Passive vs Active trading

  • I am sure this has been covered in one of the post Brown Sunday threads but thought it was worth a headline.

    Do people think the full OB environment has changed the game from a trading style perspective?

    I am a pretty passive trader, don't really have the time to properly monitor and get in and out of trades all the time. So I think my portfolio is going to stink at certain times, like now, because money is being moved about so rapidly - heightened by x5 ipds i guess. (I do think we are at the bottom right now btw, so everything is exacerbated)

    This means there must be more money to be made if you can be active and reasonably easy money in some cases. Which is annoying as i don't really have the time and some of my players are sitting at a loss and Im not selling to free up cash until the time is right.

    Back to the original Q, I think if you trust in the intrinsic value of your holds then you just need to ignore the port value noise and passive trading can still be a thing? Looking for reassurance and/or biscuits 🐕

  • @TotalPunt definitely money to be made short term if you have the time and skill.

    I don’t have either so I’ll continue to pick div winners and wait for things to turn around.

    I used to buy lower end for CA but I see that as too risky so I’ve listed all of mine at 50p higher than current and if they sell in the next 2 years I’ll be happy with my 50-60% profit; but I’m not going to look for others to try the same.

    So in short for me it’s keepers and any PB/MB holds I can afford when they dip (which apparently is hourly🤣)

  • @TotalPunt I hate looking at my port sometimes! I think 9 months ago I should have bought players like Kimmich and De Bruyne etc and then just logged in 2.5 years later!

    I would have seen none of this and I expect I'd have more money than putting it in a bank for the same period of time!

  • @Marksandygill hindsight is a wonderful thing. We need to put our minds together and work out who the next Kimmich and KDB are...

    I mean it's obviously Jamal Lewis and Jeff Hendrick but the haters will say I'm wrong.

  • I’ve done much the same as @Sav2000 and listed my young cheap cap app players 40-50p above current buy price and focused on Pb players. Still have 101 players now up from 80ish a few months ago. Ideally like to reduce that and have more shares in current Pb holds

  • @howsthebacon mate are you just picking Newcastle players out of hope? :)
    Cherki and Camavinga, however they are as expensive as Kimmich and KDB!
    It's difficult, you want players that create, pass lots but also assist and score goals!

  • Right now, active trading is the way. At every point this season, I've found it would have been better simply to sell a player whenever they have a decent rise. That's true now more than ever, because they can drop very quickly and dramatically, and chances are you'll be able to get back on near your previous price anyway.

    Who knows how profitable passive trading may prove to be, if you're patient. The structure is in place for big growth. I've always held more long term but right now, if I could get my money out reasonably to go more short/medium term and capitalise on the current discounts, volatility and extreme opportunities, then I would. It was painful not having a large balance on Sunday night!

  • I think if you're a passive trader then you need to tell yourself to ignore daily portfolio swings.

    If you're in a player for 2 - 3 years then checking them in your portfolio several times a day conflicts with that approach, or at least if you are regularly checking, you need to put it to the back of your mind to an extent and don't get too carried away if he's tanking or flying right now.

    FI market themselves as a long term bet but all the promotions they do encourage volatility and short term swings. It's easy to get hooked back in but I'm sure that with wall to wall football for the next few years, good PB holds will see good div returns and capital appreciation.

  • Passive trading can still be a thing for sure, but it's just important to acknowledge some fo the differences. For example, you could make use of the offer function and put some offers in above the current price and therefore take advantage of an in play event without having to be active.

    Regardless, I still plan to have the majority of money in long term holds that can make the most of the PB divs on offer, then after a year or two of holding them will be a bit more active in timing the exit. So yes, it's a bit different but can still be passive. I also think the opportunities to flip short term will become more and more difficult.

  • Hi buddy, I think both stategies were and remain equally viable. Clearly with the market volatility at the moment quick flipping can show some dramatic profits in the short term, like someone else mentioned on this thread, if you'd had any cash to invest on Sunday night you would have done very well by Monday morning. This has also been true in the past when the market was stable. However as you suggested in your question there is no reason why longer holds can not deliver you good results with long term growth in value and dividend yeilds. As always and in both scenarios it will be down to your skill ( and a little luck) in buying the right player at the right time for succsess.

  • @TotalPunt

    I definitely intend to trade passive for the most part. I will keep the same strategy and same profile of player, set sell orders at a price I'd be happy at achieving for ones I believe for some reason I could sell high and buy back cheaper... I don't really want to have to trade actively, but I have set aside a proportion of my pot to do this as there are good opportunities off some of the volatility. The rest I am going to hold to win divs and make some CA, and sell when I think they are going to have reason to drop off and I could buy back (the usual pattern where people often sell PB players in March and buy back in the summer / start of the season)

  • @Marksandygill you know I'm taking the piss right? I avoid Toon players like the plague haha! ASM and Dubravka were the only ones I've ever held and whilst I think ASM will move on to bigger things, might not be for another year or so.

    I think Lewis was a great signing though but it was obviously tongue in cheek.

    And yep the potential superstars are already expensive based on their potential! I'm considering looking more at the lesser known youngsters who will develop into steady players as opposed to world class, bit harder though.

  • @Baydog is there a reason why the cycle includes a sell off of good PB players in March?

    Is it to avoid the inevitable drop during the summer season when there is no football usually? This year we have the Euros.

  • @Number5 said in Passive vs Active trading:

    @Baydog is there a reason why the cycle includes a sell off of good PB players in March?

    Is it to avoid the inevitable drop during the summer season when there is no football usually? This year we have the Euros.

    Yes. People will start looking at PB players in their port who have no prospect of a move and no summer international competitions to get on players who have transfer spec/media appeal divs and international tournaments.. Their year graphs will often show a dip from march and rise again in august

  • Even with a good understanding of Order Books, I will stay a largely passive trader. Mainly, I don't have enough to make active trading viable for the amount of time it takes; I easily spend enough time on here to make active work.

    I am happy to list some players at +50p but firmly believe that natural growth will exceed 50p in the next 12 months therefore I'm taking my time. No offers, no bids. If I buy, I market buy it might seem daft but I think you have to be incredibly skilled to be an active trader and have a good wedge behind you to compensate bad trades.

  • @TotalPunt ill trade both styles now and ill even do short term trading on my long term holds. Continuously buying low selling high as long as i can generate Profit doing so. The biggest change to my trading is that i wont touch any player over £5 now and that’s because of the 50p over on offers. The ability to set a 10% or more profit on this end of the market is a game changer

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