OB Newbie thoughts

  • Not new to the Index, been around 2 years. Complete newbie to order books. This isnt a doom and gloom post, nor a 'defend FI at all costs' post. Just my honest, unbiased thoughts.

    • Price volatility looks a bit much, a little on the scary side? Could just be because Ive never used OBs before and much preferred the older easier way of trading. Even trading for these enhanced IPDs, am I right in saying most scorers/assisters are losing more after midnight than they gained in IPDs that day?

    • I have a considerable amount (for me anyway) in here, and am grateful to still be around 70% up on the All Time figure, after the big drops. I just dont know what happens from here? Most users around here are very confident in looking forward 6-12 months from now. I have much confidence in FI, but this trip into the unknown is a little daunting. I am a slow and steady trader, not one to go for massive gains and take massive losses.

    • Take the £200 referral thing. Firstly, there is zero incentive for a new user to join apart from £10? The previous £50 each offer was great. But, importantly, I could explain FI to potential new customers with a degree of ease. Now with OBs I dont even know where to start. Yes there is a Buy and Sell button, but we all know it isnt as simple as that. Maybe the experienced OB guys round here are laughing, gobbling up current prices and have zero worries going forward, but for someone like me this is just a little on the daunting side.

    Not looking to cash in by any means, and I certainly wont be throwing new money in, but just needed to put this out there. Really love the FI product, has made football a lot more fun than usual for me and intend to stick with it.

    My major concern now is the 'bet what you can afford'. Had just over 5k invested under the older simplistic system. This system seems more volatile price wise and I dont know if I can 'afford' to have that stake here? Not financially strained, but just have this inkling of fear of the unknown.

    Sorry for the rambling.

  • @Leclerc I think a few others have mentioned, but the volatility isn't that much different, it's just you that you didn't see it before. Think we will see it calm down further once the 5*IPD goes.

    You are right about the complexities though. I use to struggle to explain everything to a new user about it before and I'd be screwed now.

    And the referral - to be honest, you'd hope people were trying out the product on its own, but it's in line with most gambling sites new user offers. But if I was a big trader looking to invest a load of money in the product, it would seem pretty stingy. I'd like to see something that clarifies straight away that it's a gambling product- maybe 10-20% deposit bonus for deposits over 100 quid, but the bonus is paid as shares in a random top 200 player

  • @Moukoko appreciate the reply.

    I know what you mean, it was always volatile but 'looks' even more so now with the vast increases and drops.

    For the experienced users, fantastic. For people who have used FI for a while like me, but have no OB experience and have no clear visible indicators of a players price (I dont buy that the sell price is the true indicator as that is just what someone is willing to pay? Whether its a lowball bid or or not?)

    I dont know. This is all just a bit much for my little brain. Genuinely unsure as to whether this kind of trading is for me? Was even looking forward to trading the enhanced IPDs but the huge drops after the 10p/20ps are dished out are too volatile for me.

  • I really feel like people feel they NEED to TRADE, you literally have 3 years to cash out a player...........

    It’s very volitile in the very short term.

    Just think about why you want to hold a player.

  • @Tom77 , Yes I know I have 3 years to cash in on a player. That doesnt mean I cant have a slight worry about what's going on now? The volatility is concerning as an OB newbie, thats what I am saying. I do not feel the NEED to trade, and even if I did that should not be a problem?

    Remembering why I bought these players (plus the new dividend table, and other users' excitement) is what is helping me maintain a level of confidence.

  • Yeah the volatility is just now reflecting in your port value which is pretty scary. On the flip side at least the port value is a true reflection, so if you cut your losses on someone you dont get twice as much wiped from your port value if you get me. I think/hope in the long run it'll be a better system. Easy for someone newish like me to say that as I was quite well prepped for it through the forum and didn't have too much invested in dead shares.

  • @Leclerc ignore the volatility, its caused in parts by buying and selling for IPDs! Focus on what you want, do you want to trade young potential or go for divs etc! Ignore the short term (unless you know how to make money on flipping players!)

