The Horse V GOAT Challenge



  • Will Messi Leave the Horse destitute?
    or will the Horse prevail?

    I have gone against my usual trading instincts and let FOMO guide me on this trade
    Yesterday ,I set aside 5% of my port in order to get on board the Messi train before he sails off into the American Sunset.

    My target is to ignore his Price and to recoup 100% in dividends during my 3 year hold which started yesterday.

    This is not in anyway a thread to entice others to take a similar challenge up but more aimed at a fun thread in what will be a journey to either the Shithouse or Glory.

    Day 1 results below
    fbed9c95-f200-4253-9cde-520a404ffe51-image.png

    A brisk start for the Horse who sees himself over 3 pence ahead of the curve at the end of day 1 with day 2 looking promising as he settles nicely into 2nd place for hopefully another 4p divs.

    The table below is my rationale behind why i think this target is achievable whilst at the same time fully appreciating the potential pitfalls that may befall the ageing GOAT over the next 1095 days (1094 now)...

    5328c841-6960-4a49-98bc-e7cf94d0a33a-image.png



  • @Advinculas-Index nice predictions there. You’ve been conservative also in your estimations. All aboard!! 🐐 🚂 🤑 🥳



  • Love it 👌🏼

    Messi is a great hold whatever, especially on a matchday, it's what it is all about. If he does move to City I think he will outstrip your media div profile and pay back handsomely.

    Will you be tempted to cash in if he hits £10 or close to?



  • @TotalPunt

    Ill play it by ear...I go from hour to hour questioning the sanity of this trade getting on so late but as you say, he is probably the most fun hold on the index and it only 5% of my port so if it does go tits up it wont be the end of the world

    • the nature of the bet is that as time goes on, my liability reduces with every div won as its based on the assumption that he will be worthless by the end of it so as it stands today - that 5% is now 4.9999%....


  • @Advinculas-Index Really interesting, thanks for sharing this and look forward to reading more about your journey. Sorry if I've missed it but did you market buy or use ME at all?



  • @Advinculas-Index what price did you board at? I’m average £6.04 with 607 shares myself.

    Ps that version of ‘little wing’ in your profile is epic mate! 🎸 🤩



  • @FootballArgos

    I got some at £7.85 at Market price yesterday when he was going through the ticker and then some at £7.50 bringing the average down to £7,77



  • @Sol

    The pic on that You tube vid is Hendrix but you can tell after the first few notes its SRV.



  • I think The Horse has got this firmly under control. Unless Becher's Brook gets him I can see him romping home by at least thirty lengths. The GOAT may even get pulled up leaving The Horse to take the glory.

    Perhaps the real question is whether The Horse will be able to secure his legacy against the ageing Neymar in their contest scheduled to start in late 2023/early 2024.



  • @Boris999 said in The Horse V Messi Challenge:

    I think The Horse has got this firmly under control. Unless Becher's Brook gets him I can see him romping home by at least thirty lengths. The GOAT may even get pulled up leaving The Horse to take the glory.

    Perhaps the real question is whether The Horse will be able to secure his legacy against the ageing Neymar in their contest scheduled to start in late 2023/early 2024.

    I have 500 Neighmars alas i doubt whether he will still be in as much demand as Messi at 33



  • I love a challenge, especially one backed up by maths,

    I will follow with interest and hope you nail it.

    Good luck



  • When do you think Messi next plays a game though?



  • Hopefully September but i know no better than you or anyone else on here



  • Worth noting too that dividends rise on a periodic basis. I would imagine we will see multiple dividend increases in that time, and a share split (which for holders increases divs too), so even as Messi slows down, the number of divs required to meet your targets shrink too.

    I won't be on the Messi train but it seems like those who will be, could be in for a wild adventure.



  • @Dan-The-Man i was imagining that if they split the shares then they would cut the divs accordingly



  • @jonathan-rolfe said in The Horse V GOAT Challenge:

    @Dan-The-Man i was imagining that if they split the shares then they would cut the divs accordingly

    They do...

    I can't remember the exact figures off hand but the way it worked last time, say you had 100 Messi before the split, you ended up with 300 Messi after the split. And say the dividend was 8p for a gold day win, the new gold day win became 3p.

    • Pre-Split: 100 x 8p = £8
    • Post-Split: 300 x 3p = £9

    Holders were effectively getting a dividend increase.

    That's not to say the same will happen again but I think it's likely that every 3 years there'll be a split in order to keep player prices low enough for new comers.



  • @Dan-The-Man @jonathan-rolfe I wasnt about at the time of the share split but I seem to recall reading that the shares were split by 3 and the divs split by 2, essentially giving a 50% div increase



  • @Dan-The-Man thanks to you and DDr for this info. very interesting. didnt realise they were so generous



  • Day 2

    Another 4p takes the horse through the 1% barrier

    5c9f6be4-189f-46c7-80f8-fad3eadd72b9-image.png



  • @Ddr said in The Horse V GOAT Challenge:

    @Dan-The-Man @jonathan-rolfe I wasnt about at the time of the share split but I seem to recall reading that the shares were split by 3 and the divs split by 2, essentially giving a 50% div increase

    I could be wrong but I don't think was quite 50%. I seem to remember it being closer to 30%, but I've slept since, so you might be right.

    Whilst it was a decent win for holders... new people coming to the platform could only see the current price of players and the current dividend pay out. It lead to a lot of posts like "Why would I pay £8 for Pogba to win 3p".

    Bear in mind, Pogba had gone from something like £10 to £24 in the space of 4 months, driven by the share split fomo, his battle with Mourinho, etc, so even after the split he was massively over inflated. Never the less, another dividend increase came soon after.


Log in to reply