Perfect Storm



  • Well this is not a great evening and feels horrible and although FI is not a stock market I would suggest you try to think like it is.

    When markets crash they usually recover quickly and those that sell normally sell lower than the prices recover quickly to. However this feels like it has been coming and today/tonight all the conditions required for panic happened.

    Firstly there are 3 conditions that set this up:

    1. Global pandemic that makes individuals worry about there finances.
    2. Removal of the old overly generous FI backed instant sell
    3. New more volatile system that many traders do not understand with ridiculously generous 5x IPD that encourage gambling not trading.

    Then there today were triggers that set the ball rolling.

    1. Kane looks horrendous so IPD traders sell to get on others.
    2. Neymar sent off so misses all 5x IPD matches
    3. Sancho transfer to Man U looking unlikely so traders want out as he looked overpriced.

    Therefore this starts a mass panic and those that now realise there money/gains are not guaranteed panic and list at lower and lower prices whilst big traders hoover these cheap shares up knowing in a few weeks things will look much better.

    My guess is there will be a big deposit bonus soon - prices rise and all that sold out tonight regret it.

    My advice is switch off and go to bed.



  • Great post Fletch. Wholeheartedly agree with all of it.

    We do need FI to come out with something tomorrow AM about this, what they are doing about it and how they will avoid it happening again. Confidence is key here and it will take a while to rebuild - even as prices start to rebound.

    The bargains out there now are outstanding if you have the nerve.



  • I am not sure how many trades are going through at the low ball bids that we are seeing but yes I have taking the opportunity to grab a few shares at low prices.

    A solution to this is very difficult I actually believe the 5x IPD’s was a mistake as it was too generous and promotes short term gambling too much.

    I actually think there needs to be another way of valuing players as the current system encourages low ball offers and price manipulation is too easy. Until they identify a solution and fairer way I think it will hard to move on.

    Hopefully they communicate tomorrow or we could be in for a difficult week or two



  • @Fletch as I mentioned on the other thread, yes it’s eye watering stuff, but you need to look at it as an opportunity. In a few moths time when the market is growing into the new dividend increase, ppl will look back and say “fuck me, did so and so really drop that low on sunday 13th sept? I can’t believe I didn’t buy some”.
    The opportunity’s tonight are mind boggling. Apart from selling players that haven’t really dropped to buy into these bargains this not much I can do. I have bugger all in the bank so it’s very frustrating. I’ve wanted Cherki for months and he’s just dropped from £6 to £4.30 in one day! 🤦🏼‍♂️
    I did get 250 Neymar @ £8.30 tho. Nice. 😏 He was £10.30 this morning! There is pleasure amongst this pain 😁



  • It is a perfect storm for the reasons stated but also because the new system makes things LOOK far worse than they are and they bring on panic which drives down confidence and prices.

    I have dozens of players with no IS. Now we all know those players must have some value. Who wouldn't buy Declan Rice for 10p? But because he shows at IS £0, the mid price becomes £0.80 even though we all know next bids will be well north of £1.

    It is bad, but it LOOKS far worse.

    Either hold sell some and rebuy the bargains while prices are low, but don't panic.



  • @Fletch very good point re: short term gambling. I thought it was the OB that caused the volatility but it was the IPD and OB mixed together. Felt like you were almost making bets because if your player didn't score you lost a lot of money. It wasn't what most of us got into this for but it was tempting and people began to react as a result.



  • I wish i had some cash to throw in i am seeing so many bargains but i haven't got the money to buy them ,this will never happen again ! I hope who has the cash is buying them all they will make a killing



  • @Fletch I've said on here and I've said to ppl in whatsapp groups today, earlier on this is, when it was looking like a bad day, not a crash day, that this IPD offer is I'll judged. The only day I can compare to this was almost a year ago to the day. It was later in september.

    That was caused by a rejection of the dividend structure. The dividend structure is now incredibly strong but would probably have to be 5 × stronger still, in order to compete with this current IPD offer.

    What would have probably helped today, is if PB was won by some of the really big hitters. Instead it's been won by players at the cheap end, and Neymar has been sent off and Kane by all accounts has had a nightmare.

    Coupled with other factors you've mentioned, this has caused a big rejection of the top end. Part of me thinks call a halt on the 5 × IPDs, the other part of me thinks that doing so would add fuel to the fire because probably large swathes of the user base would not recognize the damage it's doing.

    So maybe it's a case of just buckling up for some serious turbulence between now and the end of the month. I can do that, but there can be serious damage in that time if nothings done to stop the rot.



  • I literally sold sancho at 13.50 less than 10min before the drop to £10 and I didn't even notice it. Got fucking lucky there!



  • @MickTurbo

    I really am not sure what they can do but it has to support medium term holding - something that encourages holding for say 30-90 days. That way they earn commission but traders are encouraged not to act like they are this evening



  • @MickTurbo Trouble is mick we got a couple more weeks till this promo ends and something has to be done to protect our positions here but what🤔



  • @Fletch I think long term holding is very much encouraged by the excellent dividends on offer, the TOTM, the road map we now have. But then theyve blew all of that out of the water with a gigantic IPD offer. As I see it, that's the problem.

    Yes OBs are uncharted territory for most. Yes we need that NASDAQ transparency yesterday, and yes the frozen ticker doesnt help. But the vast majority of the market is undermined by this IPD offer. We will come through it, but theyve put the whole job in a right pickle with what on the face of it was a very generous offer, but what were now seeing is symptomatic of a complete shift in focus. Its only till the end of this month but we now face a testing time. Many will flee, many already have. Yes theyll regret it. I'm lucky enough to have that perspective, but I also remember a time when I didnt have it

    @Gazz127 it's hard to say at this point mate. Maybe start by getting a grip of these bid zones. I dont know. It's not like they can switch off IS. And it's not like theres an obvious fix like a div increase. For me, call off the 5 × IPD offer. I know that will bring back lash, but it will.also protect the market



  • @Fletch super match day points or a boost to TOTM



  • Have we got a little stabilisation🤔



  • @MickTurbo it's such a good point and I must admit, being new and this being the norm to me, it never dawned on me. But a product like this should be 100% aiming itself at long term players and the IPD offer was very short term. They are trying to take the market from the betting sites, and you know what, there is a portion of gamblers who'd prefer something like this. But like 80% of that market want quick hits, they want the dopamine hit, they want to know they've made a good investment right away and then dump the shares. That's what they're bringing over and maybe FI should have been happier with slower growth rather than potentially bringing in people who aren't in it for the long run.



  • @Gazz127 only lost £40 in the last minute so it’s improving 🤣



  • @Webbinho 😂😉



  • You know things are bad when newuser45669393 just become newuser0.45669393.



  • @Gazz127 still dropping here



  • @howsthebacon said in Perfect Storm:

    @MickTurbo it's such a good point and I must admit, being new and this being the norm to me, it never dawned on me. But a product like this should be 100% aiming itself at long term players and the IPD offer was very short term. They are trying to take the market from the betting sites, and you know what, there is a portion of gamblers who'd prefer something like this. But like 80% of that market want quick hits, they want the dopamine hit, they want to know they've made a good investment right away and then dump the shares. That's what they're bringing over and maybe FI should have been happier with slower growth rather than potentially bringing in people who aren't in it for the long run.

    Everything you're saying was being discussed a year ago. It was right then and it's right now.


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