The effect of 5 subs on PB scores of top players in Premier League, La Liga, Serie A & Bundesliga!



  • With a lot of talk about which leagues will stick with 5 subs for the 2020/21 season I have tried to do some kind of analysis on how this affects the PB scores of players. Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga have already agreed to adopt the 5 subs for the new season. The Premier League have rejected it and Serie A and La Liga are still to decide. Using IndexGain data I compare the average minutes played, when starting the match (5 or more matches) and the average PB score for players over the last 90 days (covering the restart and 5 subs period) vs the whole of the 2019/20 season when starting the match. I appreciate there are some variables and I have some players have changed position and club over the season and since the end of the season. But on the whole I think it gives a good idea of the impact that 5 subs have on certain players. I have only included players who played on average 80mins or less since the restart. This is my first piece of research so be gentle and any feedback is much appreciated and any questions you might have?
    Defenders:
    Least affected category I think, probably because I would imagine they are the least substituted category in general. But as you can see those that were losing the most game time generally had the biggest drop off in PB. I appreciate Gurreiro was a Mid for most of the season.
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    Midfielders:
    Generally the same trend where players that lost the most minutes had the biggest drop off in PB. Odegaard, Sabitzer and Pellegrini stand out. Hakan Calhanoglu was a big anomaly, averaging 8 mins less but scoring 30pts on average more. What I will say about this is that his early substitution did actually hinder him from making some even higher scores post restart and potentially winning some more PB.
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    Forwards:
    Seem to have been the most affected category, nearly all the players had a PB drop off and some real big differences in average minutes played. Rodrygo, Adama, Pepe & Firmino stand out for me.
    c6b14ebd-53fd-470e-92f2-287f95ca2c36-image.png



  • @FI_Gump
    good post
    GKs will be the least affected category though i suspect



  • Problem is the games after the restart were all kinds of messed up anyway, I'd say wait until next season to draw any conclusions!
    I mean look at Liverpools results knowing that they'd pretty much won and say city's knowing they couldn't win!
    When there's more to play for there could be less subs or more committed performances!?



  • @Marksandygill I agree, the Pep Guardiola selection lottery is a nightmare! I just wanted to give a bit of preview of the effects to players in those leagues who choose to keep the 5 subs for 2020/21. I think this issue could still have a massive impact, especially for the top teams in these leagues. When Bayern for example are running through a team by midway through the second half, with Champions league the following midweek then they are likely to want to rotate, meaning some guys who are on for top PB scores might get hooked. Will be frustrating I think.



  • @FI_Gump Agreed, on many occasions I saw players being subbed at 60 minutes which very rarely used to happen!
    You'd find maybe a couple at 70-75 mins and then maybe the last sub about 80-90mins?

    Rather annoyingly Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga have the 2 most dominant teams and I hope this doesn't screw that up!!



  • @Marksandygill Unfortunately I think it will have an effect, certainly on Bayern. PSG maybe not so much on Neymar as he seems a bit like Messi in that he will play the whole 90 as long as he is fit. Mbappe should be fine but he generally needs as many mins as possible to compete with Neymar for PB when both playing.


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