Confusing situation with Bayern.

  • Can someone explain something to me... Lewandowski is selling for around 2.81 atm with a slightly higher buy price. He is on for 30p in play dividends per share. You could buy him now and get those dividends, unless I missed something? He was 2.90 before the match started! How has he decreased?

    Muller is only at £1.34. With the 20p back, he is basically selling at 1.14 when he was at 1.30 before the match. It's very strange.

  • Football index logic

  • IPDs were already priced in pre-match for Lewandowski and Muller.

    Sane and Gnabry performances indicate Muller and Lewandowsi will struggle to compete for PB wins this season.

  • I'm hoping to sell Son this weekend, I can get 4p below what I paid - too late for me to work out whether its worth flogging all the shares and just topping up about 30 lewandowskis for the divs.

    Guess I'd be lumbered with a much higher average price on Lewandowski but...

  • @Timmy some people are trying to sell, they wait for a good game and sell up, which lowers the price! Seems odd but makes sense for some!😁

  • @howsthebacon I bought some today for some potential PB and Divs. Even if he only scores 1 more during the promo, I'll hopefully not be down if I need to IS

  • Thanks all! I understand that Sane and Gnarby's performances might worry some about diminishing Lewa's dividend potential but that is not so different to the situation before the game! It is a shame Bayern have so many 'forwards' with Kimmich hovering up all the mid dividends. I also expected more of an increase from him after 20p IPDs.

    Whatever the logic for the madness, I'm happy as I am heavily invested in Bayern! Should make around 2% of port value from IPDs tonight

  • Similarly, does anyone know why Anthony Lopes has dropped in price after keeping a clean sheet for Lyon tonight?

    He currently has a buy price of 71p, and will be getting paid 10p in IPDs tonight due to this clean sheet.

    I am confused.

  • @ConnorBWFC don't ask...just top up ;)

  • @Timmy You only get IPD's for first 30 days. If you held for 31+ days and it was crystal clear early on that Gnabry would take the Forward PB the only way to "win" tonight with Lewa or Muller would be too sell on the peak, hence dropping the price. Then maybe buy back cheaper before next match (or later tonight) with IPD refreshed shares.

  • @Martyn-B cheers Martyn, that makes sense. What confused me about Lewa was that his peak was before the game. I sold a few expired ones just before kick off. In this situation, the astute seller would be much better off buying after goals/assists etc than just before kick off. Falling well behind Gnarby explains it to a degree but it is quite odd that Lewa is 10p cheaper now than he was before a match in which he scored and made two goals.

  • @Timmy Football index can be whacky sometimes. I remember about 16 months ago, Messi won PB 3 games in a row, and dropped each time. I was chewing on the phone in disbelief. It was not long after Ronaldo’s rape charge, and Messi’s price was taking a hammering off the back of Ronaldo’s price collapse. Traders were now allergic of Messi too. They were behaving like Messi had been in the hotel room too, holding Ronaldo’s dick or something. Ridiculous. 🤦🏼‍♂️

  • @Valhalla that is really weird! I guess that the masses are unpredictable/make strange decisions at points. Like paying excessive buy now prices for players!

  • @Timmy yes lots of strange trading going on. We’ve all done it. Our player has a poor game and someone else plays a blinder, we naturally want a piece of that pie. But cannibalising your port (selling off cheap) to buy whoever did well that night is the single biggest profit killer and mistake you can make on FI. You have sold too cheap and bought too expensive. It’s just shite trading. When u can resist following the flock to the latest “hot” player, you’re already on your way to becoming a great trader.

  • @Timmy prices usually rise in the hours before a game, normally peaking around the PB/MB deadline of 4pm and stabilising moving into the game. Then it's all up and down dependent both on their own performances, performances of their team-mates, and other teams' players performances. And probably other things too!

    In this enhanced IPD period, a lot of people are also hoping to "recycle shares" (ie selling their older non-IPD eligible shares and buying new ones to pick up the IPDs) so that can trigger price movements too

  • I'm confused by Brandon Williams.

    He's rocketed... since the Telles deal came to light...

    Is that because people are expecting him to be loaned out? Woulda thought he'd crash. Happy to wrong mind.

  • @Dan-The-Man said in Confusing situation with Bayern.:

    I'm confused by Brandon Williams.

    He's rocketed... since the Telles deal came to light...

    Is that because people are expecting him to be loaned out? Woulda thought he'd crash. Happy to wrong mind.

    I suspect one trader was trying to get rid at a large discount by offering for sale. On news of Telles they have decided to delist and just take the IS price.
    The same as happened with Higuain and others - delisting to IS.

  • @Robin-Friday this is a poisonous comment. Lewandowski will have a MASSIVELY greater yield than Gnabry and Sane. Those 2 are hugely overpriced at £4 - low PB, no MB, no move likely. For example Messi is only an extra £1 and will probably win his entire price back in divs this season! Check out Lewa’s stats last season. And that was with half a season of averageness before Flick came in and transformed Bayern. He’s 50% the price of Gnabry and Sane. He plays 90mins regularly. Gnabry and Sane will be rotated and subbed after 60 a lot (Bundesliga have 5 subs and Bayern have lots of options, but Lewa always plays 80-90). It’s early season, there will be way more rotation when CL and cup games arrive. Lewa is safe from all that. Bayern haven’t signed a backup striker because Lewa is so good and fit, so forget the fact he’s 32. He’s in the best form of his life, at the most dominant team in Europe, and not moving anywhere. Gnabry had 1 of his 5 gun days tonight, but Lewa does it all the time! Yes I hold, season long for me. So many easy exit points if you need one with CL KOs in spring and Euros. So many easy IPD refresh points. He’ll be one of the top 5 yielders this season imo.

  • @chaps1988

    haha "poisonous comment"
    If you're lucky the dividends you pick up this season might cover his value depreciation from now.
    All downhill from here.

  • @chaps1988 I agree that Lewa will be a consistent scorer but what you are saying about Gnabry and Sane simply isn't true. Sane will haul multiple times this season and Gnabry is fantastic and improving all the time. I watched them a lot last season and throughout the UCL campaign, where Gnabry was unplayable. Before the match tonight, Gnabry was only £1 more expensive than Lewa, despite being seven years younger. Last season Gnabry exceeded 200 points on seven occasions – Lewa did it eight times. And everyone who knows Bayern knows Gnarby isn’t at threat of regular rotation. Your post is really ill-informed.

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