"Ambitious" New Dividend Structure Predictions
Would anyone like to have a crack at guessing what the "ambitious" new div structure is going to be?
I personally think that FI have a completely different view on what is ambitious compared to the average forum/ Twitter trader, and we saw this play out with the summer div structure announced where traders were predicting 100% rises and then were flabbergasted when the increases were only a few pence.
Once again, I dont expect we will be seeing any ridiculous boosts to the top PB prizes, though we may see something small like star man gold day raising by another 2p.
I think what we are more likely to see is changes to Media Buzz and IPD. FI mentioned that they have listened to feedback on the previous dividend announcement, and I think what they mean by that is that the feedback on TOTM has been mostly positive. I expect them to continue to find ways to spread out ways of winning as traders are much happier when they are getting even small wins, so my predictions are:
Media Buzz permanently extended to 3 places on match days.
IPD values increased: 3p for a goal (5p for defenders), assist, clean sheet and penalty save
1p increases to Bronze and Silver PB wins, 2p increase to Gold PB wins
Please share your own theories and predictions so we can all have a good laugh when we are completely wrong.
Erased Citizen last edited by
@DillyDong I don’t think you’ll be too far off with that prediction. I also think there might be some early indications on mechanisms to renew shares for IPDs.
I've thought long and hard about IPD's (I'm in favour of them increasing) but whilst they're doing 5x until the end of September - I'm not sure if saying they'll be 2x from September onwards will be received positively. Quite a drop 3p per goal - I think they'll keep an IPD increase up their sleeves probably after this promotion has ended and the eyes aren't on IPD's.
I think majority of the increase will come on individual position wins - 15p a gold day, 8p a silver day, 5p a bronze day.
Star player to 10p gold, 5p silver and remain 2p for bronze.
Not sure about Media - permanent 3 places would be good though.
@Erased-Citizen I can't see a clear path for FI to increase IPD's without implementing something new, 2% comission will not cover the potential payout risk.
Very interested to see what they do implement if they permantley increase IPD'S.
@DillyDong i think it has to be a big increase as they need to not just please everyone but have every single person singing their praises to raise sentiment to a level that allows the order book transition to go flawlessly. I small increase my only please people for a short period that may not last until the day of the Nasdaq release
The lack of a market suspension makes me think it has to be an increase across the board to prevent moving value from one area to another
I think you're all wrong, the announcement said an ambitious new dividend chart not another dividend review.
So I'm expecting change of fonts, font sizes and shade of colours, nothing else
Given how low-key this announcement is compared to previous dividend review launch campaigns, I think anyone building themselves up for big changes is going to be disappointed and fairly so.
Nothing about their messaging for this announcement says its going to be huge, so I'm expecting a slight nudge in increases, but nothing major, and certainly less than the previous announcement.
It would really help if they were clearer with their phrasing, rather than dropping in ambiguous words like ambitious, which could equally mean doubling dividends or a 1p increase across the board.
@Black-Wolf I agree it needs to be a big increase, but I get the impression that FI actually consider a 2p increase to PB wins is a big increase, after all, a 2p increase to a normal 10p win is a 20% increase in dividens paid out!! So I just have the feeling that we're not in the same page as FI when they are looking over the numbers. That 2p increase may end up being millions of pounds more for them to pay out.
@DillyDong my biggest worry is that they increase everything but keepers although they will still be good value. The reason for my concern is that surely they decided those keeper payouts in line with what they were willing to payout everywhere else at the time so if they want increase other areas now they surely need to increase keepers as well
@Black-Wolf or The keeper payouts were already based on the payouts we are expecting tomorrow? They are just drip feeding the announcements to keep everyone interested? Maybe that's why the announcement before was not really beneficial to anyone apart from keepers? They get more commission from people jumping from one announcement to another?
Does anyone see this TOTM is currently NOT ambitious?
The 3p, 2p, and 1p return for 7 players (out of 11) are ridiculous. Just think that your player, getting in the "prestigious" TOTM, and returns a massive 1p!
@Number5 possibly but not a very good way to do it. They could have just announced keepers and team of the month without a dividend review if that was the case. I honestly think FI were in a period of uncertainty with COVID and only offered us as much as they saw safe to do so. Whatever was going on behind the scenes seems like it may of passed now so they feel that its safe to offer bigger payouts
I doubt there will be any massive change in the proportions, as there is no market downtime. However, this is the kind of thing I think could be realistic:
- Bronze Days media payouts for top 3 of 3p-2p-1p.
- Bronze Days increased to 3p position (2p star remains)
- Silver Days increased to 6p position (4p star remains)
- Gold days left as is, as are GK payments above.
- IPDs remain as is for players over £1 on day of purchase, but payments increased to 2p/3p (from 1p/2p) for players £1 or under on day of purchase.
- TOTM remains the same.
Yeah it's pretty poor. I have roughly
all sitting in TOTM spots right now and I think I roughly calculated I will be getting about ~ £35 in payout at the end of the month. Its massively weighted to getting that #1 spot so obviously if my Bruno shares were paying out for top midfielder it would be looking very different.
As TOTM is right now it's nothing more than a nice bonus for consistency.
@Black-Wolf To be honest they were just questions that came to my mind...I haven't been here long enough to know how FI work with regards to their announcements and whether they would do something that they know they could benefit financially. E.g. imagine the commissions that will have been paid out and will be paid out in the space of just over a month as everyone adjusts their ports to the announcement.
I haven't had a chance to look at the spreads and to see if there is a pattern in the ones that have large spreads, but I think whatever the div increase will be - it will be to target these players and close the gap between the spreads, before they release the sale offers, so that when they come out peoples profiles don't crash. I am assuming the players value will now be calculated based on the highest offer?
Seeing very low bids and offers will cause panic and people will all follow each other to get out as soon as, and there will be ridiculous prices out there. If you trust the platform stability, then this will also be a great opportunity to pick up players at ridiculously low prices before the market stabilizes in a couple of months.
Die Eisernen last edited by
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Splurger_Dan last edited by
I have it on good authority that it will be £1 star man for gold days
@Splurger_Dan I would immediately empty my bank account and purchase as many Messi's as possible if even it was half that much!
Toptom last edited by
Ambitious to me hints at a change to structure rather than a pure rise in the base rates, which other verbiage would be more appropriate. This I feel is also evidenced in the introduction of the GK and TOTM in the last review, both have been stated would not happen.
As a result my guess would be something along the lines of :
Separate out the main leagues so players only compete in league
Introduce more leagues (make more players more relevant just like GK) Championship, Portugal Netherlands spring to mind.
Make IPD either longer or 5p permanently, The last promo shown how it can get the market more liquid as people hold for 30 days rather than 3 years.
Something else they have said they are not going to implement but LP01 knows is coming!!!
I have it on good authority that it will be £1 star man for gold days
Well my neighbours brothers best mates wifes work colleague let slip that if a player wins 3 positional pb in a season theyll give you your initial stake back as well as letting you keep the shares for 7 years