the OB release in with the new dividend structure.
I personally can't see how FI are going to bring out the order book without a significant surge in liquidity. Will this be by a market maker sweeping up shares automatically below a certain price?
My thought is that whatever happens FI need shares to change hands quickly. For me I can't see that happening without a 20% total purchase bonus as we have seen previously the longer time goes on the greater the chance if a race to the bottom. I don't feel 10%, especially with some of the lower prices players will do anything to bridge the gap.
I am planning unlist all my players up for sale prior to the announcement as it will be unlikely that they be snapped up at the current prices. It will then give me time to assess.
Surely it’ll only affect the low end of the market with people just wanting to get rid of the players they really don’t want. Any mid to top end players will only go up in price
Hotspur last edited by
@NewUser731 they are tieing it in though. The aim of the further div increase is surely to launch the sell orders into a buoyant market. They said ages ago that the tech was ready for sell orders, so I can only think the delay is due to them knowing that launching sell orders into a flat market, with sentiment already very low, would not be a very clever move.
@Ryan10 aren’t the longest sell queues for the premium players? They’re the ones people can sell for most and get at more money quicker.
Marksandygill last edited by
Daft question but why are people thinking prices will crash? From what I understand people will be able to set their asking price (within limit) and see what price bids are at, but why would that lead to prices going down?
I know if I sold my shares at the actual value they are worth I'd get about 12% less than on screen, but that doesn't mean I'd actually sell them at that price!?
@Hotspur exactly this. For anyone that hasn’t listen to LB on the latest FIG pod makes perfect sense.
I won’t do it justice explaining and for 90 mins of your life well worth a listen
@Marksandygill As the OP says, there will be a churn of people looking to leave the platform for good due to COVID who will sell up relatively cheap driving down sell order prices. That money also disappears from circulation, meaning less shares being traded and falling prices until we reach a new level. The dividend review is likely to be intended to encourage those staying to put more in and the big marketing push is to try to replace those who leave. That’s the theory anyway. If FI can add liquidity themselves through MM that might also mitigate the fall to a degree. Ultimately it’s going to be nearer to what our port is actually worth, than the inflated paper number we currently have. But FI really have to get it right, because if their model is off it could be FUBAR for a while.