  • Also if you're trading for IPDs, volatility is surely the nature of the beast. The strong PB holds have been stronger if anything. Kimmich, KDB, Neymar have been very steady since Thursday.

  • @Leclerc Like the post alot, sums up my position pretty well. I'm really tempted to watch from afar until things settle. Easier said then done as I've around £8k in which whilst not dependent on, obviously don't want to lose.

  • @Pizarro as much as I want to watch from afar as things settle, I feel the only way to counter our recent losses might be pump more money in and take advantage of the drops on some players (Messi, Rashford, Bruno etc). Once the season gets going and things level out, hopefully these guys will be back to prices not too far from what they were pre-OB.

    It's a risk I know, but I'm slowly topping up whenever I see a drop that looks to be due to knee jerk reactions, people selling Kane after one quiet game for example.

    I'm not putting any more money in at the moment, but I have done since OB came in.

  • @howsthebacon ive done some top ups today on oyarzabal ( on bench after covid0 and sancho ( loss of confidence) plus yesterday got TAA cheap. i think people would be wise to top up on offers ignore the blue numbers and realise that people are taking money out of holds to get on the unprecedented ipd offers

  • @howsthebacon Kimmich and KDB haven’t kicked a ball yet. Neymar dropped tonight atm after quiet half.

  • @chaps1988 Sorry I meant that those guys had stayed stable even during Thursday and they don't have games this weekend. Bruno/Rashford/Neymar/Mbappe all dropped.

    It's interesting to see the reaction the share prices are having, FI may have to look at it.

  • @Marksandygill said in OB Newbie thoughts:

    @Leclerc ignore the volatility, its caused in parts by buying and selling for IPDs! Focus on what you want, do you want to trade young potential or go for divs etc! Ignore the short term (unless you know how to make money on flipping players!)

    Exactly even in the old system these IPD payouts would cause a trend towards IPD players, its the current trend and IPDs are all about short term trading. Its just the current cycle and order books make them more achievable but the reality is that order books will make all types of trading work better not just short term

  • The referral is really interesting. Thats FI acknowledging that the market needs new money to get more money into the Index to prop it up (in the same way as the cash drop). But it doesn't seem to be doing much at all!

    I really hope they got some more ideas to stop the end of IPD promo drop! Hopefully something will work...

  • Well, this aged well unfortunately. My initial post was yesterday afternoon before the carnage happened.

    At a brief glance, a player dropping £2 in price (from £8 to £6) is nowhere near as bad as before in terms of him losing "120k/180k" in number of shares. That £2 drop can be caused by just a few traders pissing about with the "300" shares figure. So its not as bad as perceived, but wow holy shit that was a tough night!

    Dont even know what to say. All of this cant only be excessive IPD trading.

    Luckily (or unluckily) I didnt sell anyone. Any paper profit is mostly gone. This goes back to the initial post

    • How on earth does a newbie, or even just an OB newbie go about this market with the same optimism as an experienced OB trader? Sure, after last nights carnage it is very convenient for me to ask that, but its just not as simple as "oh everyone is cheap now, top up on x y and z"

    • Imagine if you signed up a friend recently, and they experienced all the drops from thursday, and then last nights carnage? You can fill them with all the confidence of the future you want but at what expense? To sit in the red for how many weeks, months to come, until mid 2021? I dont know

  • @Leclerc I’d be absolutely mortified if I’d recommended FI to a friend in the last few weeks. Friendships could literally be lost by it.

  • @Richio , this is the thing mate, with this referral push (especially if many were not around for the £50 for each new signup and the referrer thing), there will have been plenty new signups.

    Of course its a gambling website, its not always upwards etc etc, but anyone new who's even thrown in £100 since before thursday, or even before last night would be horrified looking at the % drops. Sure they can get their money back in the first 7 days but the lasting impression?

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