How is everyone feeling about their trading prospects?



  • Good morning everyone,

    It is fair to say yesterday was my best ever dividend haul. Nearly 1% of my port cost paid out in divs this morning 😂😂 That said, it is also roughly the same amount that my port value has shrunk since yesterday, so it is not all good...

    This extraordinary IPD promotion is creating a boom bust effect on player prices that is going to last a couple of weeks. There are crazy knock on effects as traders are selling holds to buy in play. I can say this with confidence as I was doing the same. I sold my 100 shares in Timo Werner to buy 750 Andy Delort. Madness but I am playing what is in front of me.

    As expected my buddy Andy Delort is now available 15% - 20% cheaper than what I paid for him yesterday. He is currently 12p down on buy now price and a whopping 24p spread to IS price from what I paid (85p). That is fairly irrelevant if I consider when my exit point is to be. They have 3 more matches in 5x IPD and one in normal IPD in my 30 days.

    The choice I have is to sell if/when he scores again and forfeit the big IPDs,, or keep him for one, two or three further games to see if I can win more at the risk getting lumbered with him at an over inflated price beyond the IPD promo window. It is a risky business, but I expect his buy now price and spread to move in line with the price I paid on game days. If I can get out at break even (85p) then it will be a good trade given the £150 paid out in divs on him yesterday... I have a similar thing with all of my IPD purchases yesterday, they are all down on the price I paid, but it is not a concern as I can predict when the prices will come back to what I paid in most cases.

    What is very clear is that there is going to be a huge level of volatility especially over the next two weeks. Aubayemang for example went into the game at around £2.65. Having scored he had dropped back down to around £2.30 and the IS price was at £2.17 (which is what I paid at the beginning of the week before his 40p+ price surge.)

    This must be a hard one for new and experienced members to get their head around. It is hard to say if this would have happened without the IPD x5 promo running. We have laughed at traders ISing at losses after matches, this is probably the same thing happening now. People willing to take losses to move on to the next thing.

    300 shares being listed at a loss will make everyone look at a loss until the shares sell and the price moves up. It's unnerving but the reality is that until we have market depth our port values are at the mercy of people looking to sell on the cheap, and the subsequent knock on effects of others panicking when they see the drops in port value and also list because of this.

    Personally I am going to completely ignore my port value for much of the time, which is something I do anyway. I check it maybe once a day, now I will look at it once a week. Clearly the numbers are going to move around a lot, and this is not dissimilar to when I first joined the Dex in April 18.

    Back then it only took 100 shares being purchased to sold to move the price 1p either way. Player values could go up or down a quid within a few minutes, so I am used to seeing these kind of fluctuations in individual players. It can be exciting and unnerving in equal quantities, but I do expect it to settle down.

    The feeling that I have reflects what Mick said in another thread yesterday. I think once the IPD promo is over the money and stability will be in the good PB holds (who should also be decent media holds in many cases for linked reasons with the incoming media review making it more performance based). I am going to keep/IPD refresh my keepers and my solid holds during the IPD window if the opportunities arise and then just leave them alone as my med-long holds which should see stability and growth.

    The IPDs are going to still be generous at 2p per goal and assist and 4p goal for defenders, so I still expect there to be a fair bit of volatility in the sub £1.50 market market post the promo, and I think they are going to provide good opportunities for refreshing shares and playing the fixture lists short term.

    For this reason I am going 25% short trading and 75% med - long trading as a split in my port. I set it up with most recent purchases at the top, and that is where all my short players sit and I largely ignore the rest beneath for several months at a time...

    The med/long term game is definitely still there, growth and generous yields should come to all areas of the platform with the new divs, so I think it will still suit passive traders like myself who like to sit back and watch. The volatility will provide a lot of opportunities for short trading, so I think ignoring that part would be a missed opportunity and I am willing to experiment with a section of my port.

    What are other traders thinking? Stick with existing ports / strategies, or is the new system making you think twice about your approach or the platform in general?



  • @Baydog I love your long posts as I can read it while the kettle boils!

    But seriously you are bang on, I’m ignoring my port value; in fact I’d love a function to turn it off.

    I still have some stinky bets and the chance of getting out in profit currently are zero; but I will I’m sure of that Over the remaining 2 years.

    In the mean time I’m making new money daily and the paper profit will return over the next 6-12 months.



  • yeah crazy amounts of volatility yesterday but its good for day trading. I had some fun with it and made some small profitable trades.



  • @Baydog

    There will be people who end up with a port full of Jeff Hendricks, Andros Townsend, Paddy Bamford etc etc who will absolutely smash the divs this month but will have a truly awful looking port come 1/10 when the focus switched back to PB, and everybody wants TAA, KDB, Kimmich and Neymar who they dumped to buy some 36 year old centre half from Cadiz who popped up with his first goal in 7 years during a massive IPD promotion.

