Be brave Thursday.....who's with me?



  • Forget Messigate.

    The rocket is Balegate.

    Who's with me brothers and sisters?

    726f76c5-fe33-462e-8f8f-9fa4bf6872e8-image.png

    Bid depth:

    1 @ £1.88
    10 @ £1.88
    50 @ £1.83
    100 @ £1.82
    150 @ £1.81
    200 @ £1.79
    300 @ £1.77
    49d391d7-128f-4c2d-a1e7-510dc8759f6b-image.png

    I'm going well low lol :-)



  • @Millerman

    Plenty of nice golf courses in Miami so unless he ends up in a PB league, which seems increasing unlikely (given he's been available for the best part of 4/5 windows & still hasn't happened), it might be described as a foolhardy punt rather than brave!

    If anyone genuinely does believe he could represent value & earn £2 or even £1.40 in career dividends I would be very interested to see their breakdown of how?



  • @Geronimo159387 I'm not putting a lot into him, just a bit of fun to be honest - a little feeling inside me says he's coming to the Prem.......



  • @Geronimo159387

    Could you see a return to Spurs?



  • Good luck with that one - I'm quite surprised there are sell orders that high on him to be honest.

    If he is available on a free then there will be plenty of rumours circulating, given his previous strong links to China i'd be selling off the back of the first spike.



  • With a concrete link to the prem I would just buy full price to be honest.



  • @Baydog said in Be brave Thursday.....who's with me?:

    Could you see a return to Spurs?

    No; Levy won't pay the sort of wages he'd want, Beckham would at Inter Miami to have the Marquee "face of the franchise." China boat has already sailed IMO so MLS seems the obvious destination but whereever he goes I wouldn't risk £2 or even £1.40 as it looks a one way bet IMHO, especially with the full OB's about to land.



  • This post is deleted!


  • @Geronimo159387

    Bizarrely I have seen several people buying him in small quantities on the ticker today. The Spurs return would be massive news, but unless Madrid are willing to pay off half his contract or cover 50% - 70% of his wages then I cannot see it happening



  • @Baydog

    Happens every transfer window & tbf I might have been tempted to "play the rumour" & milk the price rise if we still operated under the old market system. We don't however, so with no (FI backed) IS safety net, uncertain MS liquidity & full OB's on the horizon (where a players price will reflect ACTUAL market demand/supply) buying him now is a MASSIVE risk for negligible potential return IMO. I would rate it 90/10% a losing trade, maybe even higher, even if he did end up in EPL (or any other PB league for that matter) I still see it as a loser, so will be filed under the don't touch with a bargepole for me.



  • @Millerman

    He was footing it to China last year... tread very carefully mate but good luck.



  • @Geronimo159387 said in Be brave Thursday.....who's with me?:

    @Baydog

    Happens every transfer window & tbf I might have been tempted to "play the rumour" & milk the price rise if we still operated under the old market system. We don't however, so with no (FI backed) IS safety net, uncertain MS liquidity & full OB's on the horizon (where a players price will reflect ACTUAL market demand/supply) buying him now is a MASSIVE risk for negligible potential return IMO. I would rate it 90/10% a losing trade, maybe even higher, even if he did end up in EPL (or any other PB league for that matter) I still see it as a loser, so will be filed under the don't touch with a bargepole for me.

    This post sums up how transfer windows are going to be a different tack under the OB system.

    The safety net under the previous IS system would be 90 - 95% of your stake back on most players. If they were linked to a non PB then often FI would widen the spread a bit, but it was still pretty reasonable. I have a few holds who are getting linked with non PB leagues, and the spread on them is huge or non existent.

    From what I have seen thus far, when a player is confirmed to a non PB league the market markers are buying back to FI at about 50% - 60% of market value (lowest point of bid zone). Until they are confirmed the spread seems to be dictated by the market, and once it is confirmed the market makers put the low offers in in high volume.

    I don't know if it is as straightforward as saying there is an added 30 - 50% risk on each bet placed, but in-terms of the FI backed get out, I would expect to see 30% - 50% less back of my stake than I would under the old system if the trade goes south.

    There will still be a get out, but you really have to weigh things up on how you trade transfer windows under the order book system. The stinger is often it can be unexpected - I bought Gaston Ramirez last week and now this week linked with the Middle East... It may be better waiting for the start of the season and windows being closed in a lot of cases before investing, you'll be paying more money for less risk I guess



  • I've placed an semi optimistic bid for some, which if it isn't matched soon, will be going back into an existing hold. He will have a Euros Campaign with Wales assuming he isn't injured and may pick up some MB along the way there, but certainly wouldn't throw too much at him.



  • @Baydog

    As a fellow Gaston Ramirez holder I share your pain! Even after the dividend announcement (which was fantastic & really should have been the one they announced in the first place) to say the market is flying & liquidity is returning is still only relevant for a very small section of the 3000+ players in the market. I have PB league players that are first team regulars that have been listed for MS for over 6 months & whilst I'm in no great rush to sell it demonstrates that some (very decent) holds are still virtually impossible to market sell without taking a MASSIVE, often 50%+ IS hit.

    So speculating on inherently more risky transfer punts under the current market conditions is potential suicide, even the GOAT took a £1.50 overnight IS dive & he is far from a bad hold. OB's will almost certainly see some significant price corrections on many players so unless you are absolutely certain about the potential success of a transfer trade I would agree currently cash is king & buying after a confirmed move is likely to be a safer strategy than before it happens.



  • @Geronimo159387

    I think I still have an appetite for risk - but on a much smaller scale than I would previously have done on transfer players. I took a punt on Miranchuk at 81p, the cost of which made up around 0.2% of my port value. Under the previous IS with links as strong as the ones he was getting (and with his profile and the team he was joining), I'd have staked perhaps 3% - 5% of my port value.

    I now tend not to put more than 1 - 2% into any one player, most are less than 1%, That said I chucked 4% of my total port value at established PB hero Memphis Depay, he bags a hatrick and a few days later gets links to PSG - sure dampened that party pretty quickly!



  • My postman says (who delivers to Mr & Mrs Bale Srn) that Gareth Bale won't move to a none PB league as he's a nice homely lad who wants to come back to dear old blighty 😐



  • I made a lot of CA last year summer on him, but not getting back on. He's admitted he's happy to continue to practice his golf swing. His family are happy in Espana and no one will pay his £600k/wk wages.


Log in to reply