The Reason For The Massive Drops - recovery comes with NASDAQ!



  • I was under the impression that when sell orders came in, we could see the number of shares for sale at each price point, and undercut sensibly if we desired. But that is only going to be possible when Nasdaq comes in, so we are flying blind until then unfortunately.

    So right now, let's say Pogba is priced at £6 and there are 10,000 shares up for sale at that bottom price - it only takes one maverick trader to come in with a crazy low bid of 300 shares at £5 and BAM the price drops by a quid!! Before anyone gobbles up those shares (which would revert the price back to £6), other traders panic and list at £4.99, £4.95 etc. and a price avalanche happens. This will be what has happened over the last 2 days.

    Once Nasdaq gets involved, we will be able to see that the "true" price of Pogba in this instance is £6 (based on the large volume of sell orders at that price) and will realise its only one maniac who has listed at £5. Nobody will panic sell at this point, in fact the opposite - people will panic BUY, trying to get those Pogba's at £1 discount!

    Until then, this current order book system fails to represent true value at all and can be very misleading. Only needing an average of 300 shares at the lowest price to move it to that price is bonkers!

    But that's where we are at right now. If you are a seller, bear this in mind. It's very much a buyers market right now :)



  • Your issue is that assumes that lots of offers on a player. Pogba defo great optamistic play. What about a prospect player like Max. When people see that theirs only 20 offers at 20p people gonna take it before they miss out completely. The full transparency will only help the market if ALL players have LOTS of buy and sell offers!



  • @Toptom said in The Reason For The Massive Drops - recovery comes with NASDAQ!:

    Your issue is that assumes that lots of offers on a player. Pogba defo great optamistic play. What about a prospect player like Max. When people see that theirs only 20 offers at 20p people gonna take it before they miss out completely. The full transparency will only help the market if ALL players have LOTS of buy and sell offers!

    I don't quite see your point mate - my point is, we see Pogba at £5, then we are supposed to think thats what he is "worth". But its just one sell order at £5 dragging it to that price, with 10,000 sell orders next in line at his "proper" price of £6

    What are you getting at mate? I'm confused



  • @ScouseSte I am saying it works when pogba has 10,000 offers at 6.00

    But when you look at other players that only have 10 offers on the entire market its gonna crash the price as people rush to take the few offers available. Its a much bigger crash...



  • @Toptom said in The Reason For The Massive Drops - recovery comes with NASDAQ!:

    @ScouseSte I am saying it works when pogba has 10,000 offers at 6.00

    But when you look at other players that only have 10 offers on the entire market its gonna crash the price as people rush to take the few offers available. Its a much bigger crash...

    If you can physically see that there are only 10 or 20 sell offers at really low prices, then that tells you the player is probably shit and valued appropriately mate.

    My point is, I can put a sell order in for 300 Jadon Sancho now at £13 if i want, and that would cause blind panic for the few seconds it was there (somebody would gobble it up very quickly!)
    There must be a few thousand listed at £15.20, so my 300 at £13 should not really be able to impact the price. But under this blind order book system it does, and it misrepresents players values

    Get it mate?



  • I think your really miss-understanding the basic economics at play here... But feel free to analyse the market however you like, I have already explained the reality of what will happen to the market :)



  • @Toptom said in The Reason For The Massive Drops - recovery comes with NASDAQ!:

    I think your really miss-understanding the basic economics at play here... But feel free to analyse the market however you like, I have already explained the reality of what will happen to the market :)

    Can you try again please mate - use some examples and detail because i dont understand



  • @Toptom said in The Reason For The Massive Drops - recovery comes with NASDAQ!:

    I think your really miss-understanding the basic economics at play here... But feel free to analyse the market however you like, I have already explained the reality of what will happen to the market :)

    I think you may have taken offence for some reason mate - genuinely don't understand your point/example. I would appreciate a clearer explanation if you can help me out here?



  • @ScouseSte Agree with this and there's a similar debate happening on Twitter.

    Also, shouldn't 'value' be the average of all bids, or the highest and the lowest?

    We also need to factor in market makers here, who can presumably put in sell offers as well as buy? Make of that what you will....



  • @Metropolis said in The Reason For The Massive Drops - recovery comes with NASDAQ!:

    @ScouseSte Agree with this and there's a similar debate happening on Twitter.

    Also, shouldn't 'value' be the average of all bids, or the highest and the lowest?

    We also need to factor in market makers here, who can presumably put in sell offers as well as buy? Make of that what you will....

    Lots of sub-plots mate

    But what we are definitely establishing is these order books are not quite the holy grail just yet. Its a bit like when only bids were implemented - we will have to make do for now.

    I now realise why they have been making such a hoo-har about Nasdaq. I thought it was just for the name. Its actually very bloody important!!



  • @Metropolis Isn’t the idea with the ‘buy it now price’, that you are always seeing the cheapest available shares you can purchase? This seems like a good thing. There is no motivation/reward for a trader to deliberately put in a sell order at the bottom of the order zone as 1)On anyone decent it will be brought quickly and return to the next lowest bid 2) they will have lost a wedge selling below where they could have done otherwise. So it balances well that buy it now is the lowest sell order and IS is the highest buy order.



  • @ScouseSte I wouldn't imagine it's that difficult to display the bid depth on the app. Matching the bids is the hard part which they've done.

    The real test will be when the goals start flying in tomorrow. There could be some huge rebounds in prices and a few regrets listing at such low prices. Pogbas lost £1.70ish for example. Wouldn't take much for the low bids to be swallowed up and off he goes!



  • @Metropolis and if all those sell orders get eaten up, is that when FI start issuing new shares again? And the price continues to rise per however many are brought?



  • @NewUser412886 Nah FI will only issue shares again once the price rises above the point where the player was at when they implemented the system. i.e. just before implementation if a players price was 6.00 then FI will issue shares from 6.01 onwards, before that you are buying from another user



  • @NewUser412886 You're not wrong, but a few issues here

    1. We use 'Buy Now' prices for our portfolio value so naturally it's read as what a player is worth. If 10,000 shares are listed by 500 traders at £5, and a single trader puts 300 up for sale at £4, the true value is not £4
    2. Allowing single traders to determine the 'By Now' price independently opens it up to manipulation
    3. The general consensus is that this encourages undercutting which is causing prices to drop further and further. A single trader putting in a low offer encourages lower offers and so forth
    4. In extreme cases, you could see huge spikes and volatility if there are exceptionally low offers. Maybe not a bad thing but doesn't look good on the surface and high risk


  • @Chris-C thanks, makes sense. As if everything in the sell queue is eaten up then he would be back at peak price I guess. Or if everyone delists same outcome 👍



  • I have said it already I expect there to be a bounce back and I expect it to be quite quick once all of the games are up and running..

    It is unnerving to see the big drops. To regain confidence we need to see that the rises can and will happen just as quickly - and that will only really come with games. FI know this which is why they have done it all on the eve of the football season along with all of the promos.



  • @NewUser412886 correct



  • @Metropolis i definitely see where you are coming from, I guess if people were desperately trying to sell a player and someone had put in a rock bottom Sell order, then they may feel they had to match it, which would drive it down. But it’s hard to see that happening with anyone who is even slightly in demand, as people would notice the sudden change and be buying it in a flash and it buy now would bounce back up.



  • @NewUser412886 I guess it's also panic setting in which is driving prices down. That has to be the reason some are now putting in sell offers for less than yesterday's IS price!!!

    Looks like people are slowly realising there are some bargains out there now, but buying into a dropping market is always risky and takes a certain level of courage.

    Give it time, rational thinking will prevail and we'll start to see the lower offers either removed or bought into.


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