    I mean if you got on somebody like Salah yesterday after his first goal then your laughing because hes a good hold and you've got a really substantial initial yield from him. Or if somebody like Matt Doherty or Marquinhos pop up with a goal today then I really couldnt fault anybody for filling their boots cos theyll still be valuable when the IPDs are back to normal, but for goodness sake dont be dumping Hakimi or Dybala today just because Kieran Gibbs is through on goal. Its gonna look a very poor decision in 3 weeks time



  • @Baydog jesus mate, any longer this will be classed as a short book 😉!. Love it, nothing has changed for me tbh, I'll still trade as before,i have a very diverse port and buy players for long term, short term IPD and youngsters.



  • @MickTurbo said in How is everyone feeling about their trading prospects?:

    @Baydog

    There will be people who end up with a port full of Jeff Hendricks, Andros Townsend, Paddy Bamford etc etc who will absolutely smash the divs this month but will have a truly awful looking port come 1/10 when the focus switched back to PB, and everybody wants TAA, KDB, Kimmich and Neymar who they dumped to buy some 36 year old centre half from Cadiz who popped up with his first goal in 7 years during a massive IPD promotion.

    I mean if you got on somebody like Salah yesterday after his first goal then your laughing because hes a good hold and you've got a really substantial initial yield from him. Or if somebody like Matt Doherty or Marquinhos pop up with a goal today then I really couldnt fault anybody for filling their boots cos theyll still be valuable when the IPDs are back to normal, but for goodness sake dont be dumping Hakimi or Dybala today just because Kieran Gibbs is through on goal. Its gonna look a very poor decision in 3 weeks time

    Bang on again @MickTurbo. It’s a dangerous game chasing divs and flipping, especially in the current market and if they’re not proven or regular PB winners how will you sell them?

    I’m happy that I don’t have anyone in my port that I’m currently looking to sell. The first will probably be Di Maria around February time. While the rest are long term holds and are all proven PB winners with the odd youngster in their who has everything in their favour to become a PB winner (Aouchiche, etc).

    I’m sitting back now with all my main PB hitters refreshed for the remaining IPD bonus. I’m just going to let the divs roll in and then reinvested them in topping up my current holds. While the market settles around me and hopefully FI change the buy price algorithm.



  • @Erased-Citizen I'm in a similar position to u. I've got no more than 2 or 3 I'm looking to exit but spreads are still fairly unfavourable so I suppose somebody like Matt Doherty with a goal would be a great way to absorb them hits and exit bad holds for a decent hold in the process but I'd either have to sell now and hope he got a goal, or sell my bad holds and then get on Doherty, but in the time it takes me to do that, the cap app hes seen would likely out weigh the 20p IPD. There are other ways of course, sell now and wait for an in and out which is bound to crop up somewhere today, which may actually be the smart play, but I think I'm just gonna leave things alone and just see what comes my way



  • Feeling a bit uncertain at the moment but having joined just before the pandemic hit, I've adapted to no football, the restart, and ME so I'm hoping to figure this out eventually! The speed and size of volatility is genuinely quite scary at the mo,
    within a few hours VVD hit £2.80ish then dropped 50p and a similar case with Zaha peaking at £2.08 and now settling at £1.70ish, seems wise to avoid trying to get on players unless you're early. (Or late, I suppose!)



  • A lot of decent ipd players are still a lot cheaper than they were last year with half the divs on offer!
    Just thinking about patience and not get sucked in to Ising.



  • @MickTurbo @Erased-Citizen

    It is a savage garden the IPD X5 game with order books, but played right the opportunities are pretty outrageous. As you boys say, there is going to be a fine line between getting out profitably and being stuck with some.

    It is important to have an idea of the fixture lists for any IPD buy and stick to the plan of when you are going to sell, but with cheap regular goal scorers and goalkeepers I think there should be decent opportunities to keep playing them and refreshing for IPDs when the opportunity arises on an ongoing basis. There is going to be some 10-20% swings the day before and the day after games, so there should be a fair bit of opportunity to make gains off short trading on those too.. However, my hope/expectation is that the bigger returns are still to be made off buying the sensible players and sitting back and watching the gains roll in....



  • @Baydog

    I think a lot of conversation on the forum that were seeing at the minute about volatility is echoing where we were a year ago when players like Pogba (who was then the golden goose) and others like VVD (who had been an elite PB defender before the matrix changes), as well as the likes of Neymar, Sterling and others were getting a kicking day by day, and ppl like Vardy and Christian Stuani were rising. Ppl were screaming about short termism and rug pulling, but it was just a trend. IPDs were new so there was huge value in the previously worthless, and the old dividend structure was pretty much being rejected. I know I was one of the loudest. But I was pretty green at this point, as I think a lot of ppl are now. U have to go through something like that to learn.

