Pure PB analysis - follow up

  • Following up on my last post on PB analysis, I have further split down now and analysed by matchday type. Sharing as this might be of interest for those new to FI, to see some relationship between age, price and highlighting where PB isn't the predominant driver for price! Will hopefully all change after 5pm and yields will go through the roof 🙏🏼

    As before, this is based on expected dividends for the 2019/20 data (upto and incl CL and EL qtr finals) excl the competition multiplier.


    • calculate PB winning quartiles by position by matchday type
    • use number of PB winning scores as percentage of PB scores in that quartile to calc a 'win% chance'
    • look at number of PB scores in each quartile for every player
    • multiply win% x # player PB scores x current dividend structure

    Result: an expected number of dividends per player (PBp) for last season's games - i.e. not the actual divs but an expected div calc, attempting to remove the variance factor.

    These are pure PB matchday dividends and exclude star man, TOTM, IPDs and Media.

    Now time for a huge spreadsheet of info and colour with top 25 in each position: 🤮


    For info, star man obviously has a big impact, especially on Mids and Fwds where divs above could increase 30-40%. Star Man breakdown:


    Way too many factors to trade off just this analysis - Gaston Ramirez looking like a good point in case - but hopefully of interest nonetheless.

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