    Of course the current dividend structure is not being abandoned. Theres oceans of value there. But at this moment, even that cannot really compete with 10 × IPD. I've got my ticket to a probable top forward today in Neymar. Hes massively under priced against the new divs and we will see that acknowledged next month, but even he cant compete with a 25p defender who's offering 80% return with a single goal. Not in the short term. Hence the short termism and the volatility at present.

    2 huge things are gonna happen. Were gonna have NASDAQ transparency which will show that somebody like TAA is in fact not tanking just because one 300 share offer which will be very soon snapped up, is merely cramping his style and every other holders valuation, which is what matters, is significantly higher. The other thing is that this IPD promo, which I must sound like I hate, I dont, will finish. It's a hell of an offer but its causing an extremely skewed market at this moment



  • @MickTurbo I think Mick is spot on here. We've been in similar situations before (we are becoming wily old foxes on here now ha!) and looking beyond the next few days/weeks starts to come natural as you get more experienced on football index

    We won't panic but i can sympathise with those that will/are. Done it myself a couple of times in my first year on FI, but this little period of volatility will be over in a flash come the introduction of Nasdaq depth, and the 5xIPD promo ending will also quell the madness.

    I have never felt so good about FI EVER until now - I've even deposited an extra 20% of my investment worth, which is big for a cautious tight arse like me!

    It's a shame that I am wishing away September so that the IPD's are no longer the driving force behind most trading decisions (which is coincidentally what happened when they were first introduced in October 2018, 2 months after I joined, and i was close to leaving because of it! But wise old heads said similar positive stuff then to what I am saying now, and I am still here, more confident than ever!)

    The index is going to be amazing, it really is!

    This is just short term pain for long term gain (and other such cliches) ;)



  • @ScouseSte I have actually bought into the IPD promo with a couple of players and I could get huge yields from them. But like I said, I'm not buying Jeff Hendricks and Jimmy Briand, I've bought Alcacer who's actually decent and has EL. I will sell if his price goes nuts, but if it doesnt I'll keep him and be happy to do so. Also bought Francisco Caputo which I will acknowledge is a bit more punt territory but his goal involvement last year, and Sassuolos easy early fixtures make him in my eyes, a decent punt. So it's like ppl have said before, buy a player for 2 reasons.



  • @Baydog said in How is everyone feeling about their trading prospects?:

    @MickTurbo @Erased-Citizen

    It is a savage garden the IPD X5 game with order books, but played right the opportunities are pretty outrageous. As you boys say, there is going to be a fine line between getting out profitably and being stuck with some.

    It is important to have an idea of the fixture lists for any IPD buy and stick to the plan of when you are going to sell, but with cheap regular goal scorers and goalkeepers I think there should be decent opportunities to keep playing them and refreshing for IPDs when the opportunity arises on an ongoing basis. There is going to be some 10-20% swings the day before and the day after games, so there should be a fair bit of opportunity to make gains off short trading on those too.. However, my hope/expectation is that the bigger returns are still to be made off buying the sensible players and sitting back and watching the gains roll in....

    It is indeed a Savage Garden!

    6D73D743-0FAC-442B-BBCF-49E892A403D0.jpeg



  • My holds are eligible for IPD's but I'm not getting involved with the short term trading. It doesn't really suit me; I'm happy to sit tight and any IPD's I have off current holds are a bonus that'll I'll use to top up.

    Fair play if anyone can time it right and make a decent wedge out of it!



  • @MickTurbo

    Spot on mate



  • @ScouseSte

    I have been through several sustained periods of doubt since being on The Dex, and I have pulled my money completely more than once.

    Long story short, I know for a fact that I am not worried about FI and the future as I have not considered pulling money. But it is also important that the masses are able to understand and enjoy the platform, so it is important that it returns to some kind of normality and predictability soon - which I am confident it will post the X5 IPD promo....



  • I'm still working on getting my goalkeeper holds up to decent numbers. I'll be treating the volatility caused by the platform changes and IPD promo as an opportunity to pick up keepers as soon as they concede a goal. I figure this should work well longer term too.

    Even when we're out of the promo, a 2p clean sheet on a 70p keeper is 2.85% 🤷‍♂️



  • @Yellow

    I am going to keep refreshing my keepers for IPDs on an ongoing basis I reckon. 2 clean sheets in a month 4p and there could be PB wins amongst that... I don't know at what price point it stops becoming attractive, but you'd hope for a PB increase on them in the summer so it becomes a good option again...



  • Another side to the volatility.

    About 10 minutes ago, the Metz keeper Oukidja had a buy price of 36p and a sell of 25p. I've been keeping an eye on it and buy went up to 44p and sell to 40p.

    Aaaaand then Lille scored and he's back to 35p and 27p.

    It just goes to show the opportunity is there.

    @Baydog when I get my laptop back up and running (hard disk is fudged) I think I'll be getting a spreadsheet to help me keep a close eye on the IPD windows of my keepers. If they're expiring I'll be setting sell orders at a reasonable level when they're playing ahead of a clean sheet and then just keep buying dips when they concede